Chris78
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Everything posted by Chris78
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Nam says what storm?
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On the Lwx forecast discussion they discussed better sampling later tonight as the second shortwave comes on shore on the west coast. Sounded like they expected more model agreement late tonight/ Tomorrow as the shortwaves are both over land. Kind of funny to read that. I thought that was an old weenie fable when things don't look great.
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Keep talking.............
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I would consider it encouraging but everyone has there own interpretation. That's a pretty good indicator that it's going to snow. It may not be the double digit storm that has been shown from time to time but any snow is good snow. This might be the first plowablw snow in these parts in 2 years.
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Going off of the NBM and Euro and GFS ensembles ( I think we can still use ensembles for today) west of the Fall line still has a great chance at a moderate event. Even all the way to 95 probably sees some snow. It may not be the double digit storm that we were all hoping for a few days ago but it still could be decent.
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I pulled this from the PA thread but I would say the OP doesn't agree with its ensembles . Pleasantly surprised to see this.
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Hopefully it was just a blip at 6z but precip cut in half for our areas on both the GFS and Euro. That probably effects temps with not getting the evaporational cooling / wet bulbing we would get from a wall of precip moving in from the Southwest. Fingers crossed the QPF is back at 12z
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Hopefully the 6z euro is just off on a tangent. Even the weaker 6z gfs still has snow for western and Northern areas.
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Let's hope the 6z euro is just off on a tangent and incorrect. That would be a disappointing outcome for places along the M/D line. Kind of surprised after the great 00z runs last night.
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That's a thumping too. All in less than 12 hours
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I thought we would be saying congrats State College tonight lol
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Shocking developments
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Lol. Never fails with the icon. Always missing the money panels for a winter storm.
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Great Start to the 00z suite
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I think that's clearly becoming our path to victory. All southern stream. Weaker but not too weak. 8 to 10 hours of WAA thump. Hopefully a moderate 4 to 8 " storm.
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Do you have the couple of frames prior?
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Hopefully being SE helps with temps?
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Not looking good
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Looks like heights are just slightly lower over us. Maybe 20 miles or so. But that could make a big difference in sensible weather.
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GEFS dropped all of the Ohio Valley lows. Pure coastal it appears.
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Hard to trust any model evolution currently. I like the 18z better but it was am odd evolution compared to 12z. Weaker system, smaller area of precip but more QPF in a good spot for us
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Option 1 I would think is safer but with less upside. I know your moose hunting but I would gladly take a squirl , fox or anything in between. Edit: @psuhoffman can you explain why our qpf increased even with the system being weaker?
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Lala lock it in. Such a small strip though. Weird run. Weaker smaller area of precip but more intense in a good spot for us.
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Do you mind posting the 6z for comparison please
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Is the EPS out yet?
