Chris78
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Everything posted by Chris78
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It's done this many times this winter. Heights fields are consistently lower and storms less amped than other models leading into a storm.
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Lol Certainly stubborn.
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Meh. The initial thump looks alot less solid on the icon.
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How much of that falls with round 1?
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If we want any chance at seeing accumalting snow we really need to reverse the trends and that's a nice start. Needs to sag another 50 miles or so. I'm afraid another model cycle or so and it will be a shut out for the entire forum.
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It's seems that the ukie hasn't amped up systems enough this winter, causing it to produce white not wet outcomes for our area. Especially since we've been on the southern edge. The storm back in January that along M/d line received an inch or so and then a deluge of rain , the ukie was calling for a 1' + 24 hours to go time
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Agreed. We need to juice up Sunday night as much as possible. Monday night/Tuesday heading in the wrong direction. With the normal bump north the last 24 to 48 hours I wouldn't even feel confident if I was in central pa.
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This is what I was posting about this morning. You could see the slow bleed start about 5 model cycles ago. 36 hours ago it had the cold drain all the way down into western north Carolina. Now barely south of the mason Dixon line. There's still enough time left though for an improvement but we need a reversal to start soon.
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For what it's worth the fv3 does look better than it's 00z and 06z runs
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Wow. That's nice.
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Somewhat but the depth of cold air isn't the same . I'm not a fan of snow maps but I'll use the positive snow depth change map because I think their closer to ground truth in these situations. You can see the southern edge creeping further north each run.
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I still think that we all see snow at some point between Sunday and Tuesday. The trend seems to be to weaken the high pressure/CAD somewhat over the past day of runs. Thats my biggest concern. Posted below are the GFS temps at 7am Tuesday. I will say the precip is coming in quicker than it was yesterday so it helps offsets the cad not being as strong. Also this could all reverse today and we all get a warning event. Fingers crossed.
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I hear you . I just don't like the trends.
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That's very true lol. On many occasions this winter I've seen the fv3 on its on only to come back to reality.
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I like your enthusiasm. It just makes me nervous when the Euro doesn't like it much and we are about 4 days out.
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Not sure when it's suppose to become the operational but imho it appears to be struggling. It's seems prone to wild swings.
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Lol. Well atleast we still have the ukie on our side.
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What did the ukie show last night? I didn't see it posted so I thought it must of not been good lol
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Not really. I know it scores decent but at the surface It's had a rough winter. Atleast where it counts. Lol
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Fv3 06z looks awful. Mostly rain for Monday/Tuesday. Losing the fv3 is concerning because it's always snow happy. Both the Euro and fv3 give our area very little frozen. Bad trends overnight unfortunately. Hopefully we see a reversal today.
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Wow! That's quite the bump for western and northern areas.
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I count 6 separate snow/mix events on the GFS over the next 16 days. Good times.
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Oh please do share....lol
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Sounds similar to the gfs?
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Do you have the snow mean for the area? Better than 00z?
