gopper

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gefs is going bonkers with the Greenland block. 
this...

leads to this look as it starts to relax which leads to that spike in snowfall...

if the gefs is right about that the period as the blocking relaxes is commonly when we do score so the progression fits.

But this is practically the end of January!  I sure hope the pattern does not break down fast!

1 hour ago, TSG said:

Can we seriously stop with the "doom-posting"? I've been on here for 10 years now at varying capacities and it's the worst it's ever been. It's becoming unbearable. I'm not going to point fingers, but there's a solid crew accumulating here that really don't contribute anything to the conversation at all. Worse, y'all seem to just spew the first thought that comes into your head. A thought that has likely been stated multiple times the same week/day/hour. It feels like I read the exact same post from the exact same set of "doomers" every day on a different page. It's like a 10:1 ratio of garbage to actual discussion sometimes and is likely a large part of the reason some of our most experienced forum members have been leaving the past few years.

Give it a rest. If you don't have anything to say other than "oh no, what will we do if we don't score this month?!?", then please just keep it to yourself. 

I'm not even pointing at posters like Ji... he contributes, even if it comes with a bunch of attitude.

"READ MORE!  POST LESS!!"   A good adage to abide by here

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

http://wow.americanwx.com/gg/
 

all of Gary Grey’s discussions the week of Jan 7 1996

Thanks for these!  I remember reading them at the time.  Great storm!

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hrrr longgg range 

 

It's coming North! 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

SO. MANY. SHORTWAVES.

Going to be a volatile forecast post-Xmas I expect.

"volatile", "complicated"   Aren't those adjectives that tend to not work out so well for Mid-atlantic area?  Or is it more of the situation where if we keep getting lots of chances, one of them is bound to work out?

4 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

Can confirm sleet snow mix in Towson

Yes, mostly sleet now with I think some rain mixed in too.  Roads are a mess!

Steady moderate snow in Towson.  Flake size not too big.  Looks like it wants to continue for a while.

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The NAM 3k was awful, awful (6z run)

I don't mind what I see on latest NAMs for Towson area....but of course I am looking at those silly snow maps.

4 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Long time lurker and dont post much... i apologize in advance for the dumb question.  What is 00z, 19 z, etc.  So a map that shows "valid at 19z" means... 7pm like military time?

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/prod_overview/local_gmt_conversion.shtml

I always need to look at this to figure out what time the maps are referring to.

decent sized flakes in Towson.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but experience tells me that sometimes right where the transition line of snow/no snow is there is a relative burst of energy that creates higher snowfall amounts on the winning side of that battle.  Could this be the case in today's scenario?  Or will it be simply snow to ice for those in the battle zone?

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

FWIW, 12z HREF on SPC's site did not have any precip north of I-66 prior to 17z / 18z and we're seeing precip already up into Mason-Dixon. 

I appreciate your observations and insight during this event!  You have been very positive/optimistic, yet reasonable and realistic about expectations.  Keep it coming:)

Genuine light snow now in Towson with instant stickage on all surfaces!

4 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Everyone including the DC crew should like the new 15z HRRR cold trending continues 

With a little backside love for Baltimore area!

First tiny snowflakes spotted just south of Towson!  Woo-Hoo!!  It's a win!!

I'm riding the WRF all the way to the bank on this one!  I think it is onto something

BWI: 15.5

DCA: 6.6

IAD:  17.7

RIC: 4.4

SBY: 3.3

BWI: 11/4

IAD: 10/25

DCA: 11/12

RIC: 11/10

TB: 87

A quick look at radar around 6:00 last night seemed to suggest that one cell would miss Towson to the northwest and another would miss Towson to the southeast.  Then, around 6:30 it started to pour buckets.  Seems as if the two cells merged over the area then trained for some time.  Have no idea how much rain, but my little back yard pond hole that I have been digging seemed 1/4 full of water (muddy mess today).  We even had another round of storms sometime after midnight.

Beautiful morning now with much lower humidity!!

5 hours ago, HighStakes said:

93-94 was so close to having big totals. It's one thing to have so many mixed events with marginal cold or weak antecedent air masses but to have them in frigid conditions because the depth of the cold was so shallow has got to be a 1 in 200 year type winter. 

It was my first year teaching in Baltimore County Schools.  We missed so many days due to ice that that tacked on 30 minutes to each day for the last month of school.  Also had to teach on Memorial Day.  But the amount of ice was incredible!  Loved it!!

BWI:  11/24

DCA: 12/6

IAD: 10/27

RIC:  12/6

Tie:  13.25"

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

Another 0.7 or so QPF at DCA

BWI?

2 minutes ago, Beachin said:

Can you give me the link to this radar?