Lookout

18z 3km nam showing 50 plus knot gusts moving right up along 85.

This hrrr map is one of the more unique maps i've seen...going to be a wall of high winds crossing the carolinas. Showing as high as 75 knots in places. crazy. Saw quite a bit of sun here this afternoon..so tornado threat has certainly increased. Going to have to watch these storms over ga closely.

There is excellent model agreement now. Every model has shown these winds increasing over nc/sc, including the wrf/hmon. The shear amount of real estate that could see 50 to 70mph wind gusts is incredible. Right now, it seems likely to get 45 to 55 based on the hrrr/3km nam....but as downeast says, this forecasts are based on models that don't have a good handle on just how deep/strong michael is currently so it could be a bit higher but i hope not. HRRR is showing gusts of 70 to 80mph all the way into sc alone and based on the storm being 967mb now I really don't want the power to go out because if it does, it could be out a while.

12z euro has come north a little on the 12z run...in particular over the carolinas.

i've been wondering too...guess after that debacle they have him staying home. he would have been a huge distraction for sure. It's a shame he totally destroyed his reputation.

this station is gusting to 130mph http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/michael#29.968,-84.265,9,8,180980,1

nhc ups the winds to 150 923mb

that is one of the more interesting descriptions i've ever heard about it... fascinating. thanks for that. wow. hard to find the words...if it's not officially a cat 5 at landfall, that would almost seem unfair to michael.

yep, a big difference between a storm that is strengthening at landfall vs weakening. This is wild to me but nhc has it as still a 100mph hurricane as it enters southwest georgia. damn.

I don't know, i understand not over hyping but widespread 55 to 65mph winds is a pretty big deal....never mind if it gusts to 70....especially considering how wet the ground is in nc. If there are winds that widespread, power outages could be quite widespread which means some could be without power for a while. Irma was a weak system technically when it impacted georgia yet the impacts were very high and some were without power for days....and for those without power for days it's a big deal. FFCs discussion is ominous but not unexpected to most of us i'm sure. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1033 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... ...Hurricane Conditions Becoming More Likely For Portions of Central Georgia... All attention is on powerful Hurricane Michael as it churns rapidly toward the Florida coast as a Major Category 4 storm. Concern for the local area is that the storm will now be starting from a more intense initial condition at landfall and increasing forward speed will not allow as much weakening as previously thought. That is not to say we are anticipating Hurricane force sustained winds as this is still possible but perhaps not likely. But what we will see is widespread Hurricane force wind gusts within the Hurricane warned area. As we have seen from several storms the past two years, the impacts of these gusts to the local area are on par with sustained winds for other areas with less in the way of trees. Therefore, we are very much playing up the gust and Hurricane impact potential and will be upgrading a portion of the Tropical Storm warning to a Hurricane warning with this next issuance. Have also increased the tornado threat for SE portions of the forecast area beginning this afternoon and continuing through early Thu. Flood impacts still looks on track with some flash flooding possible with the anticipated 3 to 5 inches and locally higher amounts.

i know it's in knots and in general it shows 55 to 60 knots over western nc, not seeing any 70 knot gusts until it reaches eastern nc. Hard to believe it's not a bit over done though but Regardless, certainly an interesting development. 3km nam also shows 50 plus mph gusts in the upstate. Also of note, hrrr and 3km nam are showing 40 to 45 knot gusts getting close to atlanta too. Nothing earth shattering but probably a bit higher than expected there.

yeah and what sticks out in my mind is how rare it is to have winds like this there...god knows how long it's been so there are going to be a lot of old trees coming down, never mind the rest. sorry to hear...that sucks. insane. now close to andrew territory. 12z hrrr is showing some interesting high gusts of 55 to 60 knots over the upstate/western nc, That would be something else if it verifies. Shows 45 to 50 knots here. (and brings whats left of the eyewall through here.

thought this tweet by ryan was noteworthy

3km nam is even a bit worrisome here with the nw eyewall located right over me for a few runs now. Considering how strong it is, It seems a given now, short of a sudden right turn, that i should get some good gusts here. I'm happy to see FFC decided to extend the tropical storm warnings to athens/here. As bad as it will be at the coast, i think the damage across south/central georgia to trees is going to be scary extensive. A lot of folks are going to be without power for quite a long time.

I was talking about an ewc right before landfall....Unless there is some sudden intrusion of dry air or something, that seems to be the only thing possible that could limit it from maxing out as it comes in. yep they are being very conservative....i'm trying not to be too critical since there is still time to adjust but the winds are likely under estimated for sure. The euro has tropical storm force gusts all the way to athens now. I've seen the euro over estimates wind gusts at imes but based on this mornings run and other modeling which are a bit further north, i think a watch is probably a good idea from lagrange to athens at least. I am a bit concerned that areas in central georgia could be caught off guard with how strong the winds are.

wrf now gets it down into the upper 930s at landfall. Unless there is an EWC, sure looks like a bad one for the panhandle and well inland. uk ticked ever so slightly south but it's in the noise range. wrf/hmon continue to be very consistent with their track..likely bringing 60 to 75mph gusts through much of central ga. If such a track verifies...and Given the robust convection all models are showing on it's north/northwestern side, would expect to possibly see some fairly impressive gusts here too.. So looks like uk/euro vs everything else after landfall. (edit to add...euro came in just a touch further north.) The differences aren't huge but enough to make a pretty big difference wind wise for my back yard. FFC finally extended the TS watch north and looks pretty good now. Although an argument could be made to extend it north another row or two of counties Considering the robust convection the models are showing on the northern half of the system.. I'm excited to finally get so much needed rain but amen to that.

As jim ross once said calling a match...finally...finally...by god finally.... got some good rain from two cells yesterday totaling a little over an inch. First good rain in 2 months or so...and the worst of the never ending heat is finally over. Hoping to pick up some more before the main event with michael...which hopefully can give me at least several inches.

hopefully ffc catches up by this afternoon. fwiw, the icon, 3km nam, and rgem have come north a bit on the 12z run. eye becoming rather apparent now on satellite. I'd be a little surprised if it doesn't make cat 4 at this rate.

i would expect the possibility of power outages in or near macon for sure, depending on the exact track. It seems a given now to see high end tropical storm force gusts with a shot of hurricane force gusts if not in macon, very near by to the south. wrf/hmon have consistently shown macon going through what's left of the northeast/north eyewall. edit to add, i'm a bit puzzled why they don't have the tropical storm force watches further north. It's interesting that where they have the watches they are for winds of "20/25 knots with gusts to 40/45 knots). So if they are basing it on gusts over tropical storm force and not sustained winds, then watches should be issued for areas further north...at least to macon to augusta. even the furthest south euro is showing gusts into the 40s to near 50mph for macon.

Personally, i'm pulling for the 11am track..as that keeps the strongest winds away from here while still giving us some decent rains. I'm really nervous about getting a gfs like track and getting such strong southerly winds. We'll see how big this system is when it makes landfall but right now it's already fairly large. So i would think Even with that track though some gusts to tropical storm force is probable. Sucks the peak will be at night though.

yeah damaging winds are becoming an increasing concern here. I want the rain badly but i'm hoping the more southern tracks verify. Don't want to deal with power outages or tree damage. Worst case is A track like the wrf/hmon which would mean southerly winds here which would make for some nerve racking times with one of the last oaks I have falling toward the house. (and naturally the highest winds will be at night). The good news is the highest of the winds will be short lived and conditions overall are dry but still a lot of trees could come down given the high gust potential.

It hit 96 here yesterday. There just aren't any words to describe how absurd and disgusting that is.

desperately need the rain here, have had virtually none for two months now.

I literally screamed that a little awhile ago. My frustration level is about as high as it gets. This is some absolutely sickening garbage. There are things i need to get done but i can't find the will power to do it in this absurd heat. Can't believe we are having to put up with this type of heat in freaking october. It's already 91 here...so not just dealing with 90 degree heat, but MID 90s.....ffc is forecasting mid 94 for athens today.

it sure does, This never ending heat has been so depressing. Extremes normally average out in the long run and One would hope that maybe all this extreme heat means we will have lots of cold later but watch this winter end up being summer light.