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roardog

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    Cass City,Michigan

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  1. roardog
    Alek is the king of using an op model run beyond 300 hours. lol
  2. roardog
    I swear they act like Canada is going to be filled with 50 degree air all winter so there won’t be air cold enough to be pulled down even briefly. Canada is likely to be a torch but a Canadian torch in the middle of winter is still cold enough for snow.
  3. roardog
    I remember we got a pretty good wet snowstorm here in January 2006( It was rain down your way) and that month was a massive torch.
  4. roardog
    Yeah. It could be 32F for a low in January here which would be a massive positive departure and still have a snowstorm ongoing.
  5. roardog
    Beating that record is not a slam dunk yet then.
  6. roardog
    What’s the record RONI? I forgot now.
  7. roardog
    We don’t even need a super Nino for winter to get cancelled around here. The last two winters were cancelled by the usual crowd and they were the best winter in years for much of this board.
  8. roardog
    The models have really been struggling with the North American pattern in the medium range for most of this month if you’ve been paying attention. They seem to be struggling the most with the area from Alaska down into the Pacific Northwest.
  9. roardog
    There’s no doubt it’s most likely going to be a very mild winter for the country overall. Maybe I’m being picky but I don’t like how 97-98 kind of progressed backward of what you’d expect from a Nino with February being the warmest month that season. If you’re going to use 97-98 as your analog season and December ends up being the warmest month then it wasn’t 97-98 like at all IMO. Maybe everyone disagrees with me, I don’t know. lol
  10. roardog
    Do you think we’ll progress the same as 1997 or are you just talking about the warmth being the same for the east coast when winter is over?
  11. roardog
    The North American pattern has looked nothing like 1997 to this point. 1997 had a cold November for much of the country. I’m skeptical that we see that same pattern this year. 1997 also had a wintrier pattern the first half of winter than the second. I’m also skeptical of that. We may very well end up with the same results as that winter when all is said and done but if the progression and the way we get there is completely different than is tough to say it’s a match IMO.
  12. roardog
    He’s back!!!!
  13. roardog
    It definitely seems ahead of recent years by about a week unless my memory of recent years is just way off. lol
  14. roardog
    Forky likes to oversimplify the atmosphere. If it was that simple then why did December 2006 through the first three quarters of January 2007 have a more hostile pattern than the same period in 1997-1998? 2006-2007 was a much, much weaker east based El Niño.
  15. roardog
    I just like interesting weather. For a quarter of the year or maybe even a little more, the only interesting weather around here is winter weather. When your options are a wind driven 35 or 40 degree rain or a wind driven snowstorm, I’ll obviously take the snowstorm every time. The problem around here is that a “warm” winter isn’t warm. It’s not like you’re going to be spending a bunch of outdoors enjoying the weather around here during a “warm” winter unless you like cloudy and windy days in the 30s.
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