40/70 Benchmark

Oh, I remember that...I had like 1' in Wilmington. That was a CJ band they got in Boxford.

What was that, a C/NNE deal?

1993-1994 was one of those seasons where I was either not close enough, or too close to the coast....lots of CJs and ORH county deals. But yea...the consistent cold preserved my 3" of glaciated slush, 5" of fluff oscillation.

That seems reasonable to me.

Yesterday and today were great....nice fall preview. Got some unexpected rain early this AM; I had taken the gauge in...will have to go by the station in Haverhill.

The 1993-1994 and 2013-2014 winters were similar to me in the sense that they were relatively disappointing for my specific locale. Snowfall was only like 20% above average at most, which is below what much of the other region had and there wasn't any large, defining event....overrated in my view. Its not a jackpot fetish thing, either because 2004-2005, 2014-2015 and 1995-1996 were all top notch in my book and I still lost to the south shore in every one of them. That said, I'd kill for 75" at this point....

Who is DW?

We will get a very healthy modoki el nino next year that will finally shake things up.

No surprise it looks like that considering we have been in like an 8 year la nina. We aren't dodging the warming, but we have been dodging the snow decrease...at least regionally speaking. I wouldn't count the shaft in my area.

I agree. My money is on tropical devastation.

I couldn't care less what happens in the desert SW....a UFO could land and alter the weather there and I wouldn't consider it.

If it were not for the blizzard, this would be challenging for the most boring weather year of my life...still may.

For me, its all about where you are relative to average...but I get it...sucks to have virtual shut outs within your climatological grasp. Not the case here. I think you guys will have a shot at a decent period this December.

I get it....I have been well below average every season since 2017-2018, while many spots around me have done well.

You got it.

One of Shweoegler's (RIP) fabled "backlashes"...

BTW, the government agencies/powers that be desperately need to stop generalizing ENSO events because as we have seen this summer, it not only wreaks havoc with winter forecasts, but tropical predictions, as well. You can not expect to make skillful seasonal forecasts without accurately portraying the nuances of ENSO. Modoki ENSO events have drastically different outcomes from the canonical counterparts during the cold and warm seasons....this relatively meager tropical season was predictable.

Yes, I agree with both of these points.....I could totally a see a meekly positive NAO and a more basin wide la nina ultimately. A basin wide la nina is definitely more of a -NAO risk....I will hash all of this out next week in a blogpost.

Epstein must be climaxing several times daily during this. @Growingwisdom in his pants

I guess Scooter didn't know lol

Its only one piece to the puzzle....you guys will have a good winter shortly.

Its not going to become east based, but I think there is still a chance that la nina grows more basin wide....there is a lot of warmer subsurface anomalies west, and cooler anomalies east and at some point those anomalies are going to surface as part of the incipient stages of an ensuing modoki el nino.

While my postulated rising solar/+NAO correlation is largely theoretical and admittedly dubious, the moral of the story is that the combination of rising solar and modoki la nina doesn't scream "-NAO" to me.

...And guess which are the only two modoki la nina seasons on this list? They are emboldened.

Good question and TBH I'm not sure, but my stance on the solar stuff if that its so cutting-edge and such frontier science that your guesstimate is as good as mine. However, what I do feel more confident in is that Modoki la nina are positively correlated to both flatter Aleutian ridge and +NAO. There are 8 modoki la nina events of various intensities in my composite of all seasons dating back to 1950, and of those 8 seasons, 2000-2001 is the only one that averaged a DM -NAO in the mean...and it took a supernova SSW and resultant month of March to accomplish said feat. In addition to 2000-2001, 2008-2009 is another viable and potentially favorable type of outcome, which also featured a DM +NAO in the mean....so that isn't a death knell for us like it is further south.