40/70 Benchmark

I think the most significant change would be that we would be more likely to see some periods of poleward Aleutian ridging, but unless it were strong, the data doesn't show that it is a huge deal. As far as intensity....sure, a moderate peak is definitely plausible because its never really strayed far below that threshold, but again....I don't feel its a big deal unless it got closer to the strong threshold, which I do not expect. I think basin wide could also alter the timing in that it would increase the odds of a favorable mid season stretch, and place less emphasis early on in the season, but that is kind of minute detail for this range.

Maybe this is Brian's Redzone run...

At least the discourse over my posting habits doesn't detract from the quality of the threads as much as the discussion of actual weather phenomena apparently does.

You don't have the Payperview GFS+ package?

I think he interpreted that as me doubting his measurement, but I was actually referring to some of the smaller numbers that should have been higher due to settling over time and wind displacement, etc.

The art of trolling devolves then the troll tries too hard to elicit a reaction...it gets pretty transparent. You need to hone your passive aggressive skills.

I am not talking about you specifically....but in a storm of that magnitude, the duration, wind and circumstances such as the example Steve spoke of, can make it more difficult to obtain accurate measurements. And this speaks nothing of the disparity in measuring techniques over time.

So leave, and then you don't need sift.

Only today...what data do you have supporting this? Anyway, this is actually the time of year when I begin to come back as fall nears.

I think there is still room for this to become more of a basin wide event, but I don't see it becoming a decidedly eastern biased deal like last year. I don't think its a big deal whether its modoki or basin wide given that it will remain fairly weak.

I'll defer to you on that since you lived it and I didn't. I also think a lot of the records from a storm like that are crap and not very accurate, as Steve alluded to.

Have at it...no one would care because you would be the only hapless soul doing it and your posts would get scrolled.

I don't think it would have been 28-30", @STILL N OF PIKE......if we are saying 23" (don't have the climo data in front of me, it was probably like 26-27"...normal rate of compaction is about 1"/10' snowfall. Granted the wind was strong, which would augment compaction, but the rates were not super intense lake effect level like the March 2018 deal was IMBY. I was more like consistent 1"/hr over a 24 hour stretch with like a 10: ratio......its the low water content fluff like I saw in March 2018 that compacts more.

This is true. SNE.

Yea, I was going to add that caveat......I will be delving into that much more beginning next week and through to the release of the outlook in November. Certainly can change...

I think Jan 05 on the cape and Feb 78 from the s shore into N RI are about as it bad as a storm will ever get in this region for snow/wind combo. Feb 13' in CT and Dec '92 in the Berkshires for snowfall specifically.

That is a fair point....but it wasn't like a top 5er for me in terms of snowfall....maybe at the time it was.

I had 25", but it was relatively tame...22" max depth.

From what I can gather, amounts were in the low 20s...maybe the wind was epic, but the snowfall totals were not.

'78 and '05 were nothing epic in my area.....'97 and '13 were. March 5, 2001 is actually probably the highest impact for MBY.

I remember that season was a would be el nino that never quite got going, but it sure as hell evolved like one.

Yea, it was awful...Jerry is right we had an event late in the game, but that doesn't salvage it for me.

Exactly.

Just looking through my modoki la nina composite and its not as bad as one would think...save for 2011-2012, the seasons are only awful if la nina goes off of the rails and is in beast mode. Just as we see with respect to el nino, weaker events have more variability and are not as polarized by structure. I do not think this year will be awful....not great, not bad.

I had no issue with the Feb 2013 blizzard...would have like to have been in the CT death band, but one of my better blizzards.