40/70 Benchmark

TBH, I'd assume not have a huge PNA ridge coupled with the block...I'd rather not see BWI challenge my seasonal total.

No one said big PNA ridge, but its at least neutralizing.....big diff from what we have had and more reminiscent of some of our most fruitful patterns.

The synoptic apex of said pattern appears to be the second week of the month and snowfall climo does not decline markedly for SNE until beyond mid month. Not sure the relevance.

I don't think the atmosphere in March gives a rat's ass, though. MJO never hit phase 8 all season. This month it will and at break neck amplitude, mind you....at the same time, la nina is fading.

BTW, this is why some folks responded to me with confused emoji's and cross-eyed looks when I said that January averaged a +PNA....it did, but it was useless because the ridge was off of the west coast, but its still calculated to a +PNA because a John said, the domain space is immense.

Yea, I read it....great thread. I love that you highlighted the difference between the numerical (fraudulent) PNA we had in January, and the synoptic one that looks to become established this month, which actually....you know...pops a ridge in the west. If there were ever a smoking gun for betting against seasonal persistence, that single factor empties the chamber in my mind.

I don't view this as a cutter pattern. While I would never advise anyone to venture to view the world through Geroge's bifocals, I would recommend one approach this period with a mind wide open to some exotic potential.

Lots of seasonal scar tissue is evident....just need to allow the injuries to heal.

I never view the UK.

I'm out of work right now to help with the baby...will be back to normal mid week, next week.

I'm not sure why he can't grasp that...you would think he could wrap his mind around that with two kids of his own.

I haven't really looked yet, aside from social media orgies.

Who cares what OP runs have at that range. If this system couldn't cut, I have a hard time believing mid month storms would be able to pull it off. If you are snowing tonight, then I would expect some major snow moving forward.

I would lose it lol

Westborough? Should be closer to high end of that.

I wouldn't be shocked...staying conservative here is course of least regret, though.

Yep. Wife soar from C section, so I'm doing the baby most nights.

I am....I need to see stronger support for Miller B CCB. It makes sense...just hedging against it.

Yea...fake as Kev's new toupee

I got down to 26.6

Zzzzzzzzzz

936, too.

Final Call for Friday Night-Saturday Winter Storm No Major Changes The forecast philosophy from First Call issued early on Tuesday AM remains largely unchanged, as anticipated trends in guidance given the stated rationale have largely materialized. Synoptic Layout: A vigorous piece of energy is currently ejecting out of the southwestern quadrant of the region and beginning its journey northeast. The system is then forced to redevelop along the coast by the blocking pattern over the north atlantic. However, given that there is there is currently a significant WAR in place due to the fact that the MJO is currently in phase 7, the primary should make it far enough north to cause major precipitation type issues across the southern half of the region. Phase 7 of the MJO favors a strong WAR, which lends additional credence to the fact the GFS is in error in this respect. Favored Storm Evolution: Snowfall break out across southwestern New England early Friday evening. 10pm Friday And then quickly mix with and change to sleet by around midnight, as a warm south westerly push at about the 700mb level in the mid layers of the atmosphere infiltrates the area due to the fact that the parent mid level low will make it so far to the north into Ohio. 1AM Saturday Snow will then likely mix with and perhaps change to sleet to at leas the Mass pike by dawn on Saturday. 7AM Saturday With snow perhaps at least mixing with sleet at times later in the morning and towards mid day all the way to route 2 and perhaps the NH/VT borders, as the secondary low moves eastward and passes by to the south of Long Island. But accumulations will not be limited as greatly as they will to the south. 10AM Saturday: The low will pass close enough by to induce and easterly onshore flow near the coast. Thus a coastal front is likely to establish itself in the general vicinity of the 128/495 belt to the NW of Boston Saturday morning. This will separate a more marginal boundary layer due to an onshore flow, which will slow accumulations somewhat to the southeast, from slightly colder air inland where there is less marine influence. The mid level warm intrusion should cease by afternoon, as the mid level low redevelops near Boston This may cause precipitation to turn back to snow, however, additional accumulations should be limited since the mid level low does not appear as though it will redevelop fast enough or far enough to the south to impact the areas with the developing cold conveyor belt. This should remain to the north and east of the area. FINAL CALL: FIRST CALL: Issued Tuesday 2/28 at 545AM

Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/final-call-for-friday-night-saturday.html