NCSNOW
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Everything posted by NCSNOW
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They from the same family of programers
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Ill cash out with 18 on that euro clown map and call it a day
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Been consistent at flipping the 850 0 line back inland.
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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread
NCSNOW replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Saw his Blizzard warning prediction. Also benchmark in Boone per rays is 30 (1993). I was in the "whee" for that one and NWs had officially a Blizzard warning out. Something that saturday afternoon seeing 40mph+ wind while heavy snow falling. Also think ray said snowiest December on record for Boone was like 27 inches (2010). So if Boone had what 3 earlier this week and nets about 16-20 this weekend. Look out another record is in reach. -
Those are 44dbz over my house on that frame. Thats whiteout, 3-4 inch per hour rate.
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You runing the soundings off pti or smith reynolds airport. I love all your post as your close by to me ,burns,packfan and a few others. Saves us alot if legwork
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ILMROSS Good points. Also how the models got egg faced in the crusher. If you read the write up from NWS all the occlusion etc that happened off the coast as storm bombed out. It was a good write up on how they missed it, a what went wrong model world kinda of deal.
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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread
NCSNOW replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
This season is turning into 2009-2010 . Gonna be wore out from tracking so much this season. Have yall stopped and thought its only 1st week of Dec and look how much has Already happened up there. -
This new model doesnt disapoint. Well spent tax money. When congress designated/budgeted mental health money,they had the SE snow weenie on their minds.
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Look at heading of the wave more east ots as oppossed to NE trying to turn,bend. Wasnt their an oldtimer rule a wave enetering west coast always exited same longitude east coast most times. Beleive this one came in San Diego/ LA area
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Best or safe way for areas to luck up on the fringes is to root for the early thump. You can see column cool from top down at the beging as precip breaks out on most model runs if you watch real close. See 850/0 line push south.So if you can saturate and get a good burst , itll sustain itself and delay the changeover. If you get a virga storm then the opportunity will be lost and its straight to ice when things rev up and heat up above with SE winds, warm nose. So you want deny the warmnose but if you can delay it a few hours, then all want be lost and maybe at the end get a quick burst of an inch to whiten things back up.
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If the nam verefies, ill have several inches of snow packed with an inch of sleet, with another 1 to 2 inches snow on top. Yard will be like concrete.
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It goes out to 72 hrs, so becoming usefull now and need to monitor here on in. Laptop at work and aggetating looping stuff on phone.
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Yes. Fact state line east down 74 corridor into sandhills, then fluctuates up n down between there and south of hwy 64 by a good bit. Hard to watch models on a phone, atleast for us old folks.
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RGEM through 72 keeps 850 below freezing whole time for triad. For what its worth
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Comical and on que. Tell you what I may not care if its ever right , but the fv3 is my favorite model now. Ive never been plastered with clown Maps so good in my life. The kicker is , it hasnt been alone. My area may not get 20 +, but I doubt Ill ever expierence another week of digital snow to rival these past 5+ days.
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I want buy the Old GFS or Nam with regards to anything unless I see support from Euro suite and or Ukie. Rule of thumb. For the record when i see Can and that new FV3 siding with Ukie and Euro, eps. I know which way to swing
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ASK YOURSELVES THIS QUESTION: If the deck was flipped and the Nam was showing what all the Globals and ensembles where showing currently. Meaning they all where putting out end result of just ice/rain mainly because of out of sync HP/LP configuration, but the Nam was painting 12-20 inches in a large area. Would you be discarding the Nam and going with consensus?
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Allans map matches up well with my thinking for the Triad region. Im in B and miss A by about 10-15 miles max. But he's spot on. This will be the biggest event since atleast February 28,2004 in Randolph county when we experienced 17-19 inches of snow and January 2000 the crusher witch had most of the county in 13-18 inches of snow.
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So you think Greensboro only gets 1 to 2 inches. Interesting
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Think it has hp screwed up because it has the ns sampled poorly. Want know for 24 more hrs
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Nam is also restricted in its raob spectrum where as globals arent handicapped as much. So this ns energy is not being seen well by nam at the moment and we can see how misplacing it will affect end result
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Been saying this since 6z nam and repeated it 12z nam. Nam has center of hp in wisconsin and retrogrades it west as lp approaches. Cant get cold funneled down cad areas properly cause of its location. Think it is having long range hiccup with this feature and causing its outputs at hr 84
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Forecast 6-10 for the Triad with mixing and that should give plenty of flexibility. Northern foothills/mtns 10-16.
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Getting ready to see the Nam 84 hr GEE Club catch some egg in the face lol!
