40/70 Benchmark

I do.

Interesting....never thought of that, but it makes sense. The timing of the PNA flexes is what I really struggled with this season, aside from the SSW no-show. I still managed to get the general idea for the most part, but def. room for improvement.

I think we'll probably see some snow yet....

I hit 1 degree this AM.

This season desperately needs a major interior job that is not entirely elevation dependent.

Right...but I think I speak for both of use when I don't consider a 2-4" front ender before some sleet and rain a win, at this stage. You hope for more, but I feel like those are the more likely path to climo this month.

Could def be the type of month that doesn't appease anyone....even the @Torch Tigerand @snowman21's of the world. The weenies don't get snow or notable cold, and those guys don't get appreciable warmth. Class spring month in New England....everyone is in the same boat, anchor in hand ready to plunge over board.

I agree.

I could see that.

Well, all I can do is comment on the data in front of me....I was also quick to point out that my PV split idea, in the legitimate sense, was a bust. If you recall, March also looked a like a complete torch two weeks ago....its been very unstable.

That's the thing...as Scott correctly pointed out, the PV recovers very rapidly after that fraudulent split, but it remains stretched out onto out side of the globe, as it has a lot of this season. It doesn't have the look of a toasty month.

He'll go out of his way to talk about it more if you post that you don't like it....its like a 4 year old sticking his tongue out at you....only its a big one without hair.

All seasons have warmed, but its winter night's that have warmed the most.

Yea, I was on auto-pilot in season check-out mode literally writing that it should be done by mid March, and then I actually looked at the EPS image from 3/15 that I had posted, and said "shit"....then rewrote the paragraph. Honest truth-

That is one thing Methuen has no problem jackpotting in....heat waves. Merrimack valley is often ground zero for those....from like KBED right up through KASH to KMHT.

Hopefully the heat waves develop tits.

Same. I think next season has a lot going for it right out of the gate.

Phil, what are you confused about? Not used to seeing those from anyone but Kev lol

It has the look of like a climo snowfall finish, but the other idea I have is an interior bowling ball at some point.

Yea, its not the March 2012 type of torch pattern where you can definitively declare that its over, but its also not a pants tent look and it very well could be over.

That is precisely my fear.

Someone should get to work on Putin a bullet onto Vladimir's head.

Same, but still scary.

You guys think this will go nuclear?

March, while not 2012, is mainly fool's gold. Implications of Potential Stratospheric Warming in March It appears as though the European guidance will indeed prove correct with respect to the increased vulnerability of the polar vortex during the month of March, as there is currently agreement between both both the GFS and European suites that a split will occur. Upon a perfunctory examination, it would appear as though the Eastern Mass Weather forecast of a polar vortex split to occur by February 11 was simply a few weeks too late. However, this particular event is induced largely via tropospheric wave breaking, and is this not the product of a SSW. Thus this portion of the Eastern Mass Weather winter outlook will in fact be be wrong, and instead any impacts from this event via cold air outbreaks will be fleeting, as the vortex rapidly recovers the second week of the month. What this does mean is that the month of March is unlikely to be as severe as originally predicted last fall, as noted by the explicitly stated warm risks in the event that the SSW event did not occur. What this does NOT mean is that the month will be absolutely devoid of wintry weather. As evidenced by the month of February, the Pacific will play a role, as well as the overall shape and character of the polar vortex. Note in the image above that while it has indeed recovered and is no longer bifurcated, it is not extremely consolidated and is in fact elongated in the direction of the northeast US. This should allow for a cold source to be at least near by, which should provide winter precipitation throughout at least northern New England, and opportunities points further south. The Pacific will be fairly conducive to cold intrusions through the first week of the month, however, it is unlikely to remain as favorable throughout the duration of the month as February did. There is support for troughing to develop and encompass much of the western US during the second week of the month, perhaps somewhat like the month of December, which certainly implies that warmer risks in the absence of the originally forecast high latitude blocking will prove more viable than during the month of February. However, there will be periods with cold lurking nearby at least though mid month. Thus although the season is unlikely to go out as the lion it was advertised to last fall, there are also some signs that it may not exactly go out as a lamb, either. The month will like finish near average to slightly above average.