bwt3650

Snow level about 400' in NJ. Crazy seeing rain on the cam at Jay and snow here. though only a dusting. Above 1000' in NW Jersey by ski resort has 6-12.

quite the CNN headline...if ever there was a stay safe... Deadly bomb cyclone fuels powerful atmospheric river on the West Coast and another storm is coming

GFS goes to town on the upslope many have said has been consistently missing over the last few years. Some decent liquid in a few of those as depicted.

Nice upslope burst Sunday as this pulls away. Maybe we put down the start of the pack at elevation. .

Jay planning on spinning the Jet on Saturday for passholders, and free skiing for anyone who bought the 4 pack of tix for $279. Not bad getting a path down to 1800'. Also changing up the opening day this year with adding a blue to opening day off the top of stateside. I'm going to assume they are betting hard on being able to blast away from Sunday on.

The snowmaking updates throughout the early part of the season that you and jay do are the best. Gives an idea of what the next week or two will look like terrain wise if you know the mountains patterns. .

That gfs run showing the end of the dry period, seasonal cool and multiple chances could certainly unite us. Is that the -nao doing its thing? .

Yeah, I still think American is the most brilliant, shining beacon of a country the earth has ever seen and an election result doesn’t change that. But sure. .

It takes one dumb comment to stir the nest…the most successful people surround themselves with people of different opinions, but who share them in a respectful way….it’ll all be deleted in the morning and we can get back to never ending warmth and stein vs. pattern change. .

Tip, I’ve voted for both parties. You’re brilliant in the field of weather, but condescending at times. And implying that 74 million people are not of cutting edge intellect, isn’t trying to find common ground on some issues, it’s dividing and condescending…period. I’m not taking a political side; rather I’m pointing out that I saw a lot of dismissing of anyone’s views that didn’t share the same agenda recently and that rubbed me wrong, and I think many other people, which led to a somewhat shocking result. Doesn’t mean I rubber stamp every view from each party. Doesn’t mean I don’t belief the climate is changing if that’s where you’re going…But in life, I’ve found that listening and understanding why people have a view goes a lot further than a ridiculous belief that everyone who voted a certain way is just plain stupid. I don’t pretend to have anywhere near the knowledge you do in weather; and I enjoy learning from you…but I can assure you, I’m not a dumbass. .

Without taking a side, your condescending thoughts and those who speak the same, are a giant reason why the election turned out the way it did. On to weather! .

persistence forecasting...you're a genius til you're not.

are you aboard tip's pattern change/reshuffle train going into thanksgiving week?

As long as I can shovel fake snow, and watch the snow guns pile it up in fake cold, it can be as imaginary as it wants. .

Your rise from the ashes of a former weenie when this winter over performs is going to be fun to watch.

I saw a Dew of 21 at 1800' with temp of 32 at the jay base a few hours ago and figured it was dry all the way up....100 percent wrong. Good to hear...put something down at the base tonight that can last and hit a nice window Thanksgiving week and you guys will be good for opening. I would never sleep if I could watch a snow making system at home.

No winter..new normal. .

Fake is an overrated term…still can freeze pipes and feel cold as balls. Blasting out the snow at those temps..dry too, so wet bulbs in the low teens up there? .

They are actually opening tmrw to season passholders. They open on the north ridge; probably rime and reason with the peak walkway, though they are blowing great northern, so maybe only a one way walk this year. Superstar will stay closed until after the world cup (unless something changed from previous years) and then it usually takes them a week after to chop it up from the icy world cup surface. They don't go ttb for a bit, then usually move to snowdon.

That would be great timing to start some actual winter weather...now, can you give us the "what could go wrong" for that time period?

Coating down to 1800’ at jay. Looks like good snow making temps all across vt and nh by noon. .

Base is 1500 right? That extra 500 feet probably helps jay and killington plus you guys open with 2000 verts. What would get you there? A 72 hour window with wet bulbs in the teens? .

As warm as it’s been, are you guys really behind at all? Seems jay is right about where they normally would be for a thanksgiving open and def some favorable temps mid week again. Killington is late, but besides them, it really doesn’t look like anyone will have issues with opening by normal dates, or within a week. .

There have been quite a few runs with something...though 3 feet is probably asking a little too much. Temps look like they are coming back to earth a bit and storms starting to pop, so something positive in a month of shit so far. At the very least, there's legit snowmaking windows.

There's a difference between a met saying it doesn't look favorable going into December and things like "this year will be a repeat of last year" "I wonder if we don't get a frost til Xmas" "this is the new normal" "30 degrees isn't a freeze" "NNE used to always be white in early October" etc. Just like there has to be pushback against the wish casting for snow, I give Wolfie credit for pushing back against some of the dumb shit, funny as it may be sometimes.