roardog

07-08 is what I picture when I think of a canonical Nina around here.

Isn’t there actually supposed to be something to that? I can’t remember where I’ve seen that before.

Yeah. If your thing is just to have snowstorms then you’re almost better off hoping for above normal temps in the dead of winter.

You’re not excited about the inevitable days of low clouds and fog that ultimately comes with every mild winter day around here?

He seems to me like someone who is just unhappy with life at the moment. I know he mentioned one time that he was working two jobs to make ends meet. He knows most here like cold and snow so he looks for reasons against that to make other people unhappy since he is. Sometimes it’s just the way humans are. If things aren’t going great in his life right now, I hope things get better for him.

I wonder if it actually has to do with December temperature anomalies? If it’s “cold” then NYC obviously has a better chance of snow in December. Then the idea that if December is cold in a Nina, there seems to be a better chance of more cold during the rest of winter comes into play. When a Nina December is “warm” it seems to foreshadow a bleak rest of winter a lot of times.

Well you didn’t really expect December to end up like 15 degrees below normal for an entire month, did you? lol

I’m not sure it can get cold enough to postpone an NFL game.

It just really boils down to you not being happy with the climo of where you live. Most people don’t have ability to just up and move to wherever they want. You can’t expect Chicago to have the climo that you desire. I don’t even think International Falls or the U.P would work for you. Judging by your rants, I think you’re more of an Edmonton guy. I guess if becoming Canadian isn’t your thing then Fairbanks might work.

It seems it would only take a little adjustment in that upcoming pattern for it to actually be interesting around here. A little less western trough and a little less SE ridge would make it interesting here. There will be a lot of cold just north and west of here and probably ample gulf moisture heading up this way too.

18Z Nam with another nudge south.

Most of the models have shifted south. The HRRR seems to be drunk with the 970 something low in the U.P.

Part of the issue is that the water temps have come way down over the last month. As of a couple of days ago Lake Michigan water temps were just a smidge above average and dropping fast. Lake Huron was average but dropping fast and Erie and Ontario were both below average now. I know you only care about Lake Michigan but the way the water temps are dropping, it’s going to take a significantly cold airmass for heavy lake effect snow. Also there was 1.2% ice cover already too.

Lake Superior is only one of the Great Lakes though. Both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are below average right now for this date. Lake Huron is right about average but dropping fast and Lake Michigan is a little above average. This is much different than what it was like in October when all of the Great Lakes were very warm.

I don’t think the lakes are that warm anymore. They were in October when the article in that link was written but the cold blasts in November that caused the heavy lake effect snow and the recent cold is putting a damper on that.