jbenedet

Can’t wait for the model indigestion from this impending -NAO.

Overnight - The EC-AIFS has trended further south but also a lot more amped. the other major guidance has trended north and more amped. There’s been an improved consensus. I think it’s most telling to see the EC-AIFS amp up but that doesn’t translate to a track further north. This is important. I like the 6z EC-AIFS - its current depiction and QPF as a baseline from here.

Hmmm…

Yea that’s where I’m at.

As much as I dislike DT… Seeing a 994 low off the east coast doesn’t get ya excited but if the delta is with a 1040+ mb arctic high less than 500 miles away……. It’s a big dawg.

No. I have said I80 south is in line for the heavy snows. I’m sticking to that. Basically NYC/LI south. definitely stay very interested in southern coast, out to south coast MA

You are in a spot worth watching for something more than advisory. But odds go way down just north of you imo. Watch the mid level height field compress out of New Brunswick over time; with more of a -NAO tapestry in the east.

More ridging but stronger surface high and positive tilt. I think the trend on overnight guidance was to load up this already-explosive setup by tightening the delta between the arctic and the tropics.

The surface high is intensifying over our heads on guidance. I’d call it Canadian but it’s over our head throughout. Filling in for Quebec.. Great news for our southern neighbors who love snow

Positive trade off to eliminate the daily black ice risk. Too much of this in December and January. Cities could do more, but they don’t.

The phasing will mean you crush mid Atlantic on the east coast with mid levels but that whole long wave trough development is severely positively tilted in the east. It’s a spin up with limited latitude gain.

This looking more and more like a crusher for ACY, DC, Baltimore. There is a -NAO developing around the time this makes it to the east coast, so a slower track and more phasing are likely than currently modeled. That said I don’t think that portends a big latitude gain.

Zzzzzz 1982-1983 was a record setting EL Nino. AN in the north; very warm winter. Meanwhile Boston running -5 in a moderate La Niña….

I guess you all miss the verification scores of the EPS/GEFS vs the ops at this lead time…it’s not even close.

You need a new shtick. I was all over this storm.