Chris78
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Everything posted by Chris78
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I pulled this from the PA thread but I would say the OP doesn't agree with its ensembles . Pleasantly surprised to see this.
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Hopefully it was just a blip at 6z but precip cut in half for our areas on both the GFS and Euro. That probably effects temps with not getting the evaporational cooling / wet bulbing we would get from a wall of precip moving in from the Southwest. Fingers crossed the QPF is back at 12z
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Hopefully the 6z euro is just off on a tangent. Even the weaker 6z gfs still has snow for western and Northern areas.
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Let's hope the 6z euro is just off on a tangent and incorrect. That would be a disappointing outcome for places along the M/D line. Kind of surprised after the great 00z runs last night.
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That's a thumping too. All in less than 12 hours
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I thought we would be saying congrats State College tonight lol
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Shocking developments
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Lol. Never fails with the icon. Always missing the money panels for a winter storm.
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Great Start to the 00z suite
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I think that's clearly becoming our path to victory. All southern stream. Weaker but not too weak. 8 to 10 hours of WAA thump. Hopefully a moderate 4 to 8 " storm.
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Do you have the couple of frames prior?
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Hopefully being SE helps with temps?
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Not looking good
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Looks like heights are just slightly lower over us. Maybe 20 miles or so. But that could make a big difference in sensible weather.
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GEFS dropped all of the Ohio Valley lows. Pure coastal it appears.
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Hard to trust any model evolution currently. I like the 18z better but it was am odd evolution compared to 12z. Weaker system, smaller area of precip but more QPF in a good spot for us
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Option 1 I would think is safer but with less upside. I know your moose hunting but I would gladly take a squirl , fox or anything in between. Edit: @psuhoffman can you explain why our qpf increased even with the system being weaker?
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Lala lock it in. Such a small strip though. Weird run. Weaker smaller area of precip but more intense in a good spot for us.
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Do you mind posting the 6z for comparison please
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Is the EPS out yet?
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Oh shit. Might as well look towards 1/20 and beyond.
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Is JB offering you a job?
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100 agree. Need to stop the bleeding. We're another model cycle or 2 away from being an interior storm.
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When we were getting those bigger snow totals the north movement of the storm stops and it pulled away slowly towards the east . PA and north gets a longer storm now.
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You certainly could be right. We can't afford anymore north adjustments
