J Paul Gordon

High of 36 Low 33. A raw November day here.

Where is the "torch" people were talking about? And what constitutes a "torch" in November. Last year it got up into the mid 70's here more than once. I can understand that being called a torch. But is a 60F day in November a torch or just a sort of normal warm November day?

70-75 for most of SNE on T day. Higher in the CT Valley, a little lower in the higher elevations of the Worcester Hills. Real possibility of some 80 + readings. Mid 60's to low 70s for Christmas. No significant snow before Jan 15 if we are lucky. Got up to 64 here today.

Any likelihood that we'll see the mid seventies we had last November? I remember hiking on a nice trail on Wattaquodock Hill on a day that felt like early September.

I'm working on positive negativity this year. When someone says it will be AN, I'm going for historically (and hysterically) AN. This way we can confuse the weather demons into giving us just the opposite. On occasion, I'll get serious and listen to the real mets--who actually know what they are talking about.

Upper 80s in the Connecticut Valley on T day. Near 80 right up to the Canadian border. No need for further discussion. We are doomed.

Dews remained in low fifties here througout this ordeal so it never actually felt hot.

I would absolutely believe them and add 5 degrees to it.

Hit 77 here. Glad to see it go. I'm sure November will have a slew of 25 degrees AN days, too. Feels nice and wrong at the same time--like snow in May.

When will the Torchvember thread be up?

These the forecast temps here tomorrow? Hit 75 here today. Just about that warm on the Maine coast when we left Wells at 2:30. Temp dropped from 80 in Bolton to 74 here at Ridgefield just five miles west.

I'm going with the idea that if I say it will be a much above normal winter with almost no significant snowfall it will end up being cold and snowy. There is a psychobabbel term for this. So, for the record, its going to be a well AN winter with very little snow. Temps near 70 on Christmas Day and no snow until after January 15th.

Have a feeling it will be. I'm usually wrong, though.

Since the first week's heat wave ended, high temps here have averaged in the mid-sixties, which is hardly extreme. Lows have averaged in the mid-fifties, which is quite a bit above average for this time of year. Altogether, it's been quite pleasant. It seems like GW has hit hardest with the low temps. Our highs are generally about the same as always, sometimes even a bit lower. That works for me. I'd take an average high of 30 in January and a low of 20. It would give us the same average as now but with more snow retention. At any rate, whining about the weather is useless since it never seems cathartic for those who have a habit of doing it.

We have a place in Wells. No frost in the long-range until the very end of the month. Huge difference between being a mile from the water and 10 miles inland in Sanford.

Got down to 40 here on 9/27, 9/28. We're about eleven miles southeast of Fitchburg Municipal Airport.

Looks like a warm first week and then pretty close to normal afterward. Might call it "Torchtober" if the whole month looked exceedingly AN, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Perhaps "Mildtober" would be better?

Thanks for the reply and the explanation. I well remember 77-78 and who could forget 014-15?

How do 2001-02 and 2011-12 work for analogs for the upcoming winter? Serious question, not weenie whining. I'm wondering about the ENSO/El Nino factor. Since I'm not a Met, I don't have the facts at my fingertips. With the big warm-up coming next week and long-range forecasts for AN fall and winter, I'm curious as to HOW much warmer than average. Is it even possible to make a good guess on that? Thanks for any serious responses.

Make that through December. AN, I mean. Mid 50's in mid-December this Nino year.

Any thoughts on the actual storm?

80/70 here in Clinton/Lancaster. My (not up to NOAA standard) thermometer says a high of 96 today, low of 70.

I remember lots of September heatwaves when I was in school. Miserable in corduroys and long sleeve shirts. Absolutely no AC back then (We're talking 60's and early 70's) and that was back in the day when school started after Labor Day. It'll start to cool down at the end of September. Always does. Just like it warms up at the end of March. September has always been a summerish month in my memories just like March is almost always winterish. Plenty of exceptions, but September is never wintry and March is never summery. I'm speaking of the months as a whole, not the historical highs/lows.

Winter of 1995-96? Good analog? Winter 2016-2017? Good analog? Winter 2002-2003? Outlier?

We've gotten over a foot, but it is really packed down. It holds at about 8 inches no matter what gets added—32F steady light snow. The flakes are tiny now, and it feels colder than earlier in the day when the temperature was the same.