WVclimo

Snow has ended here.  2.6” total.  Just about equal to what fell on 1/15 and 1/19.

33° with moderate snow.  2” on the ground.  Winds N at 15.

Just now, stormtracker said:

Beltway block.

Corn dust

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm starting to think for me it's simply a matter of how heavy the precip is, not really worried that it goes north of me so much as the euro could be right and the system is just too weak to do much given the marginal temps.  It needs to thump.  

This seems like the perfect setup for you to get the jackpot in our region.  Hope you get pasted.

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Oh man....NE has gotta be sweating.  The Euro is like 2" for them.  Somebody said the UKIE came a little south too

NYC already cancelled schools for tomorrow, which used to be pretty rare.  And BOX has over a foot in the forecast for Boston proper.

Just now, WeatherShak said:

Jumping in the car for my two hour drive out your way. Looking forward to our local reports in the am.




.

You should do better up on that ridge than I will.  Enjoy !

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Starting to get some Jan 27, 2011 vibes for the NW crew. You have:

1.) A dynamic, strengthening system moving through to the south.

2.) Rain to start so no pretreatment can be put down on roads.

3.) Heavy rates.

I was thinking when the NAM came out this morning how the forecasted vertical velocities reminded me of that storm.

WSW’s extended eastward to include all of Allegany Co., MD and eastern Mineral Co. WV for mainly the higher ridges there.  WWA for Washington Co., MD but not my yard yet.

14 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

If I drive 20 Miles se theres nothing. 20 miles nw there's a foot.  Wow

The 6” line is 3 miles to my north 

I’ve received like 100” of UKMET snow this season.

Last 4 GFS runs

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yes--weather can still weather. Weather is chaotic and can do crazy things that can certainly deviate from expectation. That is something I've learned over time. Recency bias is real tho...5 ninas tracking here have made me pull my already thinning hair out *pull hair out emoji if we had one*

lol I’ve probably been bald longer than you’ve been alive.  But I’m sure as heck not gonna worry about getting shut out in 2024-25 just yet.

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Tell me what part of these predictions I'm misinterpreting.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/01/will-la-nina-return-this-fall-the-tea-leaves-are-unusually-strong/

This article from last month:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2024-el-nino-update-birds

"Chances of La Niña conditions are topping 50-60% by the Northern Hemisphere late summer/fall, as many of our computer climate models are predicting that La Niña will develop. La Niña has its own set of global impacts, of course, including a tendency to increase Atlantic hurricane activity. We’ll be keeping an eagle eye on conditions in the tropical Pacific as this El Niño wanes over the next several months."

Y'all have no mercy whatsoever. Like literally every climate prediction I've read is saying la nina is more likely right now. What about that is wrong?

1995-96 was a moderate Nina and Baltimore had a 60”+ winter.  1999-2000 was a strong Nina and had three great weeks of winter including a blizzard.  
There just aren’t any absolutes in weather.

6 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

Having lived through a few winters like that, I can assure you I am that much of a weenie.

I measured 15” on 3/21/2018.  Biggest snow ever in all of my 60 birthdays on that date

1 minute ago, Ji said:

haha....there was two of them? I remember one...and it was really wet but very pretty

First one was on the 24th and dropped 3-6” across the area.  The one on the 28th looked huge on satellite in the SE but could never consolidate.  I think we ended with 3-4” after it snowed lightly all day and finally started to accumulate well after dark.

2 hours ago, biodhokie said:

"We got the 28-3 head coach! No, not Belichick, the other one!"

I texted my son who’s a Cowboys fan. His immediate response: “thank God he’s out of Dallas!”

Interesting that while the suburbs were in the 20’s overnight, this area never fell below 40.   I guess cloud cover was the culprit.

9 minutes ago, stormy said:

A lot of high anticipation is quite obvious this afternoon.    Will mid February to mid March thrill snow lovers in the tristate region or will it end in disappointment???? 

We cannot know at this time. Ask me around April 1.

Psu has often referred to 1958 Feb/March.  The advertised possibilities are now reminding me of 1960. During mid Feb - mid March of 1960, brutal cold and repetitive snowstorms nearly paralyzed the western Carolina's and Virginia.

While your dreaming about the possibilities, read the details of 1960 from Laurence Lee of NOAA:   file:///C:/Users/James/Downloads/Review_Feb-Mar_1960(1).pdf

 

Here’s the link:

https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Review_FebMar_1960.pdf

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Oh man I remember that. Was it a close call or no chance lol?

Pretty sure it was a cutter.  Indiana and Ohio got dumped on.  
For our area it just loaded up a bunch more water weight onto snow-covered roofs.  I had a large warehouse in PG County at that time, and the roof sagged a couple of feet.  

ETA: a big-time severe outbreak in the SE also.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20030222

Less than four days after the snow ended in Feb 2003, another storm dropped 2.50-3.00” of rain.  

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast I’m not sure the lack of an HECS after PD isn’t partly just small ample size. Baltimore has only had 9 20” storms in 130+ years of records. One of those did happen in late March!  They’ve had several 10” plus storms after Feb 20. I’m not sure with a sample of 9 in 130 years we can say that the odds really collapse that much between Feb 20-March 10. Obviously they do degrade some and after mid March there is a cliff at some point. But given the right pattern I don’t think a 20” storm late Feb or early March is that much less likely. 
 

Thinking back on my lifetime the bigger issue is there often has not been the right pattern between Feb 20-March 10 for that kind of storm. We’ve had some great looks mid and late March when I do think it was getting difficult for DC and Baltimore to cash in big. But Feb 20-March 10 has kinda been a weird dead zone many years. Plenty of “good” patterns but not really many I can remember thinking an hecs was likely or even possible. 
 

 

The one near-miss from that part of the calendar that still bothers me is March 1-2, 1980.  The DC-BALT corridor pulled off a 4-6” snowfall with temps in the upper teens, but eastern NC up to the Tidewater of VA had 1-2 feet with similar temps.

https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview

Just now, blizzardmeiser said:

Campbell’s aggressiveness came back to hurt him. Should’ve taken the points. 

Twice.  Had he taken the two field goals he would have had a chance with 3:00 left.

1.25” overnight.  5.23” now for January.  12.15” total since the drought “broke” 10 weeks ago.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Anyone ever chased a true Carolina Crusher or down to VA beach? I’d love to see some serious snow by the ocean but I feel like you could wait days to be plowed out… if they’ve got plows down there

I chased to Virginia Beach in early January 2017.  Stayed in a cabin at First Landing State Park.  Would highly recommend.  The rangers actually shoveled us out.

There was a blizzard warning in effect and winds on the beach were over 55 mph.  Plows were running and with a four wheel drive vehicle I had no difficulty getting around.