40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Its because the dynamics are pedestrian. Noise at this range.
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I guess when I hear "hot and heavy" it implies a better trend....which is what threw me off. Yes, timing is consistent for a decent storm.
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Ok....but the mechanics this run looks like a 10" over 30 hour type deal.
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I think 06z was better....looks disjointed at H5.
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Was about to say it looks sloppy at hr 150...
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Congrats, Wilmington.
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Looks like an arrow directing the snow towards the Dawn Awakening
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Its easy on the eyes, but I don't buy that completely....prob a bit too far north and def. a bit overdone on QPF.
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GFS gives me 6" lol
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Yes. ORH is better on east flow, too because its a chain of hills....you really need an extended ridge line to maximize upslope.
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I would take the GFS lol
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He lies lol
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Ball busting aside, I have always valued your OBS as much as anyone....top tier. I think you're pretty meticulous and objective, but I can see why those you haven't been around as long would suspect otherwise lol
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That was also back in my WOTY days lol
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Doesn't have that "always in the right spot" ambiance, either...great spot, but ORH does better in upslope bc its a chain of hills. Much better SWFE climo, too.
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He's probably been writing it ever since.
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Honestly, Dec 1992 is when I really noticed it....I remember thinking, "wow, if ORH already has 12", then Springfield must have like 20"!.....further NW is always more snow. But that storm is when I started to understand the topographical nuances and just how magical that spot is.
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Look back through history....always just far enough in one direction....very seldom do they miss out on the lion's share of snowfall. I honestly take that into consideration when making snowfall maps.
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One thing that you can take to the bank is that ORH will be just far enough NE to catch that OMEGA.
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Shades of 2010 lol
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Hopefully I can get into kind of a sweet spot, where I can get the dying lift from the initial surge to the west, then catch the INVT snows...
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GEFS looked excellent...hair inside BM. EPS was okay, but I would like to see that come NW a bit....well outside of the BM. SE trend. GEPS were pretty bad...se of EPS.
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I'm fine with it....for obvious reasons, I am done gambling on precip and suppression, and am ready to take my chances otherwise.
