jbenedet

At least the GFS lost its “congrats OBX” BS for the 16th. It’s now rightly back in line with all other major guidance. So how this will evolve is a lot clearer than earlier today…

15th/16th—That GFS run is very -NAO ish I don’t buy this evolution. Looks like a step further away from reality. The NAO forecast had another stepwise increase well into positive territory before our players are on the field..

Ugh. That’s so wound up it’s gonna interfere with the follow up wave… That one I like for the better long wave placement… But that’s another potential issue gotta watch now…

Yea these winter days are good. So important. Today’s got a great vibe 37/31

Good point. To be sure I’m thinking most commonly 43-45 readings, for the region. a solid +10 today Dews will also be rising all day so it will compound the real feel. Legit warmth on this merit as well… Gotta get outside…

Agreed on the sun. But atmosphere is cooked just above the surface.

NAM laughably too cold for surface temps today… These clouds are breaking… widespread mid 40’s easy and 50 within reach at many spots in SNE.

I’m just talking widespread warning level snow. Thats what my odds are against. …

predictions made with present data. Not making predictions based on the data changing…no evidence for that. Always the case. But looking at the large scale features and the agreement on them across important guidance at this stage…. It’s very low odds of a big snowstorm. My take.

Looking at 6z EC AIFS - I don’t like it…. The early mid level cut-off in northern stream is another red flag. You’re going to get much more shunting east with the coastal than meridional mid level ridge development can compensate for over the western Atlantic. Maybe a cape scrape? I’m focusing on the 18th…

There’s red flags with that euro run. Mid levels look juicy but beneath you can see the BZ is not at all where we want it. we’re actually between two zones, one indicating it’s taking the surface reflection well ots whereas the other well to our west and indicating warm sector/ptype issues. I’m maintaining I do not like this one at all. It’s a lot further from where it needs to be for a significant snowstorm than the 6z euro mid level depiction is reflecting.

On the 15th The GEFS evolution matches the EC-AIFS now. it’s ugly. Mostly northern stream. Not wanting to synch with southern stream… Sell a nor Easter

46/32 Great to finally get the ice off the driveway. Some 2 weeks of this…

We have not had one fun storm to track… Just hella cold. Need I mentions the other “benefits” of this crap Pattern— Heating bills up ice melt use up slips trips falls up doggy depression up boredom up

Even a ratter is better than rotten…