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mappy

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    Hurricane Maria

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

    Side note: Jose has been around for 2 weeks and will likely stick around for several more days.

    Kinda crazy how he'll dictate what happens to the US. Crazy times, it's been a long time since we've had such a great hurricane tracking season.

     

    14 minutes ago, Paragon said:

    Jose is so weak and over such cold waters, I wonder what's keeping him on life support for so long.

     

    9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Jose is hybrid at this point...which allows it to maintain more intensity. 

    so these posts def belong in the Jose thread. 

    • Like 4

    Hurricane Maria

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

    The Euro says the trough kicks Maria OTS at the very last second, I don't see it. Anyway it's a day 8-9 forecast. Just good to see an exciting model run

    sketched_59c166502bcee.png

    could have sworn you said it was imminent that it was heading to NJ? 

    • Like 6

    Mid Atlantic Met Class Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Start with the very basic ens mean plots. Op models are a bad place to make decisions on longer lead stuff (beyond 5-7 days). They'll jump every run and present all kinds of different  solutions. When the rare case happens like with the blizzard where they don't jump then they definitely carry a good bit of weight. But that hasn't been the case a single time this year so relying on them is bad practice. 

    Here's a good exercise. The follow up storm beyond this weekend is a big warm rainer. It's nearly a lock now. Using the MSLP panels from the GEFS/EPS from last night show a very strong signal for a rain storm with low pressure passing to the north. High pressure off the coast and low pressure to the NW = very strong SW midlevel and surface flow. Terrible for winter wx:

    gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_29.png

     

     

    ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_8.png

     

     

    Mean mid level temps for the same period:

     

    ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png

     

     

    What happens after gets really muddy really quick. First thing to do is think back in history to how often we get storms right on the heels of a strong NW low passage/cold front with a western atlantic ridge. Can you think of many? I can't either. It's worked out before (2014 & 15 we're very kind) but not nearly often enough to invest a whole lot of energy at 7+ day leads.  The timing has to be perfect.  Anything forming along the trailing boundary is going to be a fast mover and we would need everything to come together just right. It's complicated and we don't do complicated well.  

    Take a look at this panel. This is right about when the front is clearing after the rain storm. See the red ball off the coast of canada in the wetern atlantic? Think of that as a storm vacuum. Anything running the boundary is going to race to that spot. See the sharp sw-ne gradient on the height contours? Think of those lines as lanes in a highway. The steering mechanism in the upper levels. What we want to see is a big blue ball where the red ball is and a much more w-e gradient with the lines instead of sw-ne. The w-e gradient is called confluence. This blocks storms and provides a feed of cold air from the north. Not the case right now:

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.png

     

    Ensembles do show the *possibility* of something running the boundary after the cold sweeps in. But it all has to break right. A storm may not form at all. Or it will form harmlessly off the coast and rain/snow on the fishes. Being in the bullseye can work out but if it does happen it will be beating strong odds against it happening vs taking advantage of a favorable setup. 

     

    Here's the ens MSLP plots from the GEFS/EPS. You can see the signal for a coastal running the boundary:

     

    ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_10.png

     

     

    gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_37.png

     

     

    What are the problems with these mean plots? The big one is high pressure placement. It's directly to the west of the storm. What we want to see is high pressure over the top. If that was the case right now it would be a much better storm signal at range. 

     

    Unless you want to pay for detailed EPS panels, the best free tools are the basic EPS mean panels on trop tidbits but another fantastic GEFS tool is also available on TT. Never overlook the 24 hour mean precip panels and the individual member low pressure location plots. Gives you an idea how the clusters look and also chances for precip. 

    The 0z GEFS actually looks pretty good with both panels for the trailing wave. 

     

    Here's the mean precip panel. It's awful wet for the lead time to be honest. .5" QPF @ 216 hours is pretty strong:

     

    gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_33.png

     

    Here's the MSLP member locations. Pretty muddy to be honest but there are some really big hits on the 0z GEFS and also the EPS run so hope is alive:

     

    gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_37.png

     

     

     

    Is there a signal for a follow up storm? Yes, there definitely is. Is it a strong signal? No, definitely not. The setup is tenuous, the lead is long, and going off past history we don't do well with this kind of stuff. 

    Now is time to monitor trends. The idea is out there. The possibility is there. If consensus within the ensemble suites keeps improving then it will get more interesting. For right now we just have a modest chance at an unusual way to get a good storm to work out. That's it. 

     

     

    Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    for me personally:

     

    Jan 2000

    Dec 2009

    Jan 96

    Feb 2010 (both)

     

     

    The Jan 2000 storm is what got me into weather, so I can't diss it. But do remember the 96 storm quite well and it was amazing. I will always be biased for Dec 2009, for obvious reasons. :)

     

    Id put this past storm above the Feb 2010 storms... rest stays as is. For me. 

    Redemption Room

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    I love this place. I hope I'm able to buy a room in here come January 22nd

    We, I mean.. It may be booked by then. Should get your reservations in now while there is plenty of rooms.

    Couple nice corner rooms with south and west facing views, perfect for watching the snow move in, Egyptian 400 thread count sheets, king size bed, spa tub that can fit four.

    May only cost you your first child, but we...I mean, the owners of the place may offer you a deal

    Redemption Room

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    I feel so bad for you, Mappy. How will you survive with only 25" of snow lol. We all know there's a north trend coming. Glad we have a little cushion down here. Plus, you hog up all the good thunderstorms during summer :)

    I feel bad for me too

    Redemption Room

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    It's gonna be a roller coaster ride and a half that's for sure. Hopefully you can post in this thread at weeks end with deck pics and the little one playing in snow up to her chest :)

    That'd be fantastic. Not getting too excited, if the storm is still there Wednesday...then I'll get excited.

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