PackGrad05

nothing but rain still in southern wake.

41 in Willow Springs on my Tempest. Latest HRRR looks better.

Both the NAM and HRRR want to redevelop moisture across central NC around 7-10PM

True. But looks better than last Friday's system for sure.

Seeing the classic pattern in the high-res models of mountain snow, followed by a piedmont lull, and a NE NC jackpot.

The 12Z HRRR is not much different than the 6Z when you look at total moisture and placement.... The difference with the snowfall map is due to difference in temperatures which keep most of it cold rain for the areas that are "blanked." I'm not surprised by this because the cold air is chasing the moisture and surface temps will likely be above freezing until sunset. So there could definitely be a mix or snow falling, but not sticking.

12Z EURO and EPS both increased coverage/amounts for NC for Monday's small system. GFS still leads the way with highest amounts.

The rain/snow line on the 00Z HRRR is pretty much identical to 18Z. The main difference is that it reduced totals by half in NC. At least for the triangle, this has all the makings of some initial sleet/snow falling for a short period of time (if that) and then quickly going to all cold rain.

18Z HRRR almost identical to 12Z for Wake

Agreed. I'll take it in late December/all of January.

Raleigh - November 25. I don't think we hit freezing next week during that cold snap.

After looking at all the data and the runs, even though they are inconsistent, I still feel the most likely outcome is a slow approach to the SE coast and either making it inland or staying just off-shore, but then slowing down/stallings and dumping a lot of rain... The big story is going to be the rain/flooding.

12Z Euro is slower than 00Z... Landfall roughly the same area, but it is slower by about 6 hours....

The last 20 minutes has absolutely ripped here in southern wake. We've gained an inch in just 20 minutes!!!

Finally more heavy snow near Fuquay!