40/70 Benchmark

I mean, we'll see....its one day's trend, but that makes more sense to me.

It was off of its rocker staying like trash well into January.

Yep. Window starts opening after that SWFE wannabe.

Yea, that is a page right out of the 2007-2008 playbook with a better airmass....but the primary originally making it to MI won't cut it with that airmass in SNE. No margin for error...even as we approach peak climo.

Gonna need latitude with that.

Yea, the solution is in flux....northeast may be best....for once.

I like the location over Ohio at hr 180, but the problem is how it gets there....it drives up into Michigan first, before getting deflected ESE.

Lots of confluence....yet another big low that tries to run west (shocking, I know) and is met with resistance...but probably not enough for SNE.

Been nearly a year since I have seen one of those.

Funny seeing the little weenie schlongs right through Kev and Ginx lol

To each their own...I mean, I will certainly take it over 90 and humid....but I just don't care to freeze after being blue balled by mother nature all of last March and now this December. I mean...I have had one warning event (Feb 25) since the blizzard that bent me over last January. Sorry, but that just isn't worth it...give me warmth.

My perspective on weather is that "if you aren't going to entertain me, then stay the fu*& out of my way"...IOW, no inconveniences or discomfort.

Yea, not me....nothing worse than cold and boring afoot parched and barren earth.

I hope so....if the pattern sucks for snow with no pack to preserve, then it may as well be nice. Holidays are gone, so no need to feel festive.

I don't disagree, but that is a ton of work. Interested to see if we score a biggie in the 1/6 to 1/20 timeframe that I identified back in early November.....

Paul, if you recall, 2020-2021 actually featured a mean DM +PNA and even last season was decidedly +PNA after the record RNA December. I know you are referencing more than the PNA here, but just pointing that out. I get what you are saying regarding the emboldened and have wondered that myself. Its probably the difference between my area ending up with like 45" or 65" of snowfall. I don't see an abysmal season as being in the cards.

It was both one of my five primary seasonal analogs, and primary ENSO analogs....its a good way to illustrate how things could go right from here on out.

I don't think there this is one person implying that everything is awesome....the upside at this point is a normal to slightly above season....with a narrow pathway to significantly more.

I'm usually not huge on the "la nina is dying, so that will help late" train, but that seemed to be a factor in 1956...it could actually play a role this season. Regardless of any SSW, I do expect a nice March (yea, I know the sun will melt it and it sucks that December didn't deliver for the holidays and low sun angle). -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.7 -1.5 1956 -1.1 -0.8

I think the Pacific will look better than that this January.

I doubt it...

Here is how January 1956 evolved... Look familiar? It should...

This season compares fairly favorably to December 1955:

Well, I am going to finish the month of December with 2" of snow. Since 1950, there have been 6 other cold ENSO seasons in which my locale received 3" or less of snowfall during the month of December. 1955-1956: 2" with a seasonal total of 87.3" 1973-1974: 1.8" with a seasonal total of 44.8" 1988-1989: 2.6" with a seasonal total of 20.3" 1998-1999: 1" with a seasonal total of 41.9" 1999-2000: T with a seasonal total of 33.3" 2021-2022: 2" with a seasonal total of 42.5" This bolsters confidence in my seasonal forecast range of 60-70" because while the mean seasonal snowfall is only 45", it would be wise to hedge upwards given how the month of December actually evolved. Note the utter lack of high latitude blocking in the composite: