40/70 Benchmark

The incorrect ones, absolutely. Don't confuse what I am saying....using analog seasons doesn't mean you have to be right. At the end of the day, regardless of whether you provide a list of seasons or don't, the return rate on accurate forecasts is relatively low.

Well, let me know when you make a concerted effort to apply them. I understand if you do not want to disclose a list of analog seasons per se, but anyone claiming to compose a seasonal forecast without analyzing the past to at least some degree is full of shit.

I love when it gets dark early around the holidays. Hopefully this gets hung up. Would also means models will always be an hour later, which would suck.

Depends how they are used....if you expect any given analog year to be a virtual carbon copy of the forecast season, then they are all pretty likely to fail. ....however, if you are just looking to glean a better idea of what may or may not happen in a given season, then they are very useful. I used some seasons that were pretty snowy, and others that were not snowy at all and very specific reasons were given why.

My early money on a weak to perhaps moderate el nino....perhaps modified version of 1976-1977, 2002-2003, or 1986-1987. While my snowfall forecasts have been decent overall, they have definitely been somewhat "hit or miss"....but my ENSO calls have been pretty lethal.

It would go along way towards regional regression to get an interior bowling ball with like a 2/1/21 gradient to end this season, but count me out of betting on it to actually take place.

90% chance its over.

+ 1/2" 42" Not sure why the table says 42.25"....its 42".

Very strong forecast overall....always take the under on snowfall from a storm attached to a cold front. The drier air is usually in when the cold arrives. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../stormy... Final Grade: A

I am going to dig into assigning el nino events dating back to 1950s this summer, like I did la nina last year.

The structure is not as important with weak events.....there is more variation, but I would still rather west. 1976-1977 was actually very east based....

Only ended up with .37" QPF....what a bust of a system. I knew QPF was overplayed...never trust a cold frontal storm.

Good, my 2-4" did verify there.

1/2" here Only a trace down at the bday I was at in Malden

Modest el nino.

Yikes, even I busted for his spot.

Yea, I wasn't implying that you did...just using your ob as validation. I never even saw a flake here. Expected like a coating to an inch...over it. Onto baseball, tropics and winter 2022-2023.

Kev, how much?

3-7" was my range there. Nice recovery for me from the Wednesday debacle.

Had you at 1-3"

It's tough to ever lose taking the under on an event tied to a cold front in any way, shape or form.

Right, but I could see that as the upside here.

+4.5" Wednesday 41.5" for the season.

Yea, that looks reasonable.