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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    03Z HRRR fills in much faster for Wake. Hopefully the start of a good trend
  2. PackGrad05
    KAT CAMPBELL tweeted: These are new Euro ensembles - still showing a good bet that you'll see snow but the odds of 3" decreased a bit in the western part of our viewing area. Our saving grace? The high resolution models aren't seeing the snow band in our northern counties that's been around for hours
  3. PackGrad05
    I'd take 3" guaranteed. That is in the top 15% of snowfalls at RDU over the past 50 years.
  4. PackGrad05
    the 01 and 02Z HRRR runs continue the trend of snow not really beginning in Wake until 1 - 2 PM
  5. PackGrad05
    All the professionals are saying the same thing. They are all saying there is the POSSIBILITY of a bust and a MINIMUM in central NC. But so far nobody has the guts to put 0-1" on a map.
  6. PackGrad05
    ALLAN says CONGRATS CLT this is your storm.
  7. PackGrad05
    ALLAN says the high-res models may be on to something and if it isn't snowing in Raleigh tomorrow morning, then the LOW BUST RISK is HIGH
  8. PackGrad05
    BRAD P posted 10PM update. He mentions that some of the CAMS are struggling with initiation but blossoming. He also says he was one of the first ones to mention the DRY SLOT.
  9. PackGrad05
    As someone said earlier, there are places ALREADY GETTING SNOW that are not depicted as getting snow on some of those high res snowfall accumulation maps.
  10. PackGrad05
    HRRR also showed it earlier, and hasn't corrected too much
  11. PackGrad05
    LMAO, FISHEL just made a video at 8:40 and said a model earlier scared the living daylights out of him and "killed everything" but has since corrected. I guess he didn't see the new one yet! Nobody knows
  12. PackGrad05
    00Z HRRR fills in that huge dry slot a little bit.. but still has it. It also has the precip starting mid-afternoon in Raleigh and ending a little later sunday morning
  13. PackGrad05
    Mike Maze just posted the EURO Ensembles (which they call their exclusive product) and the amounts keep trending down. You can expect an adjustment to their map either tonight or tomorrow morning and they will probably have Wake County in the 1-3" range.
  14. PackGrad05
    Wral just showed their Barron model and it is much snowier. They said it performed well with the last system. .
  15. PackGrad05
    Yep I saw that and deleted my post. Thanks for posting it!
  16. PackGrad05
    EURO only shows 63% chance of Raleigh getting 3 inches. According to the ensemble, which WRAL states is their exclusive product.
  17. PackGrad05
    3K NAM continues the dry slot trend, but fills it in slightly. 2-3" for central NC, including Wake. The snow really doesn't start falling until this time tomorrow. We spend all day waiting...waiting...waiting.
  18. PackGrad05
    But he also says that HRRR and NAM are both showing this.. and we would like to see them getting snowier, not less
  19. PackGrad05
    Both the HRRR and the Nam 3K are showing that huge snow void.
  20. PackGrad05
    HRRR is a disaster for the triangle. This is lining up with the thinking of a lot of meteorologists...
  21. PackGrad05
    WRAL updated their map.
  22. PackGrad05
    If you've followed Brad's videos and posts the past few days, then you understand his thinking. He has been very consistent with his concerns about a transition zone and intrusions of dry air in the triangle region. He backed this up with modeled water vapor imagery and other graphics.
  23. PackGrad05
    I think it's safe to say that most folks in the triangle (and especially Wake) will not see any substantial snow until lunch time or after... Which is going to have a lot of people around here saying, "Where is the snow!?" Trends show much of our snow coming from the coastal low
  24. PackGrad05
    Doesn't make sense for the 3K NAM to be that different than 12K. Yes, I know it is higher resolution, but that's way too much of a difference. So either the 3K is way too low or the 12K is way too high.
  25. PackGrad05
    NAM 3K much different. Pretty much 0 for Wake through 33.
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