gopper

This is how we roll around these parts. Frustrating, for sure, but it is just the way it tends to be. I suspect that in the middle of the frustration, another, little, surprise event will start to materialize. If not, we go back to chasing pink unicorns in the future. C'est la vie.

Even though the accumulation in Towson were on the low side, I thoroughly enjoyed this wonderful winter day. Went for a snow drive down towards DC in the AM and got to see the heavier dendrites. Had lunch, then wife and I went for a Hike at Lake Roland. It was crisp with snow flurries sprinkled in. Felt so good. Then, after dinner, got to take a little run with snow still falling and actually heavier than most of the day. Was not expecting that! It looks beautiful outside with the lights and the sugar coating of snow on everything. What a great day!

see now. Aren't you glad they brined the roads for you

models, model, models! so many models! eons ago there were two models that were the go to models. I think it was the AVN and the Eta model. I remember folks talking about the E/A rule (i believe it was called). If these two models agreed on snow, then it was a sure bet. Later the models changed and increased in number, but when the Euro came to America, it rapidly took over the kingship of models to trust most. Now with so many models printing out such a variety of possibilities when it comes to snow in a given area, I've had to put all my chips into the Ji rule: whichever model shows the least amount of snow is the one that verifies. I find if I put my faith in the snowless model, it usually verifies, and if not, I get the excitement of a surprise snow! According to the Ji rule, I should expect no snow for the next two storms, despite the fact that some of the majors are showing some snow for my area just north of Baltimore. Going with the least snow solution is depressing, but there is the thrill of a surprise, if indeed, the least snowy model is wrong and we get a decent snow. Hate to say it, but Ji is becoming my HM! He will never, ever take the place of usetobe, however. usetobe is always the EF Hutton of this board. When he says its gonna snow, it snows! All that said, my faith in the flakes/forecasts really rests in the many mets. who post on this board. Their insight, thoughts and ways of understanding the synoptics and interpret the models is really of extreme value. What a blessing it is to be able to learn from so many trained mets., forecasters, and expert teachers! And if I am too old to learn it, I just appreciate the knowledge shared by our experts!! Keep on doing what you do so well!!! There will always be onlookers (like me) who will gain from your insight.

snow/sleet/rain mix now in Towson.

Virgaville in Towson

is it time for me to up my snowfall contest prediction by 10 inches?

Ditto this! I was 11 but my experience was the same as yours. I remember waking up around 4ish and was in absolute awe at how hard it was snowing where I lived in Baltimore. I went from window to window not really believing what I was seeing. It was also special that the rest of the family was still asleep...felt like it was a special gift just for me! Although I have seen a couple of storms with more overall accumulation, there was no replacing seeing the rates that PD1 gave early that morning! Instant imprint on my brain that led to this sick obsession that I share with many of you on this board. I'm glad that I am now old enough that I can enjoy each and every event without all of the ups and downs of model mania.

BWI: 22.0 DCA: 15.0 IAD: 25.0 RIC: 12.0 Tie Breaker SBY: 10.0

DCA: 103 IAD: 102 BWI: 102 RIC: 102

Help me to understand the phrase, "The models always sniff out the big ones early." Does this mean all the models spit out a lot of snow and keep it throughout all their cycles? Is there not wavering in the models even for the "Big ones"? If memory serves (which it might not as I have a poor memory) I believe even in the "Big ones" models will shift around a bit with snow amounts and then come into better focus within 2-3 days of the event.

I hate those 2 letters!!

There's a chance!

lwx bullish for Northern MD

Slept with weather radio on always hoping to hear the beeping signals when they announced a storm warning. I called Balto. weather 936-1212 several times a day