gopper

Last few frames of the radar look promising for places to the east the mountains

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

How much did you end up with?

Roughly a half inch.  Too much melting!  Looks nice though!

Just now, J.Mike said:

I got about an inch. It was quite beautiful as it fell. Very peaceful.

IMHO, I'm ok with these small events. Reminds me of a conversation I had with a rabid Nats fan. He was complaining that the Nats are clueless about playing 'small ball' to win games. They are always going for the spectacular home runs. The snow weenies here are like that (me included). We want the HECS every time. But what's wrong with a dozen 1-4" snows? I say Bring Them On!

Yea, the more small events, the better opportunity for school closings/delays!  And I am on the teacher side of the school systems.  LOL!  Love my snow days!!

2 inches?  Really?

Is it time for radar hallucinations yet?  Looking at radar about 20 minutes ago, it appeared that our show showers were going to be non-existent, now looks like they may have some life!  Going to be fun watching radar this morning!

back to moderate snow in Towson after a lul.  Looks like this final band has really consolidated...hope it has not lost its punch.  Would like to see an inch out of the final band.

Quote

Popping in to say congrats and good luck. Any wind out there as the changeover happens?

 

Have not really noticed any wind at all.  I am sure aloft there is a lot of movement, but at the surface it is pretty calm at the moment.  Guessing the wind comes in tomorrow with the secondary front.

nice steady moderate snow in Towson.  Starting to stick to road surfaces.  BCPS let schools out 3 hours early...now, can we get them to close tomorrow?  Probably not, but a 2 hour delay would be nice.

very light snow in Towson

cae,  excellent post analysis.  You obviously put a good deal of time into collecting all of the map comparisons!  Always interesting to see which models are picking up on certain aspects of a storm.  Thank You!

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

Another 0.7 or so QPF at DCA

BWI?

2 minutes ago, Beachin said:

Can you give me the link to this radar?

On 11/26/2018 at 2:24 PM, WEATHER53 said:

I think low pressure patterns are showing their hand. Mostly  lake cutters, a few phase jobs that never work anyway, infrequent well placed coastal. This is why I do not see the big snow season for DC area. 

So far, this prediction has been spot on!  Lots of west tracks and lake cutters.  Still hoping that we can turn things around for the last part of winter!

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

1-2" of ice is not epic... a FOOT of ice is epic. Maybe we can get a cat 5 up the Potomac AND a foot of ice in the same year. I'd retire from tracking weather if that happened.

Would hate it if that ever happened.....You retiring from tracking weather, that is.

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Now one final one. The ejection of the SW energy/trough itself. Many of our biggest storms occur when this occurs especially when we see a phasing. I will just leave it at that.

 

 

One final comment. Both the NS and the SS have been very active so far this winter. I will leave you to do the math on that when it comes to my comments above.

showmethesnow, Thank you for your always insightful posts!  You have a natural way of explaining things in terms that the novice can understand and you show picures with your explanation that makes it even more helpful!  You also intertwine positivity with reality very well!  Keep up the great work!!

Can you explain why the operational GFS is not currently picking up on any snowy scenarios out towards Christmas?  Is this just the case of one operational run won't show the big picture and we need to focus on the ensembles at this point?

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Soft hail are basically snow pellets. It's super-cooled water droplets that coalesce and cover a snowflake. The ones from this event accompanied the insanely large flakes that dumped over the region. Graupel is soft hail. It's pretty cool when you look at it closely. It's basically a rimed over snowflake. 

Thank you for the explanation.  How large can Soft Hail get?  I know the little styrofoam-like graupel pellets, but can soft hail get large like regular hail?  

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Gotcha. Yes, that corridor along I-95 north of Samford got absolutely blitzed. 40" of snow and 6"/hr rates were reported. I did a case study on that in college for my radar class. It was fascinating. There were reports of soft hail in that band that set up. Some of the greatest frontogenesis you will ever see in a storm bar none. 

What is soft hail?

Okay, here is my "real" guess.  Thinking we will see several events like today....mixy with more north and west.  Also low balling SBY because they got their fill of snow last year.  Would love to go super big with all of the good signs this year so far, but am fearful of the fact that even when the stars align, it can be hard to get snow around here.  Hope reality is much higher than my predictions.

BWI:  28.8"

DCA:  17.7"

IAD:  33.3"

RIC:  15.5"

SBY: 9.9"

waiting for the right moment  Still reading the tea leaves.

BWI:  100"

DCA:  0"

IAD:  120"

RIC:  0"

SBY: 0"

BWI:  0.0"

DCA:  0.0"

IAD: 0.0"

RIC:  0.0"

Tiebreaker:  SBY: 0.0"

DCA: 12/5

BWI:  11/22

IAD: 11/12

RIC: 11/27

TB: 4.00