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gopper

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    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Chris78 said:

    Miss one south , then north. Next Fridays clipper has evaporated.  Fun times

    This is how we roll around these parts.  Frustrating, for sure, but it is just the way it tends to be.  I suspect that in the middle of the frustration, another, little, surprise event will start to materialize.  If not, we go back to chasing pink unicorns in the future.   C'est la vie.

    • Like 1
    • Weenie 1

    Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore, and Harford Counties Area Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Even though the accumulation in Towson were on the low side, I thoroughly enjoyed this wonderful winter day.  Went for a snow drive down towards DC in the AM and got to see the heavier dendrites.  Had lunch, then wife and I went for a Hike at Lake Roland.  It was crisp with snow flurries sprinkled in.  Felt so good.  Then, after dinner, got to take a little run with snow still falling and actually heavier than most of the day. Was not expecting that!  It looks beautiful outside with the lights and the sugar coating of snow on everything.  What a great day!

    • Like 2

    December Banter 2025

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    models, model, models!  so many models!

    eons ago there were two models that were the go to models.  I think it was the AVN and the Eta model.  I remember folks talking about the E/A rule (i believe it was called).  If these two models agreed on snow, then it was a sure bet.

    Later the models changed and increased in number, but when the Euro came to America, it rapidly took over the kingship of models to trust most.

    Now with so many models printing out such a variety of possibilities when it comes to snow in a given area,  I've had to put all my chips into the Ji rule: whichever model shows the least amount of snow is the one that verifies. I find if I put my faith in the snowless model, it usually verifies, and if not, I get the excitement of a surprise snow!  According to the Ji rule, I should expect no snow for the next two storms, despite the fact that some of the majors are showing some snow for my area just north of Baltimore.  Going with the least snow solution is depressing, but there is the thrill of a surprise, if indeed, the least snowy model is wrong and we get a decent snow.  Hate to say it, but Ji is becoming my HM!  He will never, ever take the place of usetobe, however.  usetobe is always the EF Hutton of this board.  When he says its gonna snow, it snows!

    All that said, my faith in the flakes/forecasts really rests in the many mets. who post on this board.  Their insight, thoughts and ways of understanding the synoptics and interpret the models is really of extreme value.  What a blessing it is to be able to learn from so many trained mets., forecasters, and expert teachers!  And if I am too old to learn it, I just appreciate the knowledge shared by our experts!!  Keep on doing what you do so well!!!  There will always be onlookers (like me) who will gain from your insight.

    Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 50 years

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    On 11/26/2025 at 7:40 PM, winter_warlock said:

    The best winter storm I ever saw was the blizzard of 79. Presidents Day storm no 1 ..  I was only 12 at the time... At the height of the storm bwi got 17 inches in 5 hours.. snowfall rates of 3.5 inches an hour. I remember waking up about 3 am looking outside and it was snowing so hard the whole street was lit up.  I was 12.  And even after all the storms I've seen since.... I still haven't seen it snow as hard as it did in that storm. I remember my next door neighbor measured 24 inches.  That blizzard  is what got me hooked on the weather and meteorology. Been studying it ever since :)

    Ditto this!  I was 11 but my experience was the same as yours.  I remember waking up around 4ish and was in absolute awe at how hard it was snowing where I lived in Baltimore. I went from window to window not really believing what I was seeing.  It was also special that the rest of the family was still asleep...felt like it was a special gift just for me!  Although I have seen a couple of storms with more overall accumulation, there was no replacing seeing the rates that PD1 gave early that morning!  Instant imprint on my brain that led to this sick obsession that I share with many of you on this board.  I'm glad that I am now old enough that I can enjoy each and every event without all of the ups and downs of model mania.

    • Like 2

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Help me to understand the phrase, "The models always sniff out the big ones early." Does this mean all the models spit out a lot of snow and keep it throughout all their cycles?  Is there not wavering in the models even for the "Big ones"?  If memory serves (which it might not as I have a poor memory) I believe even in the "Big ones" models will shift around a bit with snow amounts and then come into better focus within 2-3 days of the event.

    • Like 1

    February 11-12; 12-13: Are they real??

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Jebman said:

    Old? I remember when I used to call the number 361-7171 or 361-1212 to find out if it was cold enough to snow back in 1976. In Dale City. Used to listen to the Weather Radio hoping for snow.

    Slept with weather radio on always hoping to hear the beeping signals when they announced a storm warning.  I called Balto. weather 936-1212 several times a day

    • Like 4
    • 100% 1

    February 11-12; 12-13: Are they real??

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    Marcus (formerly vortmax) and I cofounded #neweather on mirc back in 1997(?). Ian used to get on once in a while and i think Randy too, but im not sure. We were also, at least i was, very active on the ne.weather usenet bulletin boards. Gary Gray, Joseph Bartlo, myself, and a few others were the originals to that group.  I went by "SteveB" at the time. So yeah, I'm old as dirt and probably have most of ya beat wrt seniority. There is someone name Jerry that I think may post in the New England forum that goes back and also a Logan that might be in the NY forum, but i dont peruse those forums too often. 

    loved Gary Grays write ups!

    Is Marcus still around or is that a story for a different thread?

    February 11-12; 12-13: Are they real??

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 hours ago, RDM said:

    Me too - good old days of dial-up and slowwww downloads.  But because it was slow, people thought more about what they said.  I am really old - almost born in the 50's. 

    Oh, yes. dial up!  Never forget those modems! 

    I appreciate that I am not the only old timer that spends a lot of lurking time here. It is nice to share a strange obsession with others who have the same obsession

    • Like 3

    January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

    Yeah, Commutageddon on Jan. 26, 2011.  Also known as the "PSU Hoffman Storm" (@psuhoffman alluded to this above with his early call about that event...I even remember the thread for that event, it was labeled with his name!).  I got 8" snow in about 5 hours from that, it was amazing...thunder snow even.  It started as literal chunks of ice falling in the late afternoon that quickly turned into large flakes.

    I wouldn't exactly say that LWX "downplayed" the event so much.  There was a sort of predecessor event in the pre-dawn and early morning hours that some areas did well in, prior to a lull, and then the main snow later.  LWX as I recall actually upped the advisories in the area to winter storm warnings by late morning on the 26th, and even highlighted the potential commute issues (since it was to start right around then).  I think most of the problem is that a lot of people figured it won't be too bad by the evening commute, so not many were sent home early.  Or, they were sent home only a little early, but by then it was kind of too late...everyone was out on the roads.  I know of a couple of people who lived a bit north of the DC metro area who were stuck on the roads until like midnight or 2AM! 

    Great storm for sure!  Remember the thread well and how PSU saw it coming many days away.  I became a true PSU believer then!  The Jeb walk with the kids and the thunder and lightning was the best.  Reminded me of the blizzard of 87 with the thunder an lightning.  

    • Like 1
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