Stormlover74
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Everything posted by Stormlover74
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Wait snowman says cold and you don't? What is happening?
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Gfs is still wet, it just spreads it out over 2 days whereas euro is in one shot
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Looks cool and dry that week but I suppose we could squeeze out a light event
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Not really sure. maybe 2003-04 and 2013-14 according to this list https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm -
DT LA NINA IS DYING .... if there is NO La Nina then this winter has very good chance of being AT LEAST NORMAL if not more. Since 1994 .,.,., 30 years ago... there have only been 7 winters with NO El Nino or La Nina .
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Cutter
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Gfs is further southeast and weaker. It likely comes north in future runs. Timing of the cmc would be awful as the worst would be morning and midday
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Looks like a cold rain for turkey day. Snow for the interior. Parade may not be fun especially if alot of wind too
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I took a drive up 206 from hillsborough and once I got to 300 feet around peapack I started to see accumulations. And yeah when I got a few miles out of Chester it really picked up and even roads were slushy
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Ok. That's probably where I was going to go. Don't have enough time to go too far north
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Still stuck at 38. Probably have to wait til to tonight for any flakes. Will be in somerville later so tempted to drive up 206 to Morris County to see some snow but not sure if there will be any this afternoon
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It's insane right now
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WWA end at 10am but euro keeps precip going all day until at least early evening. Would think that's mostly snow for those areas perhaps mixing back with rain in the afternoon?
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39 with moderate rain. Over 1.5" on the day now
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Hrrr has flakes flying tomorrow morning down to just west of the city
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Precip is moving in about 4 different directions
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The line looks closer to you
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Thundering
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Gfs has a few inches on Thanksgiving now
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Radar's looking good. Hrrr jackpots Monmouth and ocean now though at least initially
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Yeah either way we get a good soaking overnight. It's during the day and Friday that seem to be up in the air. I could see it being mostly showery stuff with a few tenths added to what we have by tomorrow morning. That's what the gfs has now. Cmc rgem euro remain the wettest
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The nam has been oddly dry with the backside of the system where the other models keep precip going all day Thursday and part of Friday. It does have the snow now later on in the day and it's at the end of its range so who knows
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I've never tracked a rainstorm so closely. It does feel like a blizzard is coming and I'm waiting for the nam to show me flipping to sleet
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Mt Holly As colder air wraps in on the back side, expect rain to change to snow across the higher elevations and perhaps even a little mixing at lower elevations. Temperatures look marginally cold at the surface, however elevations above 1500 feet could pick up a decent amount of snow in Pocono region (Pocono plateau in particular). As of now, 1-4 inches of snow is forecast Thursday night into Friday for the Poconos, however depending on the track of the low and the wraparound moisture, amounts could be higher. Some of this could get more into the higher elevations of far northwestern New Jersey. Some snow may develop a little farther south and east, however accumulations should drop of to little or nothing. Overall, a tricky forecast as there are several moving parts. upton Colder air will move in Thursday night as the sfc low occludes and moves up into SW New England and the lower Hudson Valley, and the upper low moves overhead. This will introduce potential for wet snow across the Lower Hudson Valley and far interior NE NJ Thu night into Fri AM, especially in the higher elevations. The timing and location of this process will ultimately determine the extent of the colder air and where the most organized forcing sets up.
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No hard freeze so maybe not
