dailylurker

The fokes on long Island don't like the trend. I do!

And tracking if we can hit 80 in Dec lol. I honestly think this is just the beginning of something really interesting happening. Blocks are fun. They do fun stuff without a lot of lead time. I have a feeling this is going to evolve into a coastal storm.

We're all going over the cliff together?

If the gfs is correct we could be having snow and ice while Kansas City is pushing 80. Blocking does such cool stuff. I hope it's real!

Still looks better than that 70 did yesterday lol

The gfs looks better today. There's some decent cold shots. The euro on the other hand lol. Are those +50 degree departures in the Midwest for the next 10 days at least? What an impressive heatwave. Someone at our latitude is definitely going to see 70's if not 80's lol. F-it. I'm moving on and planning some extended hikes in the local mountains.

I'm not canceling winter but I'm coming to terms that it's definitely over for the next couple of weeks, at least. Losing weeks of prime climo is definitely a bummer.

Is this year 3 of drought? Before this dry period it was wet for a few years but that didn't help snow totals lol

The big story were all missing is the drought. The local creeks are drying up. The Potomac is super low. The lowest I've ever seen it. We just can't buy a storm or rainy day. Cold and dry to warm and dry. The next 10 days looks warm and dry. Basically the opposite of last January (cold/dry).

Yeah. I definitely showed my age. I'm off to the mall to buy my mom a new house phone for her landline lol

Snooze fest in here. Everyone must be Christmas shopping lol

I bet it's ripping up on the ridge tops. Camp David gusted to 61 earlier. Nothing going on in the lowlands yet. Just muddy and lame lol

Things tend to be like that when everyone here loves winter and the models are basically saying "welcome to spring 2026. Hopefully you enjoyed your three day winter this season."

I'm planning a trip to the Tug Hill towards the end of January. They lost most if their snow last night after a great few weeks. They closed the trails until further notice. Not good. I was hoping to deep snowpack. I see a bunch of rainers on the gfs over the next 10 days.

Another snoozer event. If it's going to be fall for the foreseeable future I hope we can at least get some fun storms or maybe a rainy day. Endless 45-55 degree weather and dry is as boring as it gets.

I don't like the wall of summer just to our sw lol

Crickets after that gfs run lol

I was hiking in the Catoctins on Tuesday. I noticed a lot of this. I was at Cunningham Falls. Down at the Falls between two ridges was like 28 degrees with powdery snow. I hiked up to about 1600 feet from 1200 feet. Once I hit about 1500 feet suddenly it's warm, probably 36, and theres water funning down the rocks below the snow. As im hiking back down suddenly, within 10 feet the temp went back below freezing and it was silent. You could literally look up towards the top and see dropping from trees. The mountains are so cool when it comes to this stuff. I love it. Super fascinating.

That was an impressive block. I remember Bob Chill, PSU, and CAPE called that pattern about 10 days out. The pattern happened perfectly. Then I remember the first model runs that showed the storm. The GFS dropped the first bomb. The others followed. That was about a week out. That was the cleanest tracking event I can ever remember. Models just kept showing that huge hit over and over until it hit. I received 20" here.

I'm saying we can luck into that type of setup any random winter. It's like we have a bucket of climo stuff. That includes the biggest snows ever to hit the area. It also has the warmest day ever reported. It all in the bucket. Any given winter we randomly get tossed stuff from the bucket. I don't know. This cookie is kicking my ass today lol

I'm becoming more convinced over the years that snow around here is completely random luck that can happen any winter. 2016 was a warm turd except for the week prior to the storm and another short period of cold around valentines day.

I wonder who will win lol Looks at that wall of heat moving in.

I drove out to Cunningham Falls this morning for a day of hiking at higher elevation. It wanted to extend the deep winter period one more day by headed out there. It was an interesting drive out there. The snow distribution from here to there was super spotty. As soon as I got on 97 north from Crofton the snow really thinned out. It didn't increase again until I got up on 70 and got into higher elevation. Once I got into the Frederick valley it got super thin and spotty again. As soon as I gained elevation going up into the mountains it increased again. Their was about 4" of powdery snow up at the fall. The falls are at like 1200'. It was 27 at that elevation. I hiked up to 1500' and suddenly it was above freezing up there. It was colder in the low spots between ridges. The falls were completely frozen.

I want to try and get one more deep winter day in before the bottom falls out. It's going to be 38-40 here in the lowlands with mud and melting snow. My idea is to go out to the Catoctins and hike at higher elevation. The thing is. I know it can be warmer at higher elevation when warm is moving in. Does anyone know the forecast temps up on top of the Catoctins for today?