roardog

It’s not just 2023 though. Didn’t Nino years like 1976(or was it 1977) and 2002 do the same? I know 2002 had April heat and a very cool May. Obviously those years didn’t end up being strong Nino. I think it’s more of just a “Nino thing” regardless of eventual strength.

Oh no. That means if we get central based event this year it will reinforce the warm pool for the next 40 years. Snowman19 will be posting tweets from Andy Hazelton’s grandkids talking about a SE ridge in 2066.

There still seemed to be some Nina like influence that year though. December was mild like you would expect in a Nino but it came with Nina like tendencies which made the east very warm that month. 2014 seems like the last Nino that really had the classic summer to winter progression IMO.

I feel like a cool summer and fall would be an indication that this Nino could be more Nino like. A warm summer and or fall to me indicates there’s still some Nina/-PDO influence.

When you look at those piles in winter it always feels like it’ll take forever for them to melt but they do go fast once you get to this time of year. I bet even the ones in Grayling will be gone next week.

A Nino should make for a wet summer in a lot of areas which would help keep heat away. The country could use the rain.

We need to keep the mosquitos happy this year.

Not too often you have a cold winter in Alaska and the eastern lower 48.

A super Nino really needs all ingredients to come together to achieve it. I suppose it might be a little easier these days with the abundance of warm water everywhere but it’s still not easy. I would think we would need WWB to continue after this strong one to get us to super later this year. If trades come back later this spring, I don’t think we get to super.

It looks like there’s been lower pressures around Tahiti but it seems we’re missing the high pressure around Darwin which isn’t allowing the SOI to really tank.

The strong westerly wind burst is coming now. We'll see if snowman's triple cyclones develop and help to keep producing westerly wind bursts in the coming couple of months.

Hmm. It's funny how you'll believe model output forecasting several months ahead for this but not for anything else. lol

I always associated El Niño with a cool summer, a cold fall that turns mild in December and then can go either way after that depending on strength, location, etc. 2014 did that(at least over here), 2009 had the cold October after a very cool summer and 2006 seemed to follow the Nino script also. But the 15-16 Nino did not and they haven’t since.

I feel like the changes in the Pacific after the mid 2010s also took away the cooler summers.

How much do the Nina years prior to 23-24 matter though? Wouldn’t that very strong Nino essentially “reset” that?