jjwxman
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Everything posted by jjwxman
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Here we go! RAH is on board. 6+" for the Triad is a good starting point right now. Should see some WS Watches coming within 12-24 hours.
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Stokes County 2-4 and Surry County gets 12-24. Now that would be one crazy cut off!
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Geez... The FV3 looks AWESOME. But the 12z NAM definitely took the air out of the room. #NAM'd
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Who blames RAH for being too conservative now? Even if the 12z NAM was a crap run, and the 18z comes in super cold, this is why Nick P and the Raleigh forecasting team is waiting to pull the trigger. Good job guys.
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My thoughts this morning: To much focus on snow maps, not enough focus on who is going to be with out power for 2 weeks because of an inch of ice accrual.
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This is a very complex storm system and many players are involved as we all know. When there are uncertainties involved, RAH always errs heavily on the conservative side of caution. With that said, I think that if the models hold through 12z today or 00z Friday you will see them change there wording to a more serious tone. RAH does a great job, they will jump on board soon.
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Safe to say RAH is on a different planet. I don’t understand. Regardless of p-type, liquid equivalents could range from three-quarters of an inch NE to around an inch SW. And this:
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They favored the GFS on the 3am discussion. Lol.
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850's are better though than the 6z at this point.
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I'm 15 miles south of Greensboro, I have already prepared myself for a sleet fest. Just like in the January 2017 storm. In Randleman we had 4-5" of snow/sleet. In Pleasant Garden, 10 miles to my north they had 10-11" of all snow. Preparing myself for a similar outcome.
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The last thing we want is the high to scoot eastward to quickly, so this is good.
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That is just insane, I don't know if I've ever seen an Ensemble Mean like that anywhere in NC. Be careful up there.
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Per the 6z NAM the wet bulb temps were generally in the low to mid 20's across a big portion of NC, with low 20's in the North and West Piedmont and Foothills, upper teens in the far NW Mountains.
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Not sure how accurate this output is from coolwx.com, but if no sleet were to mix in, in GSO like this image depicts below, this could be the outcome. But I'm pretty sure sleet will be factor in GSO.
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18z GFS: You know where TT has rain, weathernerds.org is mixed, especially the I-85 corridor.
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Can someone post the 12z Euro QPF Final ? Thanks.
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FWIW, the 12z GEFS snowfall mean went down from the 06z.
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It doesn't get more textbook than that. What a Beaut!
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This is incredible, just the shear amount of QPF makes the Wintry part of this storm system very unique for this area.
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Weathernerds.org has a better snowfall map than TT IMO. It still hammers the NW Piedmont, Foothills, and Mountains. Some 30-36" totals in the mountains. Crazy. The Triad areas transition to rain but not before 1.75 if QPF as all snow falls. Damage done.
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One thing to keep in mind is with the saturated ground and many trees that have been weakened by Michael and Florence, and many still have foliage, then you add heavy wet snow or ice, we are going to have a lot of power outages from falling trees.
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At hour 150 there's a good 6-8" along and north of the I-40 corridor from GSO to HKY.
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Like this? 12z NAM:
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I agree 100%. The dewpoint on the NAM at 84 is 10-20 degrees cooler than the GFS. Now we all know the NAM past 48 hours can be a crap shoot, but these numbers are probably not all that off.
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The HRRR also nailed the warm nose in that Jan 2017 system.
