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mappy

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    January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

    I mean mostly every model has me getting 2” or less. But guess we will see what happens. 

    the further west you go the better the chances are, obviously. but if precip comes in hot and heavy enough you could put down a 3+ inches before any flip. 

    its going to come down to real time observations, there are so many minute details that will make a big difference on who booms vs who busts. 

    • Like 1
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    January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

    Northern Baltimore county was added to the watch. I think that happened with this morning’s package.

    Indeed. I highly doubt I see 5" out of this. 2-3" sounds reasonable IMBY before a flip.  

    MDZ006-051900-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T1500Z-240107T0300Z/
Northern Baltimore-
449 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations up to five inches, and ice accumulations up to
  two tenths of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...Northern Baltimore County.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
    • Like 1

    January 2024 Banter

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    It amazes me every winter that someone questions why the NWS issue watches when and why. Watches will usually be issued regardless of an adjustment to a warning, or an advisory. It’s a watch for winter weather ahead in the next couple days, where probably tomorrow will be adjusted to warnings or advisories. 

    Its no different than a severe thunderstorm watch in the summer, where warnings or special weather statements are issued as needed. 

    • Like 5
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    January 2024 Banter

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

    Yeah, I have a friend over in NE Loudoun Co who still follows him. Every time he mentions him, I just change the subject. Have spent to many hours of my life telling him to unfollow. 

    you're not alone. helps to put him on ignore here too ;) 

    • Like 1
    • Haha 2

    January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, EstorilM said:

    Can’t see where you are on my phone, but 850s look good for most of the region.
     

    Surface temps are definitely struggling now though, with just about the worst timing possible (that’s a big part of what killed us, this was initially going to be an all-overnight Sat storm.) 

    But yeah, if the rates get up there something should stick… LWX seems to think most of this will transition to rain, which I don’t really agree with given most of the 850s in the area. 
     

    It’s starting to sound like one of those messes that just goes back and forth. 

    Oh sorry -- I'm in far northern Baltimore county, about 5 miles south of the PA line. Have some elevation too, which is helpful.

    850s aren't too much of an issue, but the surface will be the issue. Could see it starting as snow for most (except Eastern Shore and far southern MD), but not accumulating where it's 33 or so at the surface. Places north and west will hang on to the cold a bit longer, and with heavy precip, it will snow even if it doesn't amount to much. It's most likely going to be a real-time event where every degree makes a difference on what is falling and what is accumulating. 

    • Like 1

    January Discobs 2024

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    The last week has been cold up my way with lows in the 20s/30s - hoping that helps going into the weekend. 

    1/4 - 31.2 
    1/3 - 23.9
    1/2 - 25.6
    1/1 - 31.9
    12/31 - 35.2
    12/30 - 34.3
    12/29 - 37.0

    January 2024 Banter

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, aldie 22 said:

    It's hilarious how one model run can screw up people's mood. What happened to the 3 different scenarios? Are we locked into this one now from the euro?

    trends!

    January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

    lol, I wonder how much sleet is really gonna be at play with this one.  Seems like mostly a rain or snow situation, but I could be wrong.

     

    You're right, but even rain/snow line shows up on CC

    Checking GFS soundings for MBY, and I'm 31-32 the entire time. Going to be a mix of rain, snow, rain/snow even for me.

    • Like 1

    January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, 87storms said:


    It’s dicey up here, too. I’m kinda surprised at the model snow output, all things considered…but I’ll take it.

    Elevation will only help so much, eventually the warmer column will win. Front end thump is where it's at before we all dread the mix line on CC lol

    • Like 6
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