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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    In his defense, there was so much other weather worth tracking in 2022, right? lol
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I will add is that some forecasters get too carried away with the QBO....its just one factor, and a relatively poorly understood one at that. So, while I def. consider the QBO, I don't think its necessarily a deal breaker.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    You've done much better than my area the past several years...you even beat him in '20-'21.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    So thankful the downpours held off until after my commute.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I generally agree, but it can be tough to predict SSW....I have a list of them on my laptop. I will take a look at the list when I get a chance and try to see how many occurred with a W QBO....I know there were some. I think early 2009 was one, off the top of my head... Its ironic that there is a circle of UK forecasters promulgating that idea, since the UK seasonal guidance is the most hostile of all for east coast winter prospects
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Between the atmosphere transitioning out of cold ENSO, and the eruption, I think some these preconceived notions about the ensuing winter will be really challenged.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    What are the main impacts for us from greater concentrations of sea ice? Potentially better source region?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    The decadal oscillations aren't very difficult to predict...however, the devil is in the details concerning the behavior of their more stochastic cousins.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    PDO will be negative this winter...bigger question is PNA.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'll take a look when I have more down time, but I know the UK is doing that again. UK, whether seasonal or mid range, seems to have this tendency to gravitate towards the extreme ends of the guidance spectrum, which is why we call it "crazy uncle"...
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is a great point, and why I feel as though some circles place too much emphasis on SST patterns. The reality is that its usually a combination. I do think this does evince some sort of shift taking place, which was not the case last season. MEI is finally beginning to rise precipitously, which isn't a shock because it basically had to. MEI.v2: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory I would expect that general trend to continue.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, probably somewhere in between.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's just confirming that this season had a high starting point, which we already know...its not necessarily predictive, as he also said. This is why the statistical guidance is also a bit more aggressive than the dynamical. But 1.5 weekly reading would get the ONI to about solid moderate. I think that is the ceiling.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    N Foster, RI seems to be about identical with Wilmington, MA snowfall, climo wise...just an anecdotal observation....
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is rooting for a 2000-2001 redux more than I am lol. Its a fair analog....main issues are QBO and la nina maybe a touch stronger, buts its not bad.....its actually very good match to location of the anomalies within ENSO, like 2010 was last season. The French seasonal guidance for winter that I posted, which was a pants tent, was a spitting image of 2000-2001 with respect to la nina. 1975 is the best analog in terms of QBO, but la nina def. won't be that strong...still has some value, though.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember that one....I was recovering from my drunken escapades the night before...drove home to Wilmington from the hotel near KBOS, crashed again and woke up to an inch or two of slush transitioning to rain...kicked off a great winter.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not a bad thing to have a consolidated PV to start....we want that source region very chilled. The key is to eventually perturb it.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Would it happen to do with the ex#@##ion of the @adl#y C#@l?
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, it sucks here, too.....it goes wild with la nina....that's why that monster Aleutian ridge is so flat.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Picked up .02" here.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    ..Of course, December is pending, and given that December 2006 was one of the worst in history, I think that will ultimately tip the scales.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the first calendar year that could even potentially challenge 2022 for how boring it has been is 2006. Although, I would have to give the edge to 2022 because the former had the Feb snowstorm, and the epic May floods. This year had the blizzard that was only severe across the se third of the region, and a drought. Both had lame tropical seasons... I give the excitement edge to 2006.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    99-00 is a decent analog, only issue is I think la nina will be weaker.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Didn't seem as though you were privy.
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