40/70 Benchmark

I actually meant during this past SH winter, which would be June through August.

1996 is perhaps the strongest December analog IMO....it was a second year cool ENSO. The sequence concept is just an add-on IMO...its not a deal breaker if you think an analog has value. Do you have any peer reviewed research linking SH cooling to NH warming, or is that your cursory postulation? It does make sense....the earth loves to balance, and that is the very essence of ENSO, which is why its so self-destructive.

Is this data set above years in which there was a major SH eruption? What about the one below? Are these just seasons that you personally feel are good analogs?

Man, snowman needs to move south lol

This works right in with basin wide/modoki nina climo, which is for the most wintery part of the season to be in December before going to crap later.

Paul, I don't see a velocity potential option on this like the other one.....I hate that, as I use it to show ENSO forcing. I guess OLR would be the closest proxy to that of the available option with this tool.... @CoastalWxis OLR pretty much akin to .2101 sigma VP?

Did the SH have a very strong, and constricted PV this past winter?

I'm sure that was next on @snowman19's list of tweets to quote. For real, though....I am seeing a real theme for negative NAO on the seasonal guidance, especially early on. Last season, the seasonals all had +NAO, which worked out.

Yea, like I said...its not going to be strong. I'll eat that guy's shorts if it does. You guys have a shot this year...don't listen to the doom and gloom.

I just said its a warm pattern...it was already faced. I already admitted that 62DP was not coc K.

Even that is close RE whether or not it would have been a big deal where I am...it probably would have, but its almost too far east.

The fact that you had to qualify it like that tells you that its not, in fact, "summer" stuff....its a warm, pleasant pattern in early fall.

As for the QBO....its relevance is still the subject of much debate and their are countless examples, such as last season, when the PV evolves in a manner opposite of what one would assume based on the overall character of the QBO. I mean, we have had like 9/10 of the past winter seasons average a +NAO....I know there were more easterly QBO seasons than that. And as for la nina supporting a +AO/NAO, that relationship becomes much more nebular when the event remains fairly weak, as it should this season for reasons already stated. What we are then left with is ACE, which is still in progress, and Atlantic SSTs, which at this time are not at all conducive to a negative NAO. How much of that is a "chicken or the egg" dynamic is still up for debate.

I would be careful about including PDO and IOD and that grouping, as well....I have already established that the PNA is relatively stochastic in nature and parts ways with the PDO fairly frequently. I think it increases the likelihood of such an occurrence when the the negative PDO is ascending, as it should be this season. As for the IOD, I have already explained why its not as coupled with la nina than it would have if the event had developed early in the summer, as opposed to lingering from the past two years. This is at least in part why it is playing out as I have said it would, with la nina stagnating and even eroding somewhat, as opposed to flourishing this fall. I think a situation like this is where the bias of certain posters is on full display because while assertions may not be without merit on the surface, there is a reluctance to dig any deeper because the simple conclusion happens to suite said bias.

Well aside from maybe the fall of 2009, there are always factors that are, at least ostensibly, against a cold and/or snowy winter every year, and given that we have already established that this year doesn't have the ceiling of 2009....sounds about right.

Yea, more of a risk of la nina were stronger.

I wonder why these images self-destructed? I hate that....

I'm going to sound like a broken record this fall, but this isn't going to be a climo-rip-and-read la nina winter. I am pretty confident of that. The atmosphere is getting out ahead of the ocean.

Not to that degree.....9 consecutive days of RECORD highs? They wouldn't be records

He was on the some obscure radio station this AM on my way into work...I was so giddy... I was like "STEIN"!!!!!. I wanted to call in for an autograph. The legend grows like his wisdom and he has no idea...

You gotta wonder if we glean anything from this epic western heat ridge with respect to winter. I am of the opinion that its not meaningless.

I know, but if you read the bio, it says Britain. He probably relocated for work, which is something most Mets need to do.

@ Giacomo Masato on Twitter.. he's a met from Britain. It's his in house model.

Hmmm...

What it is trying to convey is the presence of a strong PAC jet because you have lower heights up by AK, owed to a very falt Aleutian ridge that is probably a function of a very intense la nina. Not happening.