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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Again, doesn't mean rug won't yet get pulled, but I'm just hedging against that.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It had that one huge 00z run, then immediately began to fade the following 12z. That is fact...I know because I wrote about it after that 00z suite, and it immediately started to slip....sure, the signal didn't just disappear, but it was fading all along after that brief apex. I don't see that here.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Saturday never had the ensemble consistency that this has had over the past 30 hours or so. It was relatively fleeting. Doesn't mean it has to work out, but it does mean it has a better shot than Saturday did.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    OP runs have zero utility right now....but yes, its possible.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    If I were in se MA, then I'd probably kick the can to December.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    @ORH_wxmanIs there something up with the Cornell climo site? Been having some troubles with it lately...its usually my go-to.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Won't start this weekend, either.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the one IMO....been clear Saturday was a corpse for a while now. That said, I do expect precip type issues for some..probably do some sort of an updated write up tomorrow.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't mean for Saturday.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    12z EPS today was most impressive yet IMO...intensified signal.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. @Sey-Mour Snowfair enough...we will see soon enough.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think the Saturday signal persisted to this degree for a full 24 hours...I remember I blogged about it early that AM, and it had faded by 12z that day. But fine....we clearly disagree.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe rushed? At some point, MJO phase 8 at that amplitude will impart a change, fleeting as it maybe.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe the N stream phase messes up, and we lack cold....possible. But there should be a big storm.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    K...I'm tired, I need to drop the mic.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree....ZERO consensus.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you guys recall, I was all over the system last Saturday decaying on approach, even while the models were dumping copious QPF several days out. I said watch the QPF haircuts...its why I never went over 10", anywhere even in first call, despite 1-2' clowns. This isn't the same thing....that said, that doesn't mean no precip type issues.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    The seasonal tendency to weaken on approach was due to RNA/NAO block shearing.....there is somewhat of a PNA ridge here. I don't think this signal weakens.....Sey-Mour Signal
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think people are traumatized by all of the seasonal can kicking. I highly doubt this signal fades...I think the larger issue will be precip type.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    JD... I get that appeal of Saturday being closer, and God knows we are all sick of playing soccer with the can...but if there is an issue with a threat, which there is here (confluence), then the closer range works against you. Limiting factors next week are more correctable than they are with respect to Saturday. That said, obviously it's easier for me to say up here.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's been locked on that look since 12z yestersay.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    European ensembles and OP have been focused on next week for 24 hours.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    That run sucks, but we have continuity on a major storm NEXT WEEK.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    N Stream interacted later.
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