40/70 Benchmark

Count the CFS in on the early start to winter-NAO train...EURO, French, JMA and CFS.

I can't wait until he settles into his cold/snow routine....then we just have the ambiguously warm trio of Forky, torch tiger and snowman19 to contend with....but at least the latter is 5PPD limited.

I should start writing my own AFDs...that way I can use the preferred verbiage and expect the weather that I want to expect. We psychosis....

These days, with a dash of subsidence and a violent pinch of frustration.

Do you take your COC k with coffee?

Kev must live on the far west end of Tolland.

I am having issues with that site all of a sudden. When I try to subtract 1951-2010 period, its defaulting to 1991-2020...

.24".

If anything, a bit on an active signal along the east coast...

Low ACE/cold ENSO, since 1950....not bad:

I wanted to pull the trigger on Westford, but can't do it for the very reason Tip just brought up. Will probably end up in N Tewks or East Dracut....

Well, now we know what NOT to say...

74.5/69.3 IMBY

Ha.....this is why I will only move so far west, working in Chelsea....its an unmitigated disaster. Route 2? That probably blows, too.... Just shooting south down I 93S is somewhat manageable.

Memes are so much fun.

That is a pretty prevalent theme. I agree RE your stance on seasonal guidance; while the overall track record warrants a healthy dose of skepticism, they are tools from which you can elicit salient clues.

Yes, same thing with SAI...people initially over react and treat it as the holy grail, and then once we realize that it doesn't operate in a vacuum like everything else, we summarily disregard it. The over reliance on technology has rendered us so impulsive that we are essentially human versions of the UKMET....incapable of objective assessment that is unfettered by emotion so that we sway from one extreme to the other when casting judgement.

Oh, they are hit or miss in terms of parlaying into a winter onslaught for a given area, agreed...the location and precisely how they manifest is crucial and the devil is in the details, but the question was just related to occurrence. And as illustrated by the Feb '89 example, many of them don't do very much for winter enthusiasts. I think there was another one in early 2020 that was pretty useless, too....they sometimes just act to stagnate and subsequently enhance whatever MJO state you are in at the time of occurrence, and if it sucks, then you're done. This happened in that miserable 2020 season.

Look at Feb '89...roaring strong modiki la nina and sky high solar, yet we saw a PV split. You just never know...all we can do is play the odds.

Very appropriate for this tropical season.

I think it was fairly low, given 2009-2010 was a min, but I think Jan 2013 was pretty high solar.....QBO was flipping westerly. Decent analog, too....March 2000 had one, as well.

That is the one I saved....sweet.

We give it until the weekend.

The orange one is a contendah...I will wait for the weekend to take a vested interest.