canderson

I’m just the messenger! Lol

CTP’s 11:24 pm write up doesn’t really expect warning level snows north of Lancaster. They say it “may” be needed but not expected. Latest ensemble probabilities have increased likelihood for warning criteria snowfall across our southern tier Sun-Mon, with sufficient confidence to hoist Winter Storm Watch headlines from Somerset to Lancaster Counties. This in good collaboration with LWX and PHI and latest Snowprobs, which are showing nearly categorical likelihood of exceeding Advisory criteria and 65-70% likelihood of exceeding 6" over York and Lancaster Counties. Watches *may* need to be expanded slightly northward in time, but it appears that most of the remainder of central PA south of I80 is looking at Advisory criteria snow, and at this time no ptype issues to speak of.

Ukie disagrees strongly with the RGEM and CMC

In the words of Gretchen Wieners, that fetch though.

That’s a little tedious these days unfortunately.

I love Canada. We own 86 acres there actually x hopefully later this summer we can actually go back.

It’s like someone sent a nuke to Harrisburg

It looks like more than 2” qpf for MDT lol

A 1001 low sitting over the lower Indiana/Illinois border is beautiful.

The ICON runs on schnitzel, strudel and hefeweizen thus it is superior to all models.

Honest question: is the RGEM ever accurate?

The NAM looks like the ideal Miller B without any weird hiccups. The question: does it happen?

I love it when @MAG5035 talks dirty to us.

A bit but nothing like we had the last two days. Probably gusts to upper 20s unless you’re in east Lancaster county imo.

Call @sauss06 I bet he can get a firetruck to come take you.

That GFS is the stuff of dreams. Watch 0z be totally different lol.

If I get 6” out of this I’ll be pleased. Less I’ll be sad but not really mad. More I’ll be ecstatic But half a foot seems reasonable.

Congrats NJ and western Virginia. Wow.

Euro incoming - my bet: it breaks lots of hearts.

Cheerios? You guys skipping the best healthy breakfast - overnight oatmeal.

So the GFS ensemble is decidedly north of the OP. WTF? This storm's like trying to predict the outcome of a first blind date.

Here's the 12z Ukie, stolen from the MA thread.

Very true but we have definitive trends here with these runs. I have to think they're picking up some atmoshperic info I can't see.

Yup. I'm not counting on any coastal snow from this. Primary/WAA is the only thing I'd trust.