roardog

Part of the issue is that the water temps have come way down over the last month. As of a couple of days ago Lake Michigan water temps were just a smidge above average and dropping fast. Lake Huron was average but dropping fast and Erie and Ontario were both below average now. I know you only care about Lake Michigan but the way the water temps are dropping, it’s going to take a significantly cold airmass for heavy lake effect snow. Also there was 1.2% ice cover already too.

Lake Superior is only one of the Great Lakes though. Both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are below average right now for this date. Lake Huron is right about average but dropping fast and Lake Michigan is a little above average. This is much different than what it was like in October when all of the Great Lakes were very warm.

I don’t think the lakes are that warm anymore. They were in October when the article in that link was written but the cold blasts in November that caused the heavy lake effect snow and the recent cold is putting a damper on that.

I don’t think the lake temps are even above normal anymore.

Chicago snow futility is already off the table for this season and it's only Dec. 4th. It just won't be the same here this winter without that thread. lol

I would think air that cold will drain south and east and cause wintry chances even if you aren't under the blue negative height anomalies.

I think it has to do with the lack of sustained western US riding the last 10 years or so. You need the +PNA to dive those systems southeast along the temperature gradient. They're still there, they’re just tracking north or northeast of most of this sub because the flow is too fast and pushing the ridging too far east into the western midwest.

Yeah. To really have a great winter around here, you need a wintry December. Without all three months it’s hard to label the winter as great imo. When winter doesn’t start until January, it feels like it’s over prematurely by March because it feels short at that point regardless of how good it is.

That’s quite a change. lol

Since AI is supposed to learn, it probably just looked at the last 10 years of every winter storm tracking south and weaker of the projected track a few days out. lol

Is a +WPO common during a Nina Autumn? Without looking into it, I feel like we usually see low heights out there during a Nina Autumn which helps with the common mild October we so often experience in a Nina.

It was interesting to track 10 years ago, now it’s just boring.

Doesn’t it pretty much always strengthen in November as we head into Winter?

It just seems crazy to me that a volcano can throw as much water vapor into the atmosphere as this one did and it’s pretty much shrugged off as nothing to see here.

Over here, we're only down .64 for the year and actually slightly above normal at this point in the month with 1.59 inches this month. You guys have definitely been much drier over there.