showmethesnow

You must be a blast at parties.

Thought it was winter already where you now live with the northerners.

Meh.... Seen better.

So you are saying I shouldn't be packing away my shorts and sandals quite yet? Though the correlation between October snowfall advance and AO state had a good run, the last few years have made it quite obvious that other factors are in play as well. So like you I will take whatever we see in this regards with a large dose of skepticism. Now as long as I continue to see decent warm anomalies over the arctic regions I will remain optimistic that we will see a weakened PV and most probably -AO. At least for the lead in to winter which is important for establishing the winter regime.

Shame we aren't seeing the full N Hemisphere on those. Would really like to see what type of blocking we getting over Greenland. As is, all the months would probably imply opportunities but January and February really stand out with great blocking over top in Canada. December and March both are showing some Atlantic ridging which would threaten systems possibly running to our west but with a little -NAO love that problem would be easily solved. I would take this in a heartbeat because we are probably looking at coastal threats throughout the winter. If this were to actually verify I would be putting my money on above normal snowfall, potentially big time, if we get a Kocin event or two mixed into the equation.

Check out the mslp anomalies for Dec/Feb. Great look. Negative departures running up and off the east coast and we have a bulls-eye of large negative departures in the 50/50 region. Can we say Coastals?

15 day GEFS shows well the seasonal transitioning to a stronger pv.

What do you normally score off with a Eastt based NAO? Impulses/Clippers running down with the jet? As far as the east coast we can score occasionally with an eastern based NAO but far to often the eastern trough is shifted east thus when it goes neg tilt that is shifted east as well. This in turn typically drives the coastal storm track farther OTS as it runs up the coast. To get a benchmark run we typically need to see a centrally or western based NAO. The Central typically is more favorable for those to the north while a western favors to the south. One thing left unsaid up to this point is that the 50/50 quite often plays a major role. Timing, placement, strength can quite often have the final say.

You talked me into it. Just used their beer finder and they have a distributor just down the road. Will probably head down later today and pick some up for our camping trip this weekend.

4 times a day? Pure madness I tell you. Pure madness.

The reaper is going to be reaping souls early this year. Oh wait.... last I heard he was going to be MIA. What a slack a**. Been too busy here to really look into things for this up coming winter so I really have no thoughts on what to possibly expect. Cansips, though not what I would call spectacular, would be acceptable in my book.

Have tried a couple of stouts with coffee and actually enjoy them. Not so sure I could get into an IPA with coffee though.

LOL. Nah, you caught me. Actually didn't look at the precip departures. Got so hung up on the 500's and following the torch in the arctic that I never even looked at them. Glancing over them now and December is probably indicative of systems running to our west and though the 500's are pretty zonal it does have the hints of troughing setting up in the west which would support that idea. Jan's precip departures look promising and its distribution would possibly suggest the threat of Miller A's? Considering that it is primo climo for cold it might not matter as much if the pv is farther north then desirable and the cold with it . Feb though I am not so sure the neg departures are result of suppression when you see the pv located so far to the north. Think the positive anomalies to our south are more a function of an active southern jet especially when I see + departures in southern Cali/Arizona into northern Baja. When I also see + precip anomalies just north of Maine I think the Cansips may be suggesting we see southern systems run off the SE coast and then turn up with the -Nao in place. Unfortunately it looks to favor a more eastern solution with that run up the coast so we are seeing the NorEaster's impacts much farther to the north bypassing our region. This would probably suggest that the Cansips favors an eastern based -NAO.

Latest Cansips is now out. One thing it is reflecting is something I have been watching for a few weeks now in regards to the possible AO state we can expect this winter. As some have noticed we have seen the arctic regions scorching with high temp anomalies. As far as the Cansips is concerned this looks to continue through October as can be seen below. Not only do we see high temp anomalies in October the Cansips suggest we see it through the entire winter. Below we have the averages Nov-Jan and February is scorching as well. Now if true, these warm temps would strongly suggest we could expect a weak, and perturbed PV throughout the winter. In other words a -AO, And looking over the 500's below would suggest that. Though Nov isn't quite as obvious Dec-Feb standout as they all show a weakened and elongated pv. Now just going by the Cansips and what it is showing and to nit pick a little. I would prefer to see the warm anomalies centered on our side of our globe off of Canada and Greenland as opposed to off of Russia. Where they are situated now implies that the elongated pv will be situated more towards the other side of the globe and this is exactly what we see as part of the pv plants over eastern Russia while the other lobe is far to our north over the extreme northern Canada and Greenland. This setup suggests that the cold would be situated farther to our north and not readily available. Now one mechanism to drive the cold farther south in this case would be help from the NAO. Unfortunately Nov and Dec don't look promising on the Cansips in that regards. January though shows a little promise and Feb is the best by far. All and all, looking at the Cansips would suggest it is looking for a mostly back loaded winter with February having the most potential.

Back in business? Hope so. Winter won't be the same without all the drama your reaping causes.

There goes an extra 1-2 hours lost a day for tracking during the winter. Wife won't be happy about that.

If I wanted all the fun sucked out of my life I would have gotten married. Oh wait... I am married.

@psuhoffman How are we looking as far as the BBQ? Anything firming up yet where I can start trying to rearrange my weekends to make it?

Lived and died over the Orioles back then so that series was a heat-breaker for me. Hated that song 'We are Family' ever since. My memory of a 3 to 4 inch snow was pretty spot on then with what looks to be 3.5 up in the OM and Reisterstown region on that map. Guess I am not as senile as I thought.

My brother was going there. 3'rd grade then maybe?

Guess his answer was a NO. I think most of us could get on board with 'Compassionate de-posting' and I know we could fully embrace having a little less of you.

Remember that 79 snow well. Going to Owings Mills High at the time and believe we saw 3 to 4 inches. Had me psyched for a great winter. Needless to say the winter was a complete dud.

And yet it will still snow. Go figure. Do you think this year you can take the Global Warming crap to where it belongs https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/ and quit mucking up our threads? Please? Pretty please? Pretty please with a cherry on top?

You need to get an all weather lawnmower. A goat.

If the somewhat hot mess we saw occasionally in the discussion threads leading into Flo didn't remind you of Wintertime then the site going down at Showtime (Flo's landfall) should have.