40/70 Benchmark

I don't care to study the charts for day 10, but looks like its trying to give my area some CF love again, looking at the sucker hole inland a bit...

I expected to get some retribution on you this month....if you recall, I have been invoking January 1987 and 2003 snowfall distribution patterns for this January dating back to last fall.

What, you mean I-95 voodoo dolls aren't a thing in Albuquerque?

Are you serious? 1.5" and 13-16" gradient over 4 miles??

You can't win with him if you live on the east coast.....first I get accused of copying his work, now I'm scoffed at because I "don't forecast anything and its the same every year"....well, then what does that say about his work if I am apparently plagiarizing his stuff? And how can I be copying him if I am apparently biased towards east coast snow and cold?? You compliment his efforts and it goes ignored....he's just a confrontation seeking missile. Its truly a bizarre, dysfunctional and maladaptive pattern of behavior.

You had the buzzard's luck last weekend that had plagued me for several years.

Coastal areas should join in more the second half of the month and most especially February. I won't be surprised if this next one is another interior focus, but shouldn't be a wash out on the coast like last weekend.

Yea, don't need a great track to get buried in that one....just for jackpot. And before anyone asks, yes....I am satisfied after that last one. If I get another one great, but I would like to get you coastal guys on the board.

I do slightly better than you do per EURO NARCAN.

Close enough to my identified timeframe from early November. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5 Seems to have some large scale tele support.

Yea, took one look at the low position and threw up a bit. Still nets me around a foot, though. We should have antecedent cold for once.

Active January Pattern to Continue Degree of Winter Weather Impact to be Determined. The next in a line of significant storm systems to impact southern New England this month is on tap for Wednesday, however, it looks to be primarily a rain and wind threat with the system tracking through the great lakes. The primary considerations for this system will be high wind and heavy rains, which will combine with snow melt from the this past weekend's storm to potentially cause some flooding in poor drainage areas. Significant snowfall is possible for northern ski areas given the late transfer to the coast as the system approaches the developing NAO block. The block will continue to become stronger and more entrenched further to the west throughout the duration of the week, such that it will be better positioned to induce a faster coastal transfer with respect to the approaching storm system next weekend. Better Chance for Some Wintry Impact Southern New England Next Weekend Given the modeled strength and positioning of the developing block, there should be some trends toward faster redevelopment of the next system over the weekend. But whether or not it will be enough to result in a significant winter storm for southern New England remains to be seen.

Rain , of course, Wednesday, but room for positive trends with respect to the weekend. I think we will see it trend, but how much (enough)? https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/active-january-pattern-to-continue.html

First of all, some of the past few seasons have shared some similarities that had Boston in the general vicinity of...you guessed it, 50" of snowfall. 2020-2021 38.6 0 2021-2022 54.0 0 People have different learning styles...and learning is kind of a prerequisite for forecasting. I learn by reading and writing, you apparently learn by looking out your window in order to devise myopic, parochial IMBY analogs....which have all yielded pretty similar results, BTW. You do you-

1997-1998 is not a very good analog....the forcing is much further west, in fact so far west that it has enveloped some of the Maritime continent, which is why it has been warm.....this year has been far more similar to years like 2016, 1995, 2007and to a lesser degree 1973 in that regard. As far as the polar domain not guaranteeing anything, I agree....nothing is a lock. But it's important element to have on your side if looking for cold in the mid latitudes. There is some extended guidance getting a segment of the PV in the vicinity of Hudson Bay in the longer range, so we will see what happens. Could winter still suck in the east? Of course, but odds are better that it won't than many of the years that you have mentioned.

And I'm amused that you seem to think I went big winter in the east....I forecasted warm with near normal snowfall.

You seem to ignore the polar domain, which is likely since you largely failed to acknowledge how badly you whiffed on it last season...instead opting for denial in lieu of acceptance of the fact that you were right for the wrong reason. I'm sure that that you'll resort to some line about how the PDO is more important than the NAO, but the fact of the matter is that polar fields are more often than not crucial during El Niño.

GEM blows, too.

I figured the GFS sucked from the lack of comments and sure enough....

Sunday Snow Forecast Fairly Well Amounts Slightly Heavier Inland and Lower Than Forecast Immediate Coast Here are the snowfall amounts from yesterday's storm versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call. The forecast overall was a high quality effort, however, there were two glaring issues. 1) The 8-14" area of maximum forecast snowfall, while generally accurate, would have been better served to reflect 12-18" and be positioned ever so slightly to the south of where it was in the forecast. There also should have been a secondary area over northwestern Connecticut. 2) The more glaring error was the forecast for 5-10" along the immediate coast in the densely populated Boston area, whereas the lower levels remained warm enough to limit accumulations to as low as 3.1" at Boston's Logan International Airport. However, amounts of over 6" were observed just away from the ocean (6.5" Brookline, MA) in the Boston area, as well as over interior southeastern Mass (6.25" in Taunton, MA). Suffice to say, the gradient along the east coast was not quite sharp enough to reflect the thermal changes from the marine influence. Final Grade: B+

http://<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">500mb height anomalies &amp; height anomaly analog dates from the Jan 8 00z Canadian Ensemble Mean for days 6-10, centered on Jan 16th.<br><br>9 of the 10 analog dates are from El Ninos and 4 of the 10 dates are from 3 of the all-time great Greenland Blocking winters (59-60, 68-69, 09-10) <a href="https://t.co/UTtodef25c">pic.twitter.com/UTtodef25c</a></p>&mdash; griteater (@griteater) <a href="https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1744378019953754594?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">January 8, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

...then proceed to attribute it to CC

Reminds me of the OT drama.

Why not just leave instead of reposting all of the crap you're complaining about?