jbenedet

This still looks more like a late blooming miller B to me. Two maxes. One in far western sections before the transfer and the second in mid coast- down east Maine, + (maybe the cape). There will be a min in between that transfer as clipper fizzles. Think less norlun, more miller B ish type evolution.

lol “storm”. Yea go run with that to your friends. Tell them about the incoming storm. Moose fart is more like it.

There’s a late blooming miller b type distribution of qpf showing up on the ensemble guidance. That’s likely how this evolves… A local max at points west of CT river, and then points east in Maine with the weak/late redevelopment. Very weak system overall.

The EPS and GEFS are nothing like the ops. All kinds of red flags on the 6z euro with a 1007 mb low near PWM on the 6z EPS and weaker from the prior run. This is a weak low surrounded by surface highs, with no opportunity to amplify with the mid level flow compressing out of southeast Canada. Shrediola.

Seeing some rich green grass pop through the snow cover has me thinking this early season snowfall did a lot of good to help my young lawn establish further before being really stressed.

This storm just kept steadily intensifying on all guidance over time. Now seeing 969 mb, on the euro, about 200 miles north of Quebec City.

Agreed. But usually if there’s a refreeze the morning before temp/td spike you can get some resistance out of the pack. No chance if it’s been thawing for 24+ hours, as will be in this case.

Guidance was too low for the morning temps up here. Even DAW stayed comfortably above freezing all night.

Real killer to the pack is 32+ dews though and that happened before midnight and kept slowly rising all morning.

Today’s progged highs will easily be exceeded. Upper 40’s in view for many.

There’s a lot of support for that look. La Nina (Jan), the EPS and GEFS forecasts for the NAO teleconnection are also aligned for deeply negative. The op runs signaling similar. Start worrying.

It matches the teleconnection forecast. Not good.

Yea this is kinda where I’m at, especially with peak winter climo a few weeks away. NYC metro close enough to watch with keen interest…

The cutter will wipe anywhere that doesn’t fall below freezing tonight. Probably the usual line cutting through DAW and N ORH to just north of PWM…

This isn’t what we want for the bulk of New England. Seasonal cold and dry, especially in northern New England. Once this -NAO gets entrenched it could even result in N, to AN in Northern and eastern sections of New England. In a La Niña this is something we should be vigilante against as tendency into January is dry up here. The main takeaway is this will send most storm tracks south. I’d be watching intently in mid Atlantic, down to Virginia.