showmethesnow

Liked what I saw at the end of the run for the latest weeklies. As I have mentioned a couple of times before, though the projected pattern through the early winter isn't hateful by any means it does have one draw back. The models have been saying for awhile now that the PV would basically be located around the pole or even on the other side of the globe. Now at any time of the winter you prefer to see the PV southward on our side of the globe because it allows easier access to the cold. But this is especially true early in winter when you need some extreme negative departures to overcome climo. Now an -NAO can help drive those colder temps south and to lock them in somewhat but so far the NAO hasn't been a major player. Otherwise we are looking at cold shots that are brief in nature without much oomph to them. So though you can't rule something out it will just take some effort/luck to score. The reasoning above is the major factor why I have been leaning more and more on a slow start to winter. But... I have also felt strongly we would see a great back end to winter and an extended winter at that. The question was when we would see the flip and my thinking has been mid to late December. And the latest run of the weeklies seems to now be seeing that. Below we have the end of the weeklies run (Day 39-46). There is a lot to like with this. Let's look first at the location of the PV which is the major hangup earlier in the winter. What we are seeing is the ridging building on the west coast (+PNA) which is extending up towards the pole. This is raising heights over the pole starting to force part of the PV S/SEward into eastern Canada. Now in conjunction with we are seeing ridging building into Greenland (-NAO). Besides the obvious benefit for east coast storms we all know about, it also has another benefit in this case. What it is doing is to help channel the PV more southward then eastward. Without it the +PNA would tend to shove the PV into Greenland where we do not want to see it. Needless to say this is what we want to see in regards to the PV. Now let's look at the general overall pattern which is moving into a great look. First off, we are seeing are low height anomalies to the southeast of Greenland. These anomalies are normally indicative of surface low pressure and that is exactly what we see. So what makes this important is that as we see the upper latitudes morph we are also seeing these neg departures moving steadily south and eastward towards the 50/50 region. So could we possibly be looking at a 50/50 low shortly which is another key ingredient in east coast storms? Now in the Pacific we are also seeing negative departures off the Aleutians and once again surface low pressure with it. Needless to say.Aleutian lows are one of the important ingredients we look for from the Pacific when it comes to east coast storms (-EPO). Looking in the CONUS looks promising as well. What we are seeing is a positive tilted trough west of the Mississippi as well as confluence running through our region. In this setup systems would have a hard time amplifying prematurely and running to our west. All in all, we have pieces already in place and others moving into position that would be a great look for our region. Now besides the obvious question of whether this verifies or not the next question would be will this be the general pattern we see through the winter? I happen to think it will be the rule and not the exception. Besides the usual fluctuations you see through out the winter I think a semblance of this pattern will end up being the default pattern we bounce back into after any relax. Now if we can get a little ENSO loving to help bump up the tropical jet...

As I see this in-depth discussion on where you can score the most snow I can't help but wonder if it would just be easier to buy a couple/few snow machines and make your own. Saves you the hassle of packing everything up and moving. As well as the angst when you realized....

Best shot at anyone besides the mountains/extreme western burbs seeing frozen is probably with the follow up impulse that runs through from the west as the initial low runs up the coast.

You could always check up around Mt PSUhoffman. I hear they get fringed a lot but they still make out with the best numbers in central MD.

As I said before there is a lot of question marks in my mind at this time but I think if I had to make a call for the first half of winter I would probably go for a mostly uneventful one winter weather wise. Leaning towards a highly variable November and early/mid December temps wise with temps above norm over that period. Think the torches will out number the cold outbreaks and the cold out breaks will be more in and out in nature. Doesn't mean we can't score something though, especially if we can get a little help from the NAO. Think by mid/late December is when we see a pattern flip and things start to become exciting.

From what I have seen so far I am favoring a good back end to winter (Jan/Feb/Mar). Think we see it run deep into March where the northern/favored areas might sneak into April. Plenty of question marks in my mind though on the front end.

A fluctuating NAO is normally indicative of storminess on the east coast. Many of our Kocin events occur when we see the NAO flip from a neg to pos. Where as a strong static -NAO generally favors a cold and suppressed look for our region where storms will run through the south with no amplification.

Was just looking at that when you posted. Pretty significant drop in the last week or so. Still a fairly strong Modoki signature though it just falls under nino criteria. I've wondered over the last few years if whether the Modoki configuration (warmer sst's in 3.4 vs colder 1+2) was actually beneficial to our East Coast winter weather chances despite the ENSO state we may be in. Might have to go back at some point to see how our neutrals and Ninas preformed when the SSTs were aligned in this manner.

And then you have the Control run. Last 2 weeks is downright ugly. So we go with SOP and we toss.

$1K of liquor and only 50 people to drink it? Yeah, I bet it was awesome.

That winter is the one people will be bringing up for the next 50 years hoping that the current winter they are in will match it. Wonder how many people realized at the time they were probably looking at a once in a lifetime event with KU's, total snowfall for this region and general over all awesomeness that the winter was?

Almost picked up bottle of Founders Breakfast Stout to try. Think they also had a coffee stout as well. Already had other beers to try so I decided to hold off until next go round. Distributor up here in Hanover has an unbelievable selection to choose from. First time I ever walked into there was a month ago. It is like walking into Beer heaven.

Why should I suffer? Taking $5 off of everyone's Christmas presents this year should cover the Wxbell expenses.

Haven't had much luck yet on picking it up. Keep checking in at different distributors but it is a seasonal beer (winter) so no one has gotten it in yet. Did pick up a couple of different coffee stouts for my 2 camping trips and neither impressed. I will say that Sam Adams stout was actually pretty good out of the 7-8 different stouts I took with me to try.

And winter has now officially begun for me. WxBell will now be $25 richer each month, hopefully through March.

Yeah, I saw his post but ignored it for the most part because it wasn't really worth worrying about. Just about everything I am seeing at this time points to a predominately weakened and disturbed pv this winter (implies better chances for a -AO). And the further in time we go the more confident I am that we see this in fact occur. The bigger question for me at this time is how the pv orients because all pv's are not created equal for our snow chances. In that regards I am somewhat optimistic as well and that optimism is growing. Seeing the models move towards an extension of the pv and associated troughing towards Japan and eastern Russia is encouraging as that also implies we will see an extension of the pv and troughing towards the eastern US. And that is in fact what we are now seeing. With this alignment we will get our chances and probably some good chances with the general setup we are seeing in the mid latitudes. At the times the pv is displaced more towards the other side of the globe we will have to rely on a -NAO to bring in the cold and hold it in otherwise we will see glancing blows as it runs quickly in and out. One possible positive about this though is that it may allow for an easier bump up of the southern jet at these times. On the other hand when the pv and associated trough is displaced on our side of the globe we then don't have to depend on a -NAO to lock in the cold and should have quite a bit of leeway to score. All in all, I like where we stand at this point.

Not sure why anyone would be panicking at this point. Things look good at this time leading in. Sure as hell beats last year. Don't know how many times I put an optimistic spin on something that I thought was for the most part crap just to keep the masses appeased. Really haven't looked into things this year like I normally do (just haven't had the time) but I do like what I have seen so far. For what it is worth I am leaning to a first half of winter that won't be too noteworthy but will offer up some chances none the less. 2'nd half is where I think we shine.

But I think that is part of what makes the early winter discussion threads enjoyable especially during preseason when there really is very little to discuss besides ENSO or analogs.

If you both are referring to my posts it isn't a prediction on my part on what will occur. It is just what I expected to see the models start moving to with where they continue to see the warmest anomalies in the arctic. Even if we were to see the pv more so towards the other side of the globe in the early part of winter that doesn't mean we are SOL, it just means we are probably going to be more dependent on a -NAO to help deliver the cold as the general overall setup is very good.

Never do well eyeballing for AO but that looks to me to be a neutral at worst. I think the washing out in the longer ranges is dampening what would probably be a negative AO. Wxbell doesn't have the numerical AO values by any chance? I see my guess that the pv is skewed to the other side of the globe is accurate. That semi split of the pv is located where the greatest warm anomalies have been/will be centered and the reason why I believe we see the pv featured or skewed on this run more to the other side of the globe. eta: By the way, Thanks.

Kind of surprising to see negative mslp anoms when I see warm 850's in that region. Maybe some extreme members in the ensembles throwing a curve? Or possible a couple of camps fighting it out? No worries about posting it. Not that I have the time but I am starting to get antsy for winter so I think I will just go ahead and grab Wxbell this evening. eta: Lol. See you posted a map seconds before my post.

Is it actually showing a weak +AO at the end? Kind of curious on the look. Do you have something to throw up? if not I guess I will have to dig into my wallet for weatherbell though it is a little earlier in the season then normal.

I don't get too locked in on what they show in the longer ranges unless we are in a fairly stable regime and right now we are undergoing changes so I am also not surprised that we are seeing this on the models. One of my thoughts/concerns over the last few weeks was where the warmest anomalies were setting up in the polar regions leading into winter. Though they argued for a weakened and displaced PV I thought they also argued for seeing the PV displaced more so on the other side of the globe then our side at least for the beginning and/or first half of winter. And I think this is exactly what the weeklies are now beginning to show in the longer ranges.

What I can't believe is that you didn't post it. Come on, pony up and give us our snow fix.

Really hard to go by just a snapshot at 1 layer of the atmosphere and just on our side of the globe to boot but I think the warm anomalies around the pole probably argue against a +AO. A strong PV sitting in the polar regions (+AO) would typically have cold anomalies showing. My guess is what we are seeing is the bulk of the PV has rotated to the other side of the globe at this point. And the fact we are see the warm anomalies extending from the polar regions down into the northern US only reinforces that thought in my mind. Would really like to see more maps to get a better understanding of what is going on. Guess it is about time I consider re-upping my WxBell.