jbenedet

These significant and persistent -NAO’s are very efficient at moving the Canadian airmasses south. There’s a catch here though. And that is, the deep cold doesn’t keep building in our cold source regions. It gets distributed and therefore dissipated… We’re evolving into this situation now. You look at a chunk of our cold source regions in Canada and it’s right to +AN… This will stymie the cold/snow performance of a +NAO pattern —in our region—when it first develops…

It’s not good— period —that the first pattern shake up of met winter is to land on hostile warmth for our region. If we didn’t land here at all it would portend better snow odds. Now we arrived here and need to hope for another shakeup. It’s just a game of odds…The long wave features are landing unfavorably. It also looks increasingly likely that it will stick beyond mid month. That said, the hostile period beginning around the 6th also is very unlikely to stick indefinitely. What’s most likely to me is we will settle in a gradient pattern. This has performed well in recent years from a line from just north of PWM, through DAW to N ORH. And extremely well in the far interior of NNE. Points south/east of there have been approx 50% of normal. That’s basically my expectation starting after the 15th. If this doesn’t work well for your lat/long or expectations, hope for another reshuffling in February. Still plenty of time for more shakeups….

The -PNA is fading but so is the -NAO…Not seeing anyone pointing out the latter… I don’t know why these phases have been in sych in recent years but it continues… As for the CPC forecast beyond day 10, I think the +AN risk is greatest along the east coast losing the -NAO, and with the west coast ridge axis being west of Washington state… It’s a long wave pattern where upstate NY into northern VT can do very well, snowfall wise. The whites of NH into northern Maine as well…latitudinal Gradient vibes returning to New England. This means a poor pattern for sig snowfall chances in the major metros from Philly to Portland.

I’d sell my house in a heartbeat if the current pattern was the norm around here. Trash.

Looking more and more like a week-ish of suffering through dry and significant cold to a warm up and cutters. Then we evaluate if the warmup is an interlude or a new pattern…

sure. Buts it’s crap odds at this stage. Low end advisory or a big cutter if it phases. It has the hallmarks of another big cutter.

Warm. That one is pretty well screwed. If it phases with the northern stream we’re cooked.

You could not draw up a worse pattern than this. Significant cold and no big storms. Miserable unless you’re a hermit.

Plot twist: 6th is a very big storm, but it’s another cutter that ushers in a crap pattern. Question to be answered is if the hostile pattern sticks.

“Pattern shift….” Careful what you wish for. There’s some naive optimism in seeing less mid level troughiness on the west coast but this is not without losing cold anoms in Canada. After first few days of January risk is tilted warm, even in the northeast. There’s some indications also, that the MJO makes a pass to 4/5/6 which are all warm phases for Jan. Pattern looks like trash around hr240 on the ensembles. Deluded to be getting excited for big snow from day 9ish on..

January 6th system is warm. CONUS and Canada cooked. It will want to warm sector where most of us live. You’re making a bad bet on hoping for this to turn to a big snowstorm.

The HRRR is way too cold vs all guidance, tonight. No reason to buy that with the clouds moving in after sunset and torching above the surface starting by midnight.

Freezing is a warming process. Temps will spike quickly to 32 everywhere except the valleys of NNE.

Zzzzzzz

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