pazzo83
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Everything posted by pazzo83
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lol and the urban core is 38-41F at 10pm in mid January. It's just not what it was....
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this subforum handles the disappointment remarkably well. the meltdowns I remember from the NYC forum were ridiculous (which is probably why we see some NYC-area posters here).
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i'd kill to be in Sierras rn. I can't even fathom the quantity of snow they are getting.
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Exact same here (29.5).
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I think we'll get sub 32 here in upper NW DC overnight tonight. But DCA might not - still hanging in the upper 30s.
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Yeah I lived in NYC from 2010-2018, and really there was one bad winter in that stretch (in terms of little snow) - 2011-12. 15/16 would've been bad had it not been for the January storm that year (and the fluke -1F reading on Valentine's day, possibly the last time Manhattan will ever dip below zero lol). But yeah it's been a struggle here.
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Frankly, I think this best captures the snow-lover's dilemma in this area - for the most part, we are f'd. The base state is becoming increasingly hostile to non-negligible likelihood significant snow events.
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Temp and dewpoint rising here in Tenley - 65/58 right now.
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i wouldn't be surprised if we hold in the low-mid 60s tonight.
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We had temps in the 80s in January (in the Shenandoah Valley) that year.
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I feel like NYC did that over approximately that period back in 2011. It was pretty epic.
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mid 50s at midnight on Dec 30/31. Sure.
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40F for the low here
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Some pretty wild local microclimate stuff going on rn: I'm at 45F in Tenleytown, a couple blocks off of Wisc Ave (so close enough to feel some effect from that built environment). It's in the mid-upper 30s just a few blocks away (further into AU Park). It's 37 at DCA.
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River is def f'ing with DCA obs rn. I'm at 46F in Tenleytown, DCA down to 39F.
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isn't your independent variable here time, so that is what you are using to try to explain the variance in your observed data (snowfall)? Let's ignore the fact that running a simple linear regression on a time series, especially when there is a cyclical component here (thus the observations are not all IID), is problematic. But if you are trying to see if a warming base state would be used, you'd think you'd include something reflecting that in your analysis (and not just time).
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you can't just run a simple linear regression on this time series because the observations aren't IID (independent and identically distributed), so your raw R-squared value isn't really useful. We know that snowfall here is cyclical.
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Don S was showing similar data regarding NYC.
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i caught the third period - didn't seem like the Rangers even had any good chances.
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Folks have tried to show you this is just objectively false in a variety of ways.
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that's true - once your sample size is big enough.
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i mean there is some statistical validity to saying "we're due" - absolutely.
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that's a great point - I guess you'd model it on some sort of distribution related to the exponential (beta maybe?)?
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yeah it's tough. Even going on a year interval, DC snowfall has a ton of year-to-year variance given its location. Another interesting thing to look at would be to see the frequency of 3"+, 6"+ and 12"+ events per year.
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yep this is what I was always taught - you need a sample size of around 30. I think it's interesting the median is decreasing but the std deviation is increasing. That would suggest that while overall snowfall is trending down just a bit, we are dealing with more all or nothing type scenarios (which would make sense if we are dealing with an underlying state of bigger storms but a warming atmosphere (meaning generally less snow here)).
