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Posts posted by canderson
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18 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:
The lows going to ride the boundary. Unless that low is tracking across southern pa with a high to our north and our vulnerability to CAD, I can’t for the life of me see a low tracking south of DC, a weak one at that, is going to send a driving rainstorm through Harrisburg. This has ice written all over it
.CAD always last longer than modeled. Ice is all but guaranteed- just hope the rates are heavier.
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Our car was covered in ice running to let our friends dog out.
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13 minutes ago, paweather said:
It just can't cut.
Flash flood warnings ahead?
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They’ve all sucked - the NAM mayyyybe less so that the others.
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Wait we are in a WWA? We have to go to a friends tonight to let their dog out .... is that a bad idea? It’s over a few interstate bridges.
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I see no way we don’t get a significant ice storm. The setup is ideal.
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40 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:
Depending on how far below freezing the rain falls dictates how fast the accrual process is. Currently, with MDT forecast to get 0.87" of freezing rain, it is highly unlikely that all of that rain ends up accruing. If the temp is 30 you won't get anywhere near 0.87" of accrual. I have no idea how cold it would have to be to even reach 0.50" of accretion. 25 degrees? 20 degrees? Actually, another factor affecting accretion would be the intensity of the rain. Light rain has a much higher chance to accrue versus moderate or heavy rain.
Correct, the heavier the rate the less accretion.
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1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:
Agreed. .5-.75 is the danger zone. Anything over .75 is catastrophic.
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What’s the criteria here for an ice storm warning?
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Keep them dripping.
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Just now, Voyager said:
Did you see Houston with a low of 12 after getting snow and sleet?
Yup. It’ll be the once a decade Interstate 45 Ice Skating Extravaganza.
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The 18z GFS gives my parents in NE Texas basically 2 feet of snow through next Thursday. They average less than .5” a year and iirc the record snowfall is 5”. They also might hit 0 Monday morning. I never remember it getting under 15.
It’s going to be an epic disaster with infrastructure failures. Be safe @MillvilleWx. And best wishes to you going through personal things.- 2
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Just now, paweather said:
Just trust the ICON.
What’s the CMC show? It gives us snow in June lol.
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2 minutes ago, paweather said:
You got it. Per GFS. This is significant ICE storm. Hope the 0z comes in colder.
We might swing and miss on most all these waves ... except the one that gives us .75” zr. Of course!
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5 minutes ago, paweather said:
Tuesday is going to big, whether ICE or +SN.
Looks like a viscous ice storm to me, but again I’m not smart at this stuff lol.
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My parents outside Longview already have a sheet of ice on their driveway tonight. I lived there 25 years and don’t think I ever saw a sub 10 degree day so they’re in for rare territory this next week. Best wishes to all down there, things are built for that cold and snow.
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The low in a lot of Texas is below 5 Monday night. I wish we got cold weather like them once in a while!
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Meanwhile back home in Texas, there was a 130 car pileup in Fort Worth due to an icy interstate (35 West at 28th if you know the area). At least 6 have died.
This video is banana.
https://www.facebook.com/100003153511071/posts/3697402730374808/
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I’ll call this 2.5”. Was hoping for 3” but beggars can’t be choosers.
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Look to be close to if not at 1” already. Radar looks good for a nice 3”+ event here.
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Roads starting to cave here in midtown HBG.
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1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:
I would assume @canderson was referencing Otis, the drunk from Andy Griffith.
We have bingo. I’m only in mid middle 30s but love me some Andy Griffith Show.
Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Posted
My parents’ grid forecast in northeast Texas is NUTS. Please pray for Texas. They can’t handle these temps ask the infrastructure and houses can’t handle it either, or the snow/ice.