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roardog

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    Cass City,Michigan

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  1. roardog
    How is it looking? You’re pretty good at guessing what the SOI will be in the coming days. Will we break the record?
  2. roardog
    I feel like once you get into super Nino status that stronger might even be better here just because there should have a tremendous amount of moisture streaming into the country. Some of that is bound to try to make its way up this way like it did in 2015-2016. I guess if we have a record setting Nino then it’s something we’ve never experienced so technically there isn’t even an analog.
  3. roardog
    I’d rather have the January 2008 60s with severe weather.
  4. roardog
    You could say that this year is its own oddball so far. A record El Niño for this time of year with a still strongly -PDO with a -PDO type of North American pattern. It just makes me leery that we’re suddenly going to see a flip to 1997 across North America. No doubt much of the rest of the globe is and will continue to look very Ninoish.
  5. roardog
    You would think so but even 2015-2016 seemed to have some outside influence and that was a beast of an El Niño with a strong +PDO. We can’t even sniff a +PDO this year so far and it seems the North American pattern is making sure we know that.
  6. roardog
    That’s the funny thing about 1997-1998. I recall there being more cold early in the winter than later in the winter which is kind of opposite what you think of with El Niño. Of course November was quite cold so there was probably quite a bit of lake effect that month. One memory for me that stands out from that winter was being on the SW edge of the Arctic airmass that eventually went on to produce the catastrophic Canadian ice storm. We started out with freezing rain but changed to rain before it got too bad.
  7. roardog
    Also the strong -PDO which we currently have that probably also ties into the MC influence. Globally there are big differences compared to 1997 at the moment and like you said earlier, it probably is NOT for the better if you’re a winter lover.
  8. roardog
    There are a lot of metrics that are very impressive with this event. It’s also equally impressive how non Nino like the pattern over North America has been along with how strongly negative the PDO continues to be. A lot of interesting stuff happening right now for people like us to watch and discuss.
  9. roardog
    You wanted heat for your garden. Your vegetables will be coming pre-cooked.
  10. roardog
    For as inexpensive as a small window ac unit is, I would have one available to use even if i only needed for a handful of days a year just because I hate sleeping in a hot room. It’s not like I have to use my ac all summer here either but for those really warm nights, I would be miserable the next day if I didn’t have it. It seems like the older i get, the less tolerant I am of hot or cold. lol.
  11. roardog
    Back in the day when the NWS only had the zone forecasts, they would always say “ cooler near Lake Huron” over here in the spring and Summer when needed. However, I don’t ever recall a forecast that said warmer near Lake Huron in the Fall or Winter. There are a lot of times especially in the Fall when there could be gale force winds blowing at the shore with a temperature of 50F while it’s in the 30s with frost and calm winds 20 miles inland. Maybe they just figured the average person didn’t care about that? Just my thought for the day.
  12. roardog
    The warmest 850 temps are actually north of Chicago at the beginning of the week. I think this has potential to see some actual temperatures that are the highest we’ve seen in years for Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The funny part is there probably won’t be the media hype that we saw leading into the 4th of July since the dewpoints will be much lower leading to a lower heat index which leads to probably nothing worse than heat advisories. Of course everyone on this board knows that you need the lower dewpoints if you want higher actual temperatures.
  13. roardog
    I know you like the lake effect rain the 12Z Op GFS has for you today at 240 hours.
  14. roardog
    Maybe the lower dewpoint heat next week will actually bring some high temperatures that don’t underperform for a change.
  15. roardog
    That makes more sense.
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