40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I already mentioned that in a blog last fall....this is likely to evolve into a modoki el nino next year.

Yea, it's just increases the chances of a favorable outcome...but as we saw in December, there are no guarantees.

Yea, and potential insurance against a strong el nino next year.

No.

I don't really care, at this point. It's too late for any changes to matter, anyway.

It certainly will be in the DM mean...there are also extratropical influences independent of ENSO. "Its not black and white" was a very accurate statement.

It's all subjective...impact with respect to ENSO and temps. All we know is that the globe is warming and to a degree said warming is likely anthropogenic in nature.

Nope..none, which is my point.

Interesting that we have a marginally moderate la nina so exotically well coupled with the atmosphere, despite CC seemingly rendering ENSO all but irrelevant. I feel like in a day and age where every warm anomaly gets attributed, it's only fair to consider that point, as well.

Down to 13.3.

Don't look at the EURO lol

Yea, decent consistency from 18z...nice dump. May need to blog if it's there late in the weekend.

You know winter blows when there is 3 pages of Caribou snowmobile track talk.

It's not going to be like '82 or '97...we just had one of those 7 years ago.

I still feel like a favorable el nino will evolve.

Yes...typo

It was kind of a warmer version of January 2021 in that sense...no excessive warmth, but just incessantly above average.

Tough to wrap your mind around just how insane the positive temp anomaly was for January.

Agree.

Raindance was far and away the best outlook IMO...but even he got lucky on December...had a +AO/NAO.

Right. Technically, I had a mild winter forecasted...but not this. January was nuts.

IMO, getting the seasonal teleconnections correct is akin to "showing the work" in math class...you get that wrong while seemingly capturing the overall tenor of the winter, then you were at least as lucky as skilled...and yes, I hold myself to that standard.

There are plenty of people that will flaunt verification of a mild winter, or "ratter", but none of them for the right reason. No one predicted this flawlessly.

January was a shit show... +NAO, West-biased PNA and strong PAC jet just acting to pin the entirety of the hemispheric reservoir of cold over in Siberia and pin a trough on the west coast. Good example of how index values can be misleading. Yes, PNA was positive, but being centered off of west coast rendered it basically an RNA. Yea, AO was negative, but without any poleward Aleutian ridging to tap Siberia, all it did was pool the cold over there. Northern tier of the US probably would have been better off with a +AO.

-NAO didn't hook up with the SE ridge. The PV got stuck underneath the NAO block and got pinned in western Canada, which forced all of the energy west. He was right about it being warm in January, sure.