jbenedet

You could run circles around me about the short term stuff. I don’t do day trading. Not for me. I’m big picture. I do well short term only when I zoom way out. There was a major bottom put in, in early 2024. It’s a bull mkt now. The producers basically went no where since early 2022, following the major price decline. But nat gas is in a strengthening bull market…Thats what got me most interested. The recent cold was icingon the cake.

No idea about the specifics correlation or lag. I just know the correlation is meaningful and positive. I started looking more at the sector seeing the cold snap caused the price of nat gas to move way up but the big producers didn’t follow likewise. I then dug a little deeper and saw evidence in the long term price behavior of the major producers that people are rotating into the sector—building positions. Of the group, CVX chart looked the best to me. I also believe natural gas is in a long term uptrend. The recent cold snap was just adding fuel for a breakout.

-NAO vibes My thinking remains that this aspect will improve from here on out given the forecasted teleconnections. But. Will it be enough to outweigh the interference from the trailing shortwave. That’s the main limiting factor in my view… A few days ago I thought guidance would be in a better position at this juncture considering these factors, so I have to take ceiling way down right now outside of the cape.

The real problem is the trailing clippah which is dampening - “kicker” I don’t see any other issues. That’s the problem.

Yea I agree with this. More likely than not given the mid level proximity. i also agree this is an “advisory level something” but disappointing given the potential.

Amazing people are hating on this look. Mid level fun for 90% This is more powerful than the EC-AIFS at this lead time. Don’t get it twisted

There is a shit ton of snow around downtown Dover right now.

Awesome. So much for the Meh-teorologists

Could be better But.. I’m seeing the risk is much greater that it moves north from that depiction, given the current forecast progression of MJO and -NAO.

lol. Wrt where most of us live— PWM, BOS, NY, Philly This is about as locked and loaded as you can get at this lead time. I found zero things to criticize 5 days out. Teles, GEFS and EPS guidance are frickin awesome. And the persistence/side of things is great as well…

Definitely around 2 ft in Dover. Wintah wondahland

I’m gonna tack on 5” today?

The models flopped last minute. Had the right idea last night then lost it. Some knew

I have added at least 3” here today. And currently best growth and rates of the day…

FTL?