jbenedet

Thought this was too interesting not to post. Never would have guessed Maine and NH top the list vs points out in the pacific north west. New England pride on this one —for me anyway. https://www.islands.com/2055872/america-most-forested-state-east-coast-gem-atlantic-views/

There was no “tick-tick” north on the GEFS or EPS. Noise on the GFS op. The -NAO block is intensifying so i don’t see a surprise last minute jump north with this. 5-10” storm for NYC metro. Models have been locked.

Yea that is the way. What a tough forecast for PWM… 8” is a good forecast though, all things considered…

I’m not expecting more than 0.2” LE from this. 4-6” range here is shtoooopid.

yea my mistake. Thanks. I thought you were taking a break from here? Family time cancel?

GFS radar output is like snizzle/light snow varying intensity for 6 hours. That’s it for my hood.

Very difficult forecast for PWM. There’s going to be a very narrow area 6”+ amounts with this..

Hope ya’ll checking the progged radar output on the 12z GFS.

Too low in midcoast Maine to Portland. 6z EPS had 1” qpf. There will be a over a foot locally there. Also think this is too high over here. This map appears as more of an uncertainty cast as to where the band sets up… The band will be about 100 miles wide; go with 2” outside of that and call it a day.

Yea not talking about that. Talking about later…

The shit streak surprise in SNE tells me expect some forcing to be robbed with the part two “lead” of the clippah.

Better off taking the under 10:1 on ratios. I also don’t see how I eek out 0.25” qpf here but all the guidance showing it… On ratios - the risks are not BLtemp related but lift, weak snow growth, and scattered light precip. None of this bodes well to stack. 7:1 probably better hedge… Unless you get into the IVT this should be the story in eastern New England sans Maine and the far interior of NH.

Virga she wrote… Virga sheeeeeee wrote.

This still looks more like a late blooming miller B to me. Two maxes. One in far western sections before the transfer and the second in mid coast- down east Maine, + (maybe the cape). There will be a min in between that transfer as clipper fizzles. Think less norlun, more miller B ish type evolution.

lol “storm”. Yea go run with that to your friends. Tell them about the incoming storm. Moose fart is more like it.