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roardog

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    Cass City,Michigan

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  1. roardog
    The media will have you believe that every heatwave is a “heat dome” that will melt your entire body and you’ll end up in the city sewer system. Meanwhile every cold snap is the polar vortex coming south instantly freezing every human or animal outside in place. In reality, sometimes it’s just really cold in winter and really hot in summer.
  2. roardog
    I don’t know about that. The whole sub could be 30 inches above average in snow and 2 degrees above average in temps and we’ll still get CAD posts. lol
  3. roardog
    With the way the CPC “ forecast” works they might as well. The darkest red area of Texas was a 60-70% probability of being above average. That means there was a 30-40% probability of it not being above average. The northeast corner of the state had a 40-50% probability. So there was a higher chance it wouldn’t be above average. lol
  4. roardog
    I think Christmas 1982 has given everyone the misconception that a strong Nino is likely to have these outrageously warm high temperatures in the winter. The majority of the winter warmth usually comes from mild overnight lows due to the lack of arctic airmasses causing a lot of cloudy, mild overnight lows from constant pacific airmasses. You want a "super Nina" if you want those really warm daytime highs.
  5. roardog
    I think I would rather take my chances with a super nino than a pattern like 2001-2002 or 2011-2012. At least the super nino should have a ton of moisture streaming into the country.
  6. roardog
    There’s nothing wrong with what Snowman posts. It’s just he posts tweets saying basically the same thing by different people multiple times a day and week. It’s a little obnoxious IMO.
  7. roardog
    They can’t really ever be wrong with equal chances.
  8. roardog
    I think some people are just skeptical because the PDO is so outrageously negative for what is already a super Nino. I know it's still summer but this persistent very -PDO almost defies those same laws of physics and reality you talk about.
  9. roardog
    I thought I read somewhere once upon a time that a +AMO is more conducive to a -NAO. Although that doesn’t make a lot of sense since the last -AMO had a lot of -NAO periods in it.
  10. roardog
    It looked like you were at least going to get a decent rain over there. I guess that didn’t happen. We ended up with about .60 here last night. I wasn’t sure we were going to get anything so I’m happy with that.
  11. roardog
    I think you're the first poster here to comment on how they like fog. lol. Usually it's associated with boring weather.
  12. roardog
    That's actually frustrating. How hard is it in 2026 to be able to accurately measure what the RONI is? Is it because NOAA has a different way to measure RONI VS ONI or is it the actual water temperatures that are off between the two organizations? 0.5 is a huge difference.
  13. roardog
    Is the data on Cyclonicwx wrong? The ONI for region 4 has been hovering around 1.0 or a little above but here it’s showing RONI at 0.3. That’s a pretty big difference between ONI and RONI. I’m not saying that isn’t accurate because I don’t know. I’m just pointing it out.
  14. roardog
    If region 4 really is done warming then the CFSv2 is way off showing warming continuing there into fall.
  15. roardog
    It looks like it’s staying close to 2012 to date but 2012 wasn’t at record low levels yet on this date in 2012. It fell off a cliff in August.
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