mappy

Dry air eating up my snow squall. 

1 minute ago, NoVaWx said:

It’ll be a nice drive in case it dries up before it gets here 

Fair. Enjoy! 

Just now, mappy said:

Especially when it’s coming from the west, of course it’s still sunny when sun is still mostly east in the sky 

See. Sunny with dark skies west 

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Snow squalls come in fast and will often be sunny ahead of it if we get it.

Especially when it’s coming from the west, of course it’s still sunny when sun is still mostly east in the sky 

Just now, NoVaWx said:

Same here. Might chase to western loudoun here soon. 

Is it not going to impact you? Imma letting it come to me lol

18 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

25 on the morning walk with the dogs.

Up in perryville/port deposit for a poker tournament at 11 - will need to keep an eye on radar in case a snow squall makes it here and poke my nose outside to see it if so…

It’s coming 

Nice dark clouds to my west. 

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Anyone along 83 north of Baltimore and can explain the huge flash of light that I just saw???

My guess a transformer. Had a very brief power outage before 7 

10 hours ago, TinGTown said:

Thanks mappy!  I know you have been here  long time as well as Ji.  I should have mentioned you earlier.  I still don't get the cray cray on here about snow and why people fight about snow (regarding model runs, Kuchera rates, etc..). WTF?

I’ve been here too long. Not as long as some who go further back to Eastern and a forum before that, but long enough that my mind frame on snow has changed as I have gotten older. I used to live and die by the models, let it impact my day to day mood and such. But hard times in life make you realize some things just aren’t worth letting ruin your day. If it snows great, if it doesn’t…oh well. I’m still watching and hoping but it doesn’t affect me like it used to when we fail. 

2 hours ago, TinGTown said:

So, I'm sure I will get crushed by this post, but...

Is following weather really your hobby?   Why not golf, trap and skeet, sking...things you can control?

NS, TPV, phasing, trough, suppression, etc...?  I won't lie.  I am a snow lover and have lurked on this forum in winter for years when there is a chance of snow.  I have done the same when I owned a home in the Outer Banks when a hurricane was predicted.  I think I was here when this site was Eastern weather (but I'm old, so I could be wrong}.  I know of Jeb walks, Wes Junker, Bob Chill back in the day and many others.

Pro Mets (red taggers) make their living by observing and giving their best advice/prediction/forecast on their knowledge and what they have observed.  I am very appreciative of these people taking time to post here. I also appreciate those that are here to learn and contribute.

However, it has always been a pissing match between amateur observers about forecasts.  There is also a weird dynamic between those that love snow (clinging to the best model run) and those that are more pessimistic.  What gives?  The weather will do what it does.

 

 

 

Snow is serious business. The kind of meltdowns we see during winter, do not happen during severe season. It’s just the love for snow, jebwalks in the snow, getting the most snow. That’s it. Just snow. 

Y’all. It’s one model run outcome. Stop with the next shit and all that. 

19 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

The 557ww model also out to sea, though it looks abit closer to the coast than 12z UM, ACCESS-G, and GEOS-5. Reminds me more of the look on 12z ARPEGE

lol don’t ever change 

blame waterboy if it fails

18 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro/EPS not budging at all has me shook.....

its just snow? 

4 minutes ago, Shad said:

Please Nobody mention the word that rhymes with Bread today.

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

You mean this one?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

snip from it, reference our storm

Recent models remain agreeable with showing shortwave energy

pivoting through the southern side of the broad and deep trough

serving to form a surface low near the East Coast Tuesday into

Wednesday. 12/18Z and now the 00Z model guidance generally shows

low pressure developing near the Southeast Coast by early Tuesday,

but with some spread in the formation/track that is amplified by

the fact that even relatively small differences would have

considerable sensible weather differences. With the 12/18Z suite

of models, the GEFS and EC mean showed similar low tracks

northward across the western Atlantic and a fairly strong system

reaching New England or the Canadian Maritimes by early Wednesday.

12/18Z GFS runs were most like the means, so favored that cluster

for the WPC forecast. The 12Z and now the 00Z ECMWF deterministic

runs are more offshore where hardly any precipitation is onshore

of the East Coast. This seems unlikely based on other guidance and

the EC ensemble mean and members, but unfortunately the

ECMWF-initialized machine learning models did not seem to run for

the 12Z cycle, so we lack that piece of information that could

help with the model diagnostics. Meanwhile the 12Z CMC showed

reasonable alignment in the track though a bit faster than

preferred, but now the 00Z CMC has a track considerably inland

that would spread rain to some Mid-Atlantic areas. The 00Z GFS

also shows differences from its previous runs, with a dual

structure to the low early Wednesday with some low pressure

hanging near the DelMarVa, and not consolidating until later

Wednesday. Overall, the forecast details remain low confidence as

the storm track spread is still high.

4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

@thedude11 isn’t arrogant. 

I don’t think that’s our Dude either 

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

I think Heisy and jjjjjjjjjjjay are the same person. They both end their posts with a double hard return followed with a period. Like this

 

.

I believe it’s actually a taptalk thing. I remember it did that for me too when I posted from it vs safari 

With that said, tomorrow sounds like a good day for a thread. 

yall know creating a thread doesn't have a single impact on a storm, right? 

7 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

The smoke from the Canada wildfires. That will be something I will never forget. Nothing else came close to being that memorable for me weatherwise in 2023. 

That and the early August severe event. 

53 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

So...it IS actually fun and interesting, at least to me. I did the requisite 15-min Google search-and-skim on the geodetic systems that you, @H2O and @Random Chaos were discussing on this page and the last page in this discussion. It's fascinating to read about how/when standards are updated, and how the new standard compares to the old ones. While I am...WAY...beyond being able to change careers at the dinosaur stage of my current professional life, I wish I'd had the interest and ability to learn more about surveying and GIS far earlier in my career. I love how it holds the possibility to get you out and away from an office desk/chair and out in the field...   

Ha, I never go out in the field. I am very comfortable behind the computer doing my thing  

41 minutes ago, H2O said:

At least most of the stuff you work with HAD coordinates.  Old plats and deeds I worked on only gave descriptions like: 

From the stump by old man Miller's barn go northerly 100 rods to the rock.  then go northeasterly 50 chains to the cedar post next to Ichabod Crane's headstone, thence southerly 85 cubits to the middle of the crick in Johnston's potato field, then westerly 400 paces to the point of beginning.  

If I even had NAD27 I cried tears of happiness.  

LOLOL much like me being told they have GIS data to send, and it's a PDF with layers I have to georeference, then digitize. Sigh. 

41 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

I’m so glad school is throwing the GIS stuff at me because it can sometimes be fun, but it’s also useful in case meteorology doesn’t work out. (But it will.)

Yay GIS!! It's the best. 

37 minutes ago, H2O said:

you could always tell who was using 27 vs 83 cause there was an immediate 30 ft shift at the minimum.  Good times!!

Right?! NAD27 should just be abolished IMO

8 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Really appreciate these inputs. Of course, I have a manual bilge pump, but as you infer...I gotta BE there shortly after the power fails on the sump pump.    Have read several recs for water-powered backup sump pumps, if one is attached to municipal water (which I am)...a pricier option, but works for some.

I usually pride myself on being pretty tech savvy...but then some of y'all come along and have these conversations that make me realize what a techtard I really am...

hahaha we are talking about coordinate systems. 

each coordinate system has a geodetic datum, which is the reference used for positioning the earth when locations were collected. Most commonly used is NAD83, which is based on the geodetic reference system of 1980. NAD27 is a totally different ellipse. If you were to plot the same points using each datum, they would not line up exactly, there would be an offset to take into account that change in earth reference position. 

fun stuff! 

35 minutes ago, H2O said:

Knew you’d jump in on this.

It's incredibly annoying hahaha. I will be sent coordinates, but not the system they are in, so it's a guessing game. Always guess feet vs meters first, then narrow down to state plane or utm zones. I never ever check NAD27 systems. It's ancient. Get with the times people. 

54 minutes ago, H2O said:

A lot of entities still use 29.  Just as some use NAD27 for state plane and not 83.  But those will be obsolete soon too.  Nerds and their GPS keep refining the earth geoid.

people who use NAD27 for state plane instead of NAD83 should be maimed. fuck those people.