roardog

A Nino should make for a wet summer in a lot of areas which would help keep heat away. The country could use the rain.

We need to keep the mosquitos happy this year.

Not too often you have a cold winter in Alaska and the eastern lower 48.

A super Nino really needs all ingredients to come together to achieve it. I suppose it might be a little easier these days with the abundance of warm water everywhere but it’s still not easy. I would think we would need WWB to continue after this strong one to get us to super later this year. If trades come back later this spring, I don’t think we get to super.

It looks like there’s been lower pressures around Tahiti but it seems we’re missing the high pressure around Darwin which isn’t allowing the SOI to really tank.

The strong westerly wind burst is coming now. We'll see if snowman's triple cyclones develop and help to keep producing westerly wind bursts in the coming couple of months.

Hmm. It's funny how you'll believe model output forecasting several months ahead for this but not for anything else. lol

I always associated El Niño with a cool summer, a cold fall that turns mild in December and then can go either way after that depending on strength, location, etc. 2014 did that(at least over here), 2009 had the cold October after a very cool summer and 2006 seemed to follow the Nino script also. But the 15-16 Nino did not and they haven’t since.

I feel like the changes in the Pacific after the mid 2010s also took away the cooler summers.

How much do the Nina years prior to 23-24 matter though? Wouldn’t that very strong Nino essentially “reset” that?

This is really going to be fascinating to watch. If we didn’t have that very strong Nino in 23-24, I think I would be fully on board for a super Nino this year. If we would have had a strong Nina in the last two years I might even be reluctantly on board. However, since we never get such a strong Nino so close in years, it just makes me feel like something is going to fail that the models can’t see right now. In 2022 we even had the MEI get down to something like -2.2 which made a rebound strong Nino seem likely. We have nothing like that this year.

At least this year snowman19 has something tangible to hang his hat on to get a warm winter. By last fall he had relegated to posting 3,127 tweets about high solar. lol

Not as accurate as the days of the bank clock.

Such a huge temp contrast across the sub this month. Through yesterday, we're only at +1.6 for the month here. It's been a real struggle to get any of that warmth this far northeast. There's actually still some patches of snow in the ditches from Winter.

Is a +PDO combined those other parameters really that much colder?