bwt3650

I don't remember once last year where warm periods didn't grow stronger from a week or two out and great patterns didn't disappear as we got closer. We got cold for a week in late November that Ginx called perfectly from a couple weeks out, but that seemed like the only cold period that stuck. Betting warm over achieving was always a wining bet last year. This month has been different and was a reality check for those 384 torch map posters (a couple who have been missing for a while now). I fully expect mild periods and to be called out when its 60 and raining in mid December, but NE isn't the new Mid Atlantic either.

Yes..frigid start .

Nice winter vibe there.

The torch train is slowly unloading this morning. Maybe winter is tbd and not cancelled yet?

Agreed..If November plays out as currently modeled, I think we would all take the ratio of BN days to AN days all winter long and roll the dice with precip. Expecting or calling for wall to wall cold is just as ridiculous as thinking every month is a “torch.” Fall has been great so far..Warm October days and step down to cold right on schedule for Nov. .

Snow to jersey on the gfs…pick your horse. .

Man, that GFS run is loaded for NNE. That would get winter started nicely.

It looks like a great start to the season..cold right when you want it for the build outs…what are your thoughts on the fantasy storm post thanksgiving? .

They pushed opening day to weds 11/22. .

You said Nov was a torch…you were wrong. What are you seeing that says Dec is a torch? .

Where does the month stand so far? .

Diarrhea Halloween candy, thanksgiving turkey in shorts and December mows. .

Agreed…but after what happened in Oct and the Oct calls for a Nov furnace by some, a possible BN month and an actual winter feel is a welcome change. .

Nov torch down to 24 hrs on gfs? .

Everyone is on tonight, even down to the Poconos, which probably won’t open until December. .

how long did snowmaking make it last night before wetbulbs shut them down?

yeah, no denying it means nothing. Some years though, it just seems it wants to snow and things break our way, while others, great patterns turn to shit no matter what..like last dec

it means crap scientifically, but this year has a different feeling than last year to me so far. The plus 15 anomalies 15 days away aren't locked in and grow stronger as the days go by. Rain and 50 at 384 was the safest bet there was last year.

it's like you spoke and the GFS listened. That warm up really disappears quickly in the 12z op run. Hope ensembles have the same trend.

Vermont resorts lit up like a Christmas tree this morning with snowmaking. Looks like a nice window through early next week before the heat. .

3k lighting up the central greens with a decent thump before the changeover. Gotta assume most of the clown map is something other than snow, but should look wintery. .

Loving snow and belonging to a weather forum, but always calling for warmth and an end to winter is a defense mechanism so as to never be disappointed. .

All because of frozen water or lack thereof. .

Never a good idea to pick an argument with a weather genius...but here goes: Average temp mean for BOS Jan- 30 Feb-31.8 March-38.3 Years within 1 degree of average or below avg for the month during the last 10 years: Jan-5 Feb-4 Mar-6 So my argument would be that half of that decade period featured average or below average temps and average or above normal snowfall. I don't think you get those numbers with a decade that has only two weeks of winter per year. Maybe snow cover days during the last decade would paint a better picture. It does seem that we used to have longer periods of snow on the ground. I just think that saying we've only had two weeks of winter each year over the past decade is him always leaning warm and negative toward winter.

over the last decade, 6 of the 10 winters at BOS have had normal or above normal snowfall, including the all time record within that time period. I would agree with you about a two week period last year, but your decade long assessment is not accurate. I think you should raise your expectations to at least average this year.