pazzo83

Over 6" of rain this month with the 0.67" and counting here in Tenleytown - we've definitely turned the corner in terms of precip lol.

we'd have to get to basically the end of the season to set the record for DCA - seems unlikely but I guess you never know. BWI and IAD have already set the records for consecutive days with no snow > 1".

yeah i mean that's what we'd expect from a slightly cold-biased model output given low position and other factors. i think the question is, on that particular model run (and we've seen this in quite a few others over the past couple of years), why - given the low position, antecedent air mass, etc - was the boundary layer so warm? What is having the model generate that as the highest probability outcome? We've seen a number of such outputs - and actual events - that should have some snow that were rain for virtually everyone. Obviously the concern here is that the base state has warmed significantly and models are starting to output scenarios - even fleeting - that reflect that. You disagree with that premise so you try to undermine any such concern. That's fine - but don't trivialize the concern.

Google gives me 4hr 20 min drive from DC to Snowshoe.

Gotta be somewhere along an axis from Snowshoe to far W MD right?

again - you are focusing on the discrete (PSA to the board - not you WF - the word is discrete, not discreet - discreet describes acting in a way so as to avoid attention) outcome relative to others in the overall model timeseries vs the fact that the model generated such an output at all - and we've seen myriad other such outputs over the past couple of years (and real outcomes that match them).

Obviously no "warmest Dec ever" for our area, but DCA is poised to record a monthly low that is actually a degree warmer than Nov (28F in Nov vs 29F this month). We've also had only 6 days at 32 or below compared to 4 days (so far) of 60+.

just keep your head buried in the sand I guess.

yeah training on re-analysis is brilliant. in this way the model can "figure out" the math on its own.

again - you are missing the point. the fact that it was a model output at any point is the concern.

those models are pure neural network models that don't incorporate any hard-coded equations like traditional weather models, right?

i don't think you are quite grasping what he's saying. all weather models are probabilistic models that factor in historical data, current observed data, and the understood mathematics that describe the atmosphere. obviously it could be wrong because models are often wrong. but let's look at the inputs again - unless you are arguing that one of those inputs was somehow corrupted for this particular model run, it is telling you that the most likely outcome is what is shown (with rain basically everywhere). i think that is where the concern lies - it is outputting an outcome that is not what one would've expected in years past, meaning it is incorporating some sort of fundamental change in terms of those inputs. I don't think the math has changed wildly (if only to improve model precision), so...

the irony is there was widespread lack of basic English understanding today wrt Chuck's post about a "transition" - but the joke is on you for mis-interpreting a map.

you must be in a cold pocket. We weren't far of the airport up in the "high altitudes" of Tenleytown - low of 31.

Last year, as others have said. The last time we had the situation we see this year was 2020, which had 46 days of 90+ and 42 days of 32 or below. 2019 had 47 days of 32 or below and 62 90+ days (one of the highest on record). This year is remarkable though, with only 24 days with freezing temps (I don't think that includes today - so make it 25). From what I can see that is the lowest on record for DCA, with the next closest being 28 days in 1969. We'll see if we break that record.

DCA hit 32F. Still looking at one of the lowest number of <=32F days in a calendar year on record. We'll have had more 90+ days than <=32F days.

i'm assuming the usage of the word "discreet" here is a board joke?

i remember skies like that in western Augusta County. Just stunning.

i think it's one thing to post very high level maps trying to establish how the pattern might evolve over the ensuing two-three weeks. But looking at individual storms and upper air temps on a localized level... come on man.

we used to have standards on these boards

man, in terms of "what needs to change for us to get some legit snow", we definitely have the precip part figured out. I think this is the wettest month of the year for me.

Yeah I'm at 36" on the year which is low but not catastrophically so. Over 5" this month helps.

3.01" in NW DC. Now drying out. Looks like it's in the low 40s on Mount Washington - has to be near a record high: https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KMWN

2" at DCA.