roardog

I remember the MEI getting to something like -2.3 or something in 2022. I think that’s why that winter acted exactly like how I would picture a super Nina to act.

On another note, I noticed the CFS is trying to take us to a very strong Nino next winter. I wonder if it’s on to something or it’s just reactionary to what’s currently happening.

I don’t know. When I think front loaded winter, I don’t think of a massive arctic outbreak in late January and possible +PNA going into February.

I’m not nearly as knowledgeable as most people here on MJO stuff but the look at the end of the ensembles does not look like a phase 8 or even 7 for that matter to me. It almost looks like it’s moving to something you’d see in 6.

Looking at the end of the ensemble runs, it looks like a country wide blowtorch is developing for the end of the month into beginning of Feb as a big blue ball develops from Alaska to the south then moving into the west coast.

I didn’t know that. That’s surprising to me. It usually takes until sometime in May for it to be warm enough for dandelions around here. I usually don’t have to cut my lawn until May though either. So I guess NYC is like San Juan compared to here when it comes to plant life. lol

Spring snowstorms actually have the benefit of potentially much warmer air to the south causing a stronger storm. It just has to have cold enough air to work with on the cold side which isn’t always a guarantee the deeper into March you go.

It's crazy to me that soil temperatures could even be warm enough to produce a growing plant in what is a colder than normal winter at the latitude of Boston even if there's a week or two of above normal temps.

At least you’ll have a good snowpack to maximize the brutal cold that is coming next week.

Yeah. It’s rare to see a forecast bust that bad these days. Although my yard only had about an inch from this system, it was still a surprise. I wasn’t expecting much snow this morning and next thing I knew it was snowing very hard around 8am. I looked at the radar and there was snow developing all over the SE quarter of the state and I thought then that the forecast could be a bust.

If the western US doesn’t get some precip this winter it could be bad next summer if it’s dry out there.

The last real concrete i remember here was early January 2024. It snowed pretty hard for hours and we got like 2 inches of snow. lol. It was 33F or 34F the whole time.

Not too many posters have probably been paying attention to this storm but there has been a huge NW/stronger trend with this over the last few days. It doesn't mean much to most here but to see systems becoming stronger as they get closer in time instead of weaker like we've seen the last 10 years is different.

After 23-24 I feel like most posters here would rather take their chances with a decently +PDO if we have to deal with a stronger Nino. The -PDO with the mc forcing seemed to make things worse for sure.

What did RONI peak at in 23-24? I feel like the atmosphere behaved more like a strong/borderline super Nino with a -PDO than anything weaker than that.