40/70 Benchmark

Thursday Storm Threat by the Wayside as Expected Potentially One More Storm Threat to Close the Month Some Light Nuisance Snows Possible Thursday Across Outer Cape & Islands On Friday Eastern Mass Weather asserted why there was unlikely to be major winter storm impacting the region on Thursday. Similarities were noted between the modeled pattern over the western CONUS and other instances throughout the season that have greatly inhibited the ability of the streams to sufficiently phase and for energy to turn the corner and come up the coast. The most prominent comparison was made between the forecast position of the PNA ridge next week (now tomorrow) in the above image to that which preceded the major storm threat of January 11th. The placement of this ridge has been a consistent feature in the seasonal mean, which may at least partially explain the relative absence of major snowfalls across the region despite the relative cold temperatures. Short term guidance with respect to the near miss tomorrow is no different. The nuance pointed out in the large scale pattern is why a blizzard is not on the table, but the small vortex over southeastern Canada is why a portion of the area is not going to be able to muster a moderate snowstorm. As it stands, the outer cape and islands may muster as much as 1-3" of snow tomorrow, but the balance of the region will one relegated to flurries. Then the weekend finally begins to warm up before we await the next potential storm threat to close the month of February. One Final Threat to Close Out an Active Month of February There is telconnector support for a storm system represented by increased modularity within the polar domain (transition across NAO and AO) in the vicinity of the turn of the month. This is also evident on all three major ensemble camps, but what is apparent is that all three ensemble suites have the position of the western ridge right near the coast, which is where it has been for the vast majority of the season. Thus in the interim, any deterministic solutions implying major coastal cyclogenesis are likely to be in error, as they have been all season. Coastal development will likely be moderate with any major development likely to be either further down the coast, or in this instance more likely on the coast or just inland.

Some preliminary thoughts on next week...nothing new. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/thursday-storm-threat-by-wayside-as.html

Agree...not frigid, either.....warm up close to climo or just above makes sense.

This supports his point more, but these use a smaller sample size, so I would defer to the JMA version when there is conflict.

This is from the JMA site, which is derived from a larger sample size of data..kind of neutral:

Yea, I expect 2/28 to be a mess, but probably with a worse antecedent airmass to this past weekend.

It already happened early last week, and it has kept the northeast very cold....the effect doesn't last forever.

Yea, you exacted big time revenge on SNE in that one....I got like an inch of sand.

Yea, he his a titty twister by trade...no doubt. Just saying, prior to that one I suspected....

I remember I came in into this forum right after the 3' run for NYC and opined that it would be captured later and trend NE....it wasn't recieved well.

I know Chris probably disagrees, but I instinctively feel as thought the earth will find a means by which to restablish balance and equilibrium....its proven remarkably resilient in that respect. But again....this isn't me resistanting because I love winter....this is me resisting because I need more time to distinguish between onimpresent natural variability and whole scale CC induced changes. If we are still mired in this regime in another decade, I'll be entirely on tream Chris.

This entire winter has been like the end of a 8th grade date.

The early 2030's isn't an arbitrarily chosen point, either....I chose that point because it should represent a crucial point of inflection for our climate given the fact that the Pacific should have switched to the warm phase and we should be near solar min. If this regime sticks thorugh that, then something is up.

When he slipped he was Birving, but then he stammered to his feet as @Torch Tiger.

You could see it coming a mile away given similaritities out west to past instances this season...most prominently 1/11.

Yes...Chris can hold me to this. The early 2030s are a very imporant test for me.

120 hours.....capitulation was Saturday. Saturday AM everyone woke up naked in a hot tub with their laptops in hand....by Sunday AM they were all lying tits up.

Stare at his laptop and post images of 2/28 on X.

Yes, valid point.

Yes and no....can you look me in my virtual eyes and tell me the aggresssive northern stream isn't wreaking havoc with models in the medium range this year?? 48 hours if probably hyperbole, but flip it....84 hours is not. I blogged on Friday night that tomorrow would not be a big deal....guidance was converging on a NE blizzard at that time....then Saturday...POOF.

I the crux of the issue is that while many of your claims likely have at least some validity, most view it has natural variability and that should be the baseline assumption for now. I know you ultimately assert that you are open to new information moving forward and are not resigned to this being permanent, but I think this issue is that your tone seems to suggest that your baseline assumption is that it will be permanent moving forward. Maybe I am off base, but that is how it comes across to me.

You are preaching to the choir....I'm in your camp, however, its obviously going to begin impacting NYC snowfall before it is mine. I don't think Don (I know I am not) is convinced that NYC is alreading being impacted, either....he was simply entertaining the possibility that NYC is in the early stages.

I think part of the disconnect between us is due to the difference in perspective given our locales. This is simply regression to the mean for me, as evidenced by the 60" average since 2015, though that looks to drop after this season. See Don's point regarding NYC potentially being in the early stages of decline, but not yet Boston...I'm on the NH border.

It probably won't end up a ratter....probably in the 2009-2010 camp....below average snowfall and immensely frustrating.

If we were talking a Dec 2007 stretch, then I would consider it....but 14" isn't worth it. I'll take a 30"er that begins melting after it falls.