jbenedet

The first week of December is warming on guidance. MJO, teleconnections forecasts are all moving to warm phases. I don’t get the excitement at all. MJO phase 7 in November is actually N to cold but we are moving into December as we settle into that phase. I think this is leading to some false cold signals on guidance. Of course I’m speaking wrt where most of us live—close to the coast. The modeling showing more ridging in the SE and cold dumping over the central CONUS is much more in line with the tapestry of MJO phase 7 in December.

Not the best harbinger for winter weenies https://www.wmur.com/article/rare-bird-sighting-portsmouth-nh-11232025/69522743 “The species typically breeds in Europe and winters in tropical Africa. This is the first recorded sighting in New Hampshire.”

Day after thanksgiving —behind the front—it will be colder in Asheville NC than seacoast NH. Another case when the core of the cold dumps south and west. In other news, that’s like the 10th run in a row on the op GFS, developing a TC south of Jamaica around day 7…

That U-shape to climate change over North America should be engrained in your brain… where Bangor Maine is +4 while DFW is less than +1 over the same time frame. This of course follows the behavior of the jet. The cold has increasing propensity to dump over the central US, but warmer SST’s especially with latitude is generating more inland runners. Shortwaves are finding less suppression as they travel east. No surprises here. The observational snowfall in the northeast has also followed with significant winters in Vermont and Upstate NY and the far interiors of NH and Maine. There will be exceptions of course, but this is new key persistence to factor into your seasonal forecasts, especially when this tendency is showing itself in real time, as it is now.

Dews on the Euro are showing mid 50’s. Airmass is cooked. 60’s are game but 70 is still a reach. Will have to watch bc it’s a torch setup. Question is can we maximize based on timing and clouds.

Pretty sure there is Wednesday’s furnace to contend. Been telegraphed by guidance for a week now.

Beautiful hike out at Wagon Hill today. Pretty shocked by the amount of erosion…The sign informing about the erosion won’t make it through this winter.

I have roses, daisies, pansies and Lilly’s still budding. Lawn is still lush green. Being at a local max altitude in downtown — my thinking is —this makes for a very specific phenomenon, as the rad cold sinks down the hill to the Cocheco River adjacent and to the heart of down town below. If we can avoid good radiational conditions over the week, could be around through thanksgiving.

You look at tomorrow’s event and it just seems like the whole Jet/track is displaced 100 miles north given climo and the sig -NAO pattern. But background warmth in eastern Canada doing its thing…It doesn’t snow much in November, correct; but, this storm/evolution would be one way in which it could happen and it’s not even close in my hood. That, to me, is one key example on how marginal warming is having outsized effects.

Zzzzzzz

Another +3 high in the books.

The warmth continues.

For Logan only days BN were 2nd and yesterday. Overall very close to average for the week so far. Today and tomorrow will take it to firmly above average week.

Every day so far this week has registered +1/+2 AN. Today will be another one of those. Maybe a shot of +3. The short term operational guidance cold bias seems to subtly worsen. Tomorrow we +10.

Wind and clouds saved us from a hard freeze with duration. When I saw the clear night sky around midnight last night really thought a hard freeze was in order. The min obs for below freezing temps across the seacoast happened for an hour or less…