40/70 Benchmark

Agree.

Its okay to be frustrated with the fact that cutter after cutter keeps wrapping up west of us, but then the one system that looks timed right to provide significant snow gets sheared out. Its not a snow map thing...its just a "that sucks soggy ass" thing. Just like last December, when we couldn't buy a phase, then the Grinch phases like a Mo-fo when it would have been a light snowfall, otherwise.

Finally ordered a Stratus rain gage and it arrived yesterday....gonna put it into action for the new year.

It didn't look to me like there much that could be done at that point.

When the only post is on an inverted snow shower in NNE, you can guess.

I understand the frustration, but the winter solstice is not deep winter...its near the onset of the season.

Exactly. There are going to be periods like that this winter....that much has always been clear. I just didn't expect quite so much of that in December.

No pun intended, of course...

I get that it doesn't make much of a difference in terms of sensible weather over the next couple of weeks...it still sucks. But in the longer term this is a very important distinction from years like 2011 and 2019. There is a light at the end of the tunnel because there is a great deal of cold in Canada, its just all dumping out west right now. Once that RNA relaxes, it will get cold. November is also a testament to that difference...November 2011 was a complete torch....it was very seasonable this year, if not even a little chilly. In 2011, the cold was confined to AK.

Agreed.

Yea, I that is what scooter was getting at by saying that it was hostile beyond two weeks....you won't just flip it on like a switch...it will be gradual.

Trolling is funny from time to time...we all do it. But nearly every single one of your posts is inflammatory.

Yes. I mean, its nothing malicious or egregious....just not something you'd expect from a professional in the field acting as a moderator.

I stopped venturing over there years ago for a reason.

I can't believe on of the biggest trolls on the board is a moderator....man, what is this place coming to lol

Must be a BS algorithm.

The weeklies are not hostile beyond two weeks.

The safest call right now is probably a general 1-3".

At least the timing is such that we should be able to look ahead to the change during the holiday GTG.

That, to me, is an artifact of the modeling being ambivalent in relation to whether or not to commit more N stream energy...I mean, theoretically it could be real, but it will probably either evolve into a real event or fade away.

I would prefer it not be there, I don't care where it ends up. Those are the kiss of death for a nice event.

Yea, I hate that.

That's the plan...

The longer range still looks fine to me from xmas week and onward....the middle third of the month has looked poorly for a while now.

Maybe I miss December...seasonal forecasting is hard enough, but nailing every month is even harder. I missed February last year, but still did well overall. It's just so early to be grading anything... just let it all play out.