roardog

Is a +PDO combined those other parameters really that much colder?

Since I’ve never really paid too much attention to forecasts of WWB and Kelvin waves and that sort of thing, my question is, how accurate are those modeled forecasts going out a week plus normally?

He’s saying it caused the MJO to be in phases that you wouldn’t normally expect during a very strong Nino. This is kind of what people on here have been saying just in a different way.

You have to be searching for these types of tweets. There's no way you follow all of these people I've never heard of. lol

I know RONI is the “official” way to measure Enso now but it’s not perfect with the old ONI measurement. If you showed me a 500mb anomaly map of the 23-24 winter over North America, I certainly wouldn’t think moderate/ borderline strong Nino. I would think very strong Nino with a -PDO like 72-73.

That absurd heat in the plains and southwest combined with the well below normal temperatures in Canada is making for some crazy contrasts across the sub. It’s like March weather on steroids. It’s been a struggle to get any of the real warmth up here outside of brief intervals. Today was another one of those days where it stayed in the 30s all day. It might rise some more tonight but by morning we’ll be back to strong north winds and falling temps again.

Temps around normal and torch are two entirely different things unless you consider temps a couple of degrees above normal a torch.

Thanks for providing great information as to why a super Nino isn’t a slam dunk like twitter believes it to be.

I heard Jonger is going to start taking his snowmobile to Myrtle Beach to ride.

It would be a good day for a snowball fight.

How about Montana in the darker shade of blue? lol

I think our palm loving friend is wrong this time.

Hopefully it’s a slow spring melt.

Normal highs in Chicago are approaching 50 now and mid 40s in Milwaukee. You're acting like a 55 degree day in chicago is a big deal. There's still a giant pool of well below normal temperatures in Canada so there's potential for some nasty shallow cold on NE winds even if the upper heights aren't low or the 850 temps aren't that cold. If you were talking about St Louis or Kansas City then that's a different story.

I probably should have been more clear in my post. I was referencing the MJO impacting the developing Nino. The strong phase 7 and 8 in 2023 was looked at as an indication that the Nino could get very strong. This year it's in 7 and 8 again but weaker. I just thought it was interesting.