Stormlover74

More front end snow this run

1 minute ago, swataz said:

I am sure there is no consensus on this yet, but has this storm's start time been moving steadily earlier? The WSW has a initiation of 12 p.m., but I wouldn't expect snow that early on LI. Are we looking at 3 p.m. or so now or am I reading things wrong?

The nam has the arrival time between 5 and 7pm west to east

Nam is further north with the primary and changes over to rain fairly quickly at the city and coast

24 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

No I’m betting that it’s going to be a big big month for cold and especially snow. Way above average

Ok let's set the over/under at 2 feet between 2-1 & 2-28

1 minute ago, CarLover014 said:

Graphics?

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Huge torch on the Euro.

The low ends up near Staten Island

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I'm in HV a little north of Poughkeepsie. I have a question concerning above Nam maps. 1st Snow/sleet map gives me a foot, then next Kuchera map gives me 2.9 inches but I get zero accumulated freezing rain. What science goes into Kuchera map? Anybody know?

The nam is assuming everything that falls as snow or sleet is a 10:1 ratio. Kuchera is much lower due to the fact most will fall as sleet

Just now, Snow88 said:

We said the same thing in November and look.

Could easily go the other way and be mostly a rain event for the coast

2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Youll be pleasantly surprised in that case. You are good for 4-8"+ on Sat/Sun

Lol no way, maybe 2" some sleet and then rain. I think it's unavoidable at this point

I'm now expecting more snow tonight imby than Saturday night Sunday

5 minutes ago, David-LI said:

According to GFS, city should be changing over to snow around 1 PM Sunday and end by 6 PM as the storm pulls away.

The city doesn't get much of anything after 1pm. Keep in mind this is showing what falls in the prior 6 hours

2 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

 

This map is much more realistic

1 minute ago, TwcMan said:

 

wow a foot of sleet 

7 minutes ago, paweather said:

and it doesn't transfer it just heads east. This is what you want up in NYC. That is why you see the snow totals. 

Well the snow totals are high because the models are assuming anything frozen is a 10:1 ratio. Since 70% looks like sleet or freezing rain accumulations would be nowhere near what the snowmaps show

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Is there a map showing the primary in Pittsburgh?  Maybe I missed it.  

Not quite Pittsburgh but northern WV

Just now, USCG RS said:

I still believe that this ends up as more snow for the region than we think. I believe the LP does not make it up to Pittsburgh as shown verbatim, for reasons I've laid it before. Now.. We wait and see.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

50-100 miles further south is probably all it would take to keep us mostly snow

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Looks like 10 inches for the city 

Much of that is not going to be snow with 850s above freezing for a time

Fv3 is much improved as well. Low is south of LI with a lot of ice

4 minutes ago, Animal said:

Qpf is not really that impressive on the 0z nam. We will survive.

6 inches of snow or so over a sandwich of sleet & freezing rain.

 

1-1.5" still pretty high

Stays all frozen for everyone just west of the city even with the low over nj

13 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

NAM is amped. I'm just about done. 

Yeah mixes much earlier this run. Front end dump of snow would be a few inches at best

21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The odd thing though is at this range in 2007 most models showed that event being entirely snow.  So either models sucked worse then on thermals or that started more off the coast and trended more NW as we got closer in.  I don’t remember.  

I think by 72 hours out mixing was starting to show up because of the 850 low being in ohio. Even then we got far less snow than forecast as the change to sleet was fairly quickly

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nevermind. Here it is not so bad.

Pretty big drop from 12z actually

15 minutes ago, Doorman said:

https://digital.weather.gov/

go to the link and then run the loop... 

Keep calm and think for yourself!!!

Nice civil war battle going on the M/D line between snow and fr. rain

1 minute ago, friedmators said:

The NAM seems to be pretty fast.  6-8" NW of 95 by 6Z Sunday.

Yeah would be a decent front end thump before warming occurs