That kicker is really whats messing with this on all modeling basically, Some of these runs have it further east booting it offshore, But the system around the 23rd looks to be the one to watch though.
I'm going to be heading to Jay/Livermore on Saturday to ride out of there, Our local club here though is out with some of our bigger equipment and i'm hearing the trails are good.
I will have to say, Riding in -14 with wind chills of -30's+ on Friday back from the West Forks to Eustis was the coldest i've experienced, I rode the county in -30's before but flat calm winds, A huge difference, It was pretty brutal.