The situation changes a bit after sunrise. Our region will be
contending with a combination mid level shortwave and longwave
trough. The main impact of this will be to steepen mid level
lapse rates. Should we get some breaks of sunshine, there is
more potential for generating enough low level instability to
match up with an occluding front to generate stronger
thunderstorms. At this time, thinking CAPE values max out
between 750-1000 J/kg. With effective shear about 30-40 kt,
there is a low risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly across the eastern half of southern New
England.