40/70 Benchmark

The month as a whole?

Gotta be kidding....I just smashed a mosquito in my house.

.19" today

Who is LL?

I think it will be a decent pattern, but it won't be perfect....some areas may struggle in December.

For me, writing these always poses an inherent risk of relapse, sprinkled with a moderate chance of divorce and unemployment.

Beer.

Officially writing this year's installment now that all of the past verification stats are up to date....goal is to issue at the end of next week, in time for winter weather awareness week.

Helpful link if you guys want MJO composites depending on time of year: MJO Tables - MeteoNetwork Finding analogs: MJO (jma.go.jp)

Agree on somewhere in between, which admittedly isn't saying much.

I never bought into the cold fall idea.

What a couple of nasty guys...any hopes of attracting Marny Stainer to the board are likely gone.

Similar to 2021 with the big February in the east...

No, the PNA took over and we rocked into early Feb.

Something tells me you'd love to live south of New England in that instance.

Agree.

We got lucky in that there was an absolutely exquisite handoff from the neg NAO to the +PNA....it def. didn't have to end up that good, and probably wouldn't the majority of the time if we were to run it again. Point being, its a decent analog, but I don't expect 95".

There are also variations of that....the really good la nina events, like 2010-2011, which is a decent analog, remained favorable through most of January.

LOL Wearing a Dave Epstein mask

Beer

We've come a long way from the regional Stein-sword fights of this past summer.

That, and I also think that the current SSTs belie the fact that the atmosphere is beginning to part ways with what is a very stagnant cold ENSO event.....its almost akin to how winds transfer to the surface more readily in an intensifying tropical system, as opposed to weakening or even steady-state systems. The mechanisms that foster the development of ENSO are what also fuel the associated IOD response and couple with the atmosphere. In a season like this one, while we still have a well coupled event on paper, much of that is residual and more a reflection of what had been...kind of like SSTs being shaped by a previous H5 pattern. I think a lot of this la nina right now is merely an atmospheric imprint of the previous couple of years. At least this is how I perceived the research that I conducted on the relationship between ENSO and the IOD. This goes along with what John is saying, although I think his attribution is probably more geared towards CC than mine.

US. I think there there is value in both because concurrent sensible weather analogs can't capture the MJO cycle. A bunch of H5 plots are great, and the hemispheric pattern obviously shouldn't be neglected, but what is actually happening is kind of a big deal as well. within the context of seasonal forecasting. This is one change I have made this season...I feel like just viewing H5 charts can cause one to miss the forest through the trees when forecasting.

I'm not sure there is ever going to be another scenario where will you will assuredly attribute ENSO as the primary causation lol, and that is the god's honest truth. That said, I agree this particular ENSO event is growing less relevant by the week....anyway, my cool ENSO concurrent analogs are just intended to capture what is and is going to happen, so I'm not too concerned about causation in that respect.

There are for temp and precip anomalies.