showmethesnow

Heading out for the week to hit up family and a couple of Casinos so I won't be following as much as i normally would. But when we get back Sunday I have a very strong suspicion that what we currently see projected for the 10-15/16 day period will bear little resemblance to what we actually see next Sunday. Especially in regards to the PAC. Currently we are seeing a flat PAC flow into the West and I just don't buy it. Think we are going to see amplification with the long wave pattern through that region and it will just be a matter of where the troughing and ridging sets up and that will be determined by what pv presence we see around Alaska and its placement. By Sunday I strongly believe we will be looking at either a very sweet look for the PAC if we see the pv feature in that region rotate out around the Aleutians. Or conversely we could be looking at an absolute dumpster fire if that feature sets up shop on top of Alaska and we see a subsequent western trough extend down into the perpetual weakness we have seen in the SW these last few years. I see arguments for either case so which plays out is a coin flip in my mind. As far as the NAO? Who the hell knows. That will pretty much depend on where we see the major pv set up shop when it shifts eastward. Right now both models place it in one of the worst spots possible. They could be right but then again they are just as likely to be wrong and it wouldn't take much of shift to drastically improve the look.. So I guess what I am saying is, take what we are currently seeing on the models with a grain of salt because more then likely this is not what we see in a weeks time and the differences between a sweet look and a crap look are just a matter of some minor adjustments/placements of a couple of features.

Never said it would. Just trying to find something positive to say about some crappy overnight runs.

Just glanced at the latest EPS. Pretty rough looking in the higher latitudes but we did see some slight improvements here and there from the 12z. That said the look in the extended is workable given the time of the year but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for snow.

Waiting on the EPS to finish running to see what it has to say, but yeah the GEFS was pretty rough looking. Starting to hit hard on having a pv influence in/around Alaska and the latest run is following the EPS idea from yesterdays 00z run of planting that squarely into Alaska where we do not want to see it. Good thing here is that it doesn't take much of a shift with that feature (westward) to get a good look. As far as the NAO it won't win many friends. PV planted squarely in the western NAO domain and its influence spreading across Greenland down into N Europe. The run was pretty much the 2 worst case scenarios from my post yesterday. Won't say recent trends aren't somewhat concerning but I will reserve judgement for a few more days. Wouldn't take much to turn this look into a pretty good look and it probably all keys on how it handles the main piece of pv as it rotates eastward towards Greenland. See a farther southward drop and I think we see a good response in both the PAC and the NAO domains. As it is the current look being thrown up isn't what i would call a high probability look for our snow chances, far from it actually, but it is one that can be workable considering the time of the year.

Where the pv is currently depicted in the extended on both models it will be hard to maintain any sort of -epo/-nao regime for long, if at all. How it is evolving on the models at this time our hope is probably that both models are under playing the southward drop of that feature. See the models start placing that closer to Hudson Bay and I think chances are pretty good we see the upper latitude blocking showing up in both domains with even an outside shot of seeing a possible attempt at bridging between them.

The possible favorable changes to the pattern concerning the PAC are initiated Day 8-10 (Roughly day 8 GEFS, Day 10 EPS) as we start to see the PV make its move eastward towards Greenland. The models have shown for awhile that the pv's influence in the N PAC around Alaska would be substantially reduced as we would see everything mostly shifted eastward. But what I have suspected for while now (because of the ambiguous looks the models have been throwing out in this region) is that we would still see a fairly significant pv presence in this area even after we saw the shift of the main PV eastward. That said I believe the models may now be starting to pick up on this. If we look at the EPS below note that we are now starting to see strong negative anomalies and weak troughing extending westward through Alaska. This implies to me that the EPS is now possibly moving towards at lest pv associated troughing through that region, if not a piece of pv actually residing in that region. Now the current look is still workable despite the flat flow we are seeing coming off the PAC given the time of year. The problem here is that is probably not the look we get if we do in fact see troughing/piece of pv located close to or through Alaska. Chances are good that we would actually see is a repeat of the troughing extending down the west coast as we are now currently seeing and will see over the coming days. Needless to say this is the last thing we want to see for our snow chances Now the GEFS is also picking up on the idea of a stronger pv presence/influence around Alaska as well. But note we are seeing a difference where the stronger anomalies and troughing are compared to the EPS. These features are running north of Alaska and hooking down into the Aleutians. This is a much more favorable location for this feature and one I want to see. As a result of this we are now seeing the ability for height builds/ridging to extend up the west coast into Alaska. This would go a long way in improving our snow chances. Pretty amazing when you think about it, what just the small shifting of one feature could mean in regards to our snow chances. Now the PAC is just one part of the equation when it comes to our snow chances. Let's see what is occurring in the N Atlantic as the pv shifts. Interestingly enough, the EPS has a better solution then the GEFS. Note that the stronger neg height anomalies/troughing are situated mostly north of Greenland. This positioning is allowing the ability for stronger height builds northward into Greenland. Considering that we typically see smoothing at this range on the ensembles we would probably see a greater amplification of the troughing and ridging as it neared in time considering what is being presented at this time. Which would be a good look for us as it would place blocking in the central and western portions of the NAO domain. But if we look at the GEFS the neg anomalies and troughing run directly through Greenland (strong +NAO). This is effectively squashing the flow and not allowing the greater heights to build northward as we see on the EPS. And given the look I don't think we could count on seeing an improvement with the heights/ridging even if we consider smoothing. Again we are seeing just a minor shift of a feature that can have a fairly significant impact. Now if we could see a combination of what the GEFS is suggesting in the PAC as well what the EPS is suggesting in the N Atlantic I believe we would end up with a very good look through the CONUS as far as our snow chances. But we are still 8-10 days away from when all this get jump started by the pv's eastward migration so much can/will still change.

Winter of 19-20 Running snow totals. ******************************************** Dec 4 (Early morning hours) .5"" Dec 11 (Early morning post frontal snows) .6 " Dec 16 (early morning hours, overrunning) 1.0" Dec 18 (late evening snow squall) .1" ******************************************** Total for season: 2.2"

Winter of 19-20 Running snow totals. ******************************************** Dec 4 (Early morning hours): 1/2" Dec 11 (Early morning post frontal snows) .6 " DEC 16 (early morning hours, overrunning) 1.0" ******************************************** Total for season: 2.1"

Winter of 19-20 Running snow totals. ******************************************** Dec 4 (Early morning hours): 1/2" Dec 11 (Early morning post frontal snows) .6 " ******************************************** Total for season: 1.1"

Winter of 19-20 Running snow totals. ******************************************** Dec 4 (Early morning hours): 1/2" ******************************************** Total for season: 1/2"

BWI: 26" DCA: 20" IAD: 31" RIC: 15" Tiebreaker ( LYH): 20"

It is always tough to predict snowfall totals for the year when one or two KU's can really rigged the numbers. But at this point from what I have been seeing I have feeling that at worst we will see in the ball park of an average year. The question at this point is if we can exceed that and the following week, 10 days will go a long way in my mind in shedding light. Will be interesting to see how the PNA/EPO and the NAO play together, if they in fact exist, as well as the response we see within the SW troughing/weakness through this period. Think that general pattern may be a common one at the very least through the first half of winter and it is one that we can do well in.

@PrinceFrederickWx So coach, what's the word? Showme: I tell you Price, we have the potential. Lots of potential in fact. Whether it is realized or not is another story. Prince: But we heard this last year. All the hype surrounding your team and yet you were a mediocre team at best. In fact weren't you in negotiations with Geritol for the elderly in anticipation of a Super Bowl victory? And yet as I look over the team I find many of the same players and coaches in place as we had last year. So what has changed? Showme: True, true. We greatly under performed as far as I am concerned. (mumble, mumble) Can't believe I lost that Geritol promo. If I could have scored that money I could have gotten out of this damn profession. Ahem..... Where was I? Ah yes, Prince we did under perform. And yes we have many of the same players. BUT... we have made some key changes here and there that hopefully will have a significant impact. For one, I fired the whole freaking NAO coaching staff. Found out they were calling in their schemes from the different stadium bars during the games. Needless to say, that doesn't fly with me. (mumble, mumble) Especially if they can't be bothered to invite me and God knows I could have used a drink or two last year. Ah, and second we have beefed up on the PNA and EPO lines. Got tired of watching the SW weakness bully them around. So we have had them on a new training program during the off season. (mumble, mumble) Probably shouldn't tell him the training involved eating massive quantity of donuts. Nobody's going to be able to move those lard asses once they get planted. Ahem... Have a feeling that will pay big dividends this year as well. Prince: What about the AO? That crew seemed to be hit or miss the whole season. Any changes there? Showme: Yeah, they were somewhat of a disappointment. The talent is there and yet they greatly under performed. But this preseason we have been hitting them hard time and again. Applying non stop pressure to hopefully get them to hit their peak performance levels. And early indications are that it is working. (mumble, mumble) Doesn't hurt that most of them are in their final year of their contracts hunting for a big payday. Maybe that will get them off their lazy asses and actual show up. Prince: Things sound somewhat promising coach. But I just can't shake what we saw happen last year. You were promising us feasts and yet we ended up rooting through dumpsters for scraps off the table. Anyway, any predictions on the coming season? Showme: Well Prince, there is enough talent on the board at this point to go all the way. It is all a question of whether they can play as a team throughout the season. Having one group show up each game while the others are MIA will not work. That is a recipe for another mediocre season as talent alone can only take us so far. The next week will be very telling as far as that is concerned. We will be finally putting all the pieces together during this time and getting a feeling of how well they play together. So Prince, get back to me then and I will boldly lay it on the line. (mumble, mumble) Going to pound the next guy that brings up last year. Wonder if it is too late to consider a career change?

BWI: 11/16 DCA: 11/26 IAD: 11/16 RIC: 11/26 Tiebreaker: 8”

I hear rock/gravel lawns are easy to maintain.

Just starting to see pumpkins now? Did you plant late or is this where your handy tip comes into play?

They just don't make sun flowers like they used too. Back in my day sun flower plants were 5+ feet tall with heads a foot across.

The problem with not tilling is that the soil gets compacted over time which hinders good root development on your plants. It also will hinder rainfall penetration into the soil where more of it will run off then in a looser soil. Also the more compacted soil will tend not to retain as much moisture. During the hotter portions of the summer you really want that extra moisture. One option if you don't want to till is to dig a hole and turnover the soil where your plants will actually be. This is what i normally do because unfortunately tilling is not an option at this time due to space constraints. Normally will mix fertilizer and prime top soil in at the same time as well. Typically you want the hole almost as wide as the plant will be above the surface as quite often the root system will match its expanse.

Couple things you can do here to help keep weeds down. First off, you really need to keep on top of the weeds throughout the summer. Never let them grow long enough where they flower otherwise they are just going to drop seeds for the coming year. You also want to throw the weeds in the trash and not just throw the pulled weeds back onto the ground in the garden. Just doing this and nothing else and you should see a noticeable reduction year over year. Second, at the end of the summer clear the garden but don't roto-tiller yet. Put down black tarp or plastic for several weeks as to where hopefully the sun will create enough heat on the surface of the soil to kill any seeds that have been deposited over the summer. If you roto-tiller before hand all you do is push these seeds deeper into the soil where not enough heat can be generated. Now if you are dealing with an invasive weed that spreads (Such as I have been dealing with a Morning Glory ivy ever since we bought the house) you need to actually spray that with a weed killer instead of pulling it. Spraying it will help kill the root system from which more plants will spring up even after you pull the original weed. I have used this method the last 3 years and it has just about been eradicated after years of it taking over a decent portion of the garden. One benefit to rotoing in the leafs in the fall is that they will compost quicker in the soil then on the surface. They will also tend to help keep the soil from packing as much over the winter as the leaves will create air pockets as they decompose.

Beaver dam,that brings back memories. Used to go swimming there as a teenager.

That sucks. Wondering myself what I will have when I get back from vacation next sun/mon. Hopefully it's just a bunch of weeds. That's the only drawback to a summer vacation, wondering if your garden survived without your pampering.

Had the same problem. But not only did I see growth under the feeder we were also seeing plants shooting up 10-15 feet away as the squirrels were stealing the seeds and taking them elsewhere to eat. The other problem with the feeder was the fact that my dogs considered their own personal buffet with the animals it attracted. Finally took it down after a year's trial.

Having our first tomato tonight for dinner with BLT's.

We have a senior community a couple of blocks away so often times I will drop some produce off there. Might look into the local food bank this year as well. Of course neighbors and co-workers get their share as well. Splitting at the forks? First I have ever heard of that. If the tomatoes are struggling you might want to try some calcium nitrate on them. Of course you probably already know that.

Best time of the year when the garden first starts producing. After a month or so though it becomes, 'Who can I foist this stuff off to so it doesn't go to waste'' as you get burned out eating veggies every day. Probably have some cucumbers (3 plants) to harvest in the next 7-10 days. Pepper plants (1 red, 1 green) are looking healthy. My tomato plants (3 plants, 1 grape tomato) are going gang busters and they are the best they have looked in years. Probably have some tomatoes to pick in about 2-3 weeks. Yellow squash look sickly and yellowish. First I had thought it was because it was to wet but the last week or two it has dried up a good deal so I am probably looking at a fungus in the soil. Overall I am happy with the garden, it looks the best it has in the last 3 years.