canderson

Wasn’t there a storm here in the late 90s or something that had Mets predict8ng 2’ snow and it ended up a rainstorm with no frozen precip? I’ve heard that urban legend.

I’m sitting at 37, hit 39 today.

Grid forecast actually calls for less that .10” zr so they’re going with sleet over freezing rain.

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

If the NAM is right we get greater than 5” in 4 hours. LOL heavy snow inbound 

CTP has to be factoring in quite heavy rates tomorrow evening before the warm air hits. 

Which sounds awesome!

CTP is going to the mat with its snow totals, aren’t they.

God bless them.

WHAT THE F. That graphic is over the WSW even.

@MAG5035 you're the pro here: What do you think CTP is seeing that us novice guys are missing in model studies? Clearly there is something different other than "they see cold air lasting longer" because they'd have a reason I can't imagine honestly.

I don't know if I've ever seen CTP this bullish on a marginal type setup. 

3 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

I'd trust them over all the southern tier people doom and glooming because they're not in the jackpot for once 

Ha!

I hope you get nailed (by snow, well the other type too because you need to keep warm). 

My guess:

Lanco/York: 1"-3", .1" ice, lots of rain
Harrisburg metro area: 2"-4", .2" ice, lots of rain
Ridge and Valley: 4"-8"
Cashtown: 1-2", then rain
Williamsport/MAG land: 6" - 8"
Clearfield: 34"

Euro almost looks like more plain rain than zr to me, am I misinterpreting? 

(fwiw I'll be ok with this, ice is no bueno)

8 minutes ago, theLancster said:

I'm planning on taking Amtrak from Lancaster to Philadelphia early Saturday, then coming back on the 6:55 to 8:10 train.  Am I running any kind of risk of getting stuck in Philadelphia?  I'm having trouble telling when the various types of precipitation start based on these maps.  Any help would be appreciated, thanks!

They've already cancelled some trains and modified service. Check their website for current schedule. 

Does this mean we can STOP TALKING ABOUT THE ICON?

Because honestly I'll punt this storm entirely if that's the end result. 

Also the GFS if this comes to fruition kicked EVERYONE'S ass on this. 

GFS really hasn't wavered for days and you could argue other models (except the damn stubborn Germans) have come back to it. 

So say Harrisburg gets prolonged freezing rain Saturday night (I think it's possible with CAD issues here) - how/when the hell do you shovel? 

Wait until mid-morning Sunday before the wind kicks up and try to take care of it before it becomes a freezer that needs defrosting?

I just caught up to the overnight posts and HOLY MOLY the living on the turnpike discussion is gold. 

Had around 1.5" or so total overnight. It's a really nice, fluffy snow - the best kind.

I guess it gets washed away tomorrow night though ehhhhhhhhhh

RGEM is a torch at the surface. 

I don’t get why the ICON has all of a sudden become en vague.

Hell what’s the JMA showing? 

If the NAM is right I’ll buy every person in this thread as many drinks as they can handle at McGrath’s in hbg.

Nice covering of snow out on untreated surfaces.

CTP has essentially removed the word snow from my grid forecast this Saturday. 

Saturday

A slight chance of snow between 10am and 1pm, then rain, snow, and sleet. High near 33. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. 

Saturday Night

Freezing rain and sleet. Low around 31. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. 

Sunday

Snow and sleet likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Also the Susquehanna here in Harrisburg has started to build ice for the first time this year. 

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm going to lay this out there and say that with so many storms in the past there is a clear north trend in the days proceeding it. Often, just before onset there is a step back. Let's will this bad boy a little bit further south on tomorrow's guidance.  (weenie handbook rule #6547) 

I see unfortunately absolutely nothing keeping it from lifting further north.

Seems overzealous but what do I know.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019


PAZ036-056>059-063>066-180345-
/O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg,
Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York,
and Lancaster
240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow followed by heavy mixed precipitation possible.
  Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized
  amounts up to 10 inches in higher elevations possible. Ice
  accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch are
  possible.

* WHERE...Lower Susquehanna Valley.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Significant reductions in visibility are possible.

I guess the good news is Sunday we can go for a nice walk. 

Lesson here kids: NEVER bet against Eric Hurst. 

4 minutes ago, daxx said:

Northwest of Harrisburg does not go above freezing at surface for the entire event. The highest I see for State college is 28 at the surface.

That's a sleetstorm then a snowstorm then isn't it?