40/70 Benchmark

Man, the atmosphere is just trolling us, at this point....its as though it could sense your interest in that potential, and abruptly withdrew. Interesting in a morbid sense....

January was bad luck, but there is no question that February shit the bed and December was worse than thought....at least AFAIC. Sure, we missed a nice window for a storm in February, too, but the month was just much less favorable than I had predicted in general. It was much worse than predicted and the bad luck carried over.

Yea, you give me an awful La Nina set up and an awful El Nino set up, then I'll take the shitty La Nina....at least there is a better bet of having cold near by. If its a crap El Nino, then the entire continent is furnaced. That said, I think we need to pray for an extremely active tropical season for any hope of avoiding another shit year.

One thing you won't see my do is chase a forecast...once I am confident, I will bail faster than @qg_omegaduring an impending blizzard.

Yea, look...I clearly have made some mistakes this season but its over, outside of ski country, barring some fluke bowling ball. Sure, it will cool off mid March....news flash; it won't remain 60 all month- I will look at this more in May, but in addition to most of the cold dumping on the other side of the globe and the loading west (again) when we have seen it....the favorable periods that I forsaw, although timed correctly, were just very fleeting...especially in February. I feel like my January call was okay, but December and February have been brutal. I think I will get March right.

I had never it considered until Raindance drew my attention to it the past couple of La Nina seasons....it seems to play a role in the alignment of the extra tropical atmosphere during the following winter in cold ENSO seasons.

Old man winter this season was like Michael Myers in "Halloween Ends".

Yes, I agree. ACE will need to be over 200 for me to even consider it.

And your exact verbiage was a "better" winter in the east...do me a favor....go though the high ACE years and show me a worse winter than this one... I'm not saying forecast forecast 1995-1996 due to high ACE La Nina....rather a fighting chance to avoid another anemic year.

That's the thing....an extraordinarily active tropical season coupled with a healthy La Nina is probably the key to disarming that marine heat wave, just as the super El Nino of 2016 aided in its configuration. But I get it...we're all human and its difficult to imagine a decent eastern winter right now.

How is it a wish cast? Silly accusation without anything to back it up. The data supports high ACE/better eastern winter correlation...likely due to how the how the extreme heat transport impacts the extra tropical Pacific. Even Raindance will tell you that.

.24" rainfall.

1995 is the perfect example of that.

Yea...or moderate is fine.

Well, like I said....especially in season, he doesn't offer alot of speculation on the extended range that exceeds simple data inrepretation....once the data changes, he will change...just admits he doesn't "know if its right". He is more a medium range guy.

That's the thing...I think they are related....that and La Nina orientation in stronger events factors in.

I was away in the Marines for that....I was gone from mid January into early August....just came home on leave to get boned by PDII.

2005 was the worst...I remmber that May, I was commuting my first year at UML...it was a blustery nor' easter with temps in the 40s like every weekend.

Assuming a high ACE/La Nina, really the only subpar season is 1998-1999...and once you get above 200 ACE they are all decent...2005-2006 probably being the floor.

DT pulled the plug like a week or two ago....last year he pulled the plug in December....he is more focused on data interpreation than long range predicitng, though.

Overrated, Yes. But I would still rather have it all things being equal.

Warm spring, and I still had some snow piles around town in June. Nuts.

He thought it would be better than this and he thought last year would be good.

Agreed.

Especially after next year we are going to enter into a stretch of a few years that will not feature much high latitude blocking at all IMO, so the extra tropical Pacific needs to improve.