40/70 Benchmark

I honestly just debating about very extended lead...nothing more or less.

It is to a degree.....this is why the forcing has been biased so far west relative to the max SST anomalies....why December was warm and why January looked like a La Nina. And yes, the PAC jet extension made December more extreme, agreed. But there is no denying there is residual cool ENSO GLAAM....this El Nino has some La Nina DNA cooked into it.

We'll see....hopefully I am wrong. ...its roughly a two week+ window IMO, then winter is over and out-

The structure of the Pacific dipole still favors a predisposition towards the MC and often times that really extended guidance will adjust to account for that at shorter leads.

Don't underestimate the ability of this El Nino to end up in the MC at least excuse imaginable.

I can see the MJO reemerging in the MC continent, which adds up with my analog composite.

I could see it run some into March, but I think the 10th is pushing it....

I'd give it a good 2 weeks or so...

This is not me saying you suck its really just me picking up on you not being very good.

Hey, Jerry, how much did you get in that huge storm back on the 7th?

Around a foot.

I think it takes until sometime in early March, when the PV starts to tighten up again and the MJO re-emerges from the COD into the Maritime continent. That is also a subjective statement.....I was thinking in terms of snowfall...not a tall taks near the coast.

February 2024 Preview The previously referenced 1/22 to 2/5 storm window is likely to conclude with tremendous additional unrealized potential, as the combination of a southward displaced OMEGA block and a Pacific short wave acting as a kicker will ensure that a powerful southern stream shortwave can not amplify on the east coast to any degree. Thus the month of February is destined to begin just as January ended, with a large degree of unrealized potential. But the question of whether or not that will remain common theme during the month is much more nebulous. Quiet Start to February 2024 May be Misleading February Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1977,1978,1980,1983,1995,2003,2007,2010(x2) The world of weather can often be quite deceiving, as evidenced on a monthly level by near record levels of precipitation in the absence of extreme warmth resulting in so little snowfall along the east coast to date. There can also be deception on a seasonal level, as Mother Nature can often be quite coy about what may stand between the general public and the highly coveted a reunion with spring. And there continue to be numerous signs, as there have in past El Niño seasons, that there answer just maybe plenty. This was strongly implied last fall: The apex of intense high latitude blocking conjoins with frequent PNA flexes to mark the pinnacle of the season for winter weather fans across the eastern US, especially the mid Atlantic region. The coastal plain should be the focus, as more winter storm threats should follow the early month NESIS window. The culmination of the seasonal progression of El Niño results in a Modoki like configuration as the event decays. The recovery of the PV is accompanied by more prominent RNA to fuel modification and an early end to winter throughout most of the east late in the month and into early March. But not before another Archambault window from about February 11 through March 3, which may also place an emphasis on the Mid Atlantic. Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite (1951-2010): (1991-2010) The transition from canonical early season form to full-fledged Modoki is apparent. February is obviously the coldest month of the DM composite across the east. February 2024 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: Temperatures range from near normal to as much as 2F below across New England to as much as 2-4F below normal across the Mid Atlantic. 1991-2020: February 2024 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: The general thesis for this month continues to be well supported. Although perhaps the forecast departures of -2 to -4F over the mid Atlantic and near normal to +2 over New England will ultimately prove too cool yet again. Time will tell- But what does remain clear is that the apparent quiet first half of the month seems reflected not only in the forecast analog package: But also by latest guidance. The frustration will then mount for fans of winter, as a reinvigoration of the Pacific jet leads to another warm up next week, despite the eventual return of high latitude blocking. This is illustrated via the ensemble mean as simply a stochastic reaction to the breakdown of the current OMEGA block. The ridge weakens as is translates eastward and over the forecast area, as more energy simultaneously crashes heights to the west as part of a Rosby wave train reaction. This warm up will be ephemeral in nature, as the MJO is forecast by both the GFS and European suites to decrease in amplitude as it enters phase 8 by mid month. This is congruent with tropical forcing moving into the central Pacific/Indian Ocean and weakening before potentially reemerging in the Maritime continent to induce a warm up either very late in the month of February or early in March. This coincides with the reconfiguration of the Pacific in a potent Aleutian low regime with a powerful western CONUS ridge. 00z EPS: 00z GEFS: 00z GEPS: The reinvigoration of high latitude blocking/weakening PV will this time potentially be team with the reconfigured Pacific to culminate in a period of cross polar flow and a great deal of storminess. In the mean time, enjoy the break in the weather because the bulk of winter still awaits-

January Forecast a Modest Success Here is a review of the January forecast Narrative from November 11th: January 2024 Outlook January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2) "This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5, however, there is a possibility that it will be focused to the south of New England. The PNA should remain variable, which will continue to fuel an active pattern as the PV grows increasingly more disturbed in the wake of a SSW during the window from about Christmas through January 8. It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of moisture availability". Lets begin with a review of the behavior of the major teleconnections and an analysis of the forecast. The NAO was volatile and essentially neural, with a mean value of approximately -.13 for the month. The behavior of the AO can be characterized as very similar with a mean value of about -.22. Finally, the PNA, while averaging slightly positive during the month of February at a value of .37, belies the true nature of the pattern. First of all, the one negative interlude diring month coicided with the arctic outbreak, thus ensuring that it loaded west. Additionally, the +PNA periods were largely biased to the west. This synoptic nuance was much like January 2023 in the sense that having the lower heights concentrated just off of the west coast actually reenforced deeper negative anomalies along the west in what was more representative to a RNA (-PNA) pattern. This is evident in the monthly composite below. Note the ridge positioned off of the west coast, with the deep negative anomalies over the western CONUS as a response. This is in comparison to the forecast H5 composite for the month January, which had slightly lower over the east than reality due to the Pacific ridge, presumably as a result of residual cool ENSO GLAAM and a very warm western Pacific. The result was that the month was slightly milder than forecast across the forecast region. Temperatures were expected to finish the month anywhere from near normal to about +2F over New England and near normal to as much as 2F below average over the mid Atlantic. However, New England finished more like +1 to +3F and the mid Atlantic near normal to +1F. This modest positive departure from forecast temp anomalies is in large part because of the mid month arctic outbreak loading west as a direct result of the aforementioned low Western CONUS heights. While this was a theme in the analog package, it was more pronounced than forecast. The forecast precipitation composite was heavily flawed, as January 2024 has been one of the wetter months of January on record along much of the east coast. But it was stipulated in the forecast that this was likely to be the case. "It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of moisture availability". And it indeed was an issue. This is likely due to an active sub tropical jet working in concert with a a great deal of mass flux, as evidenced by the volatility of the major teleconnections. Overall the narrative for the month of January was largely accurate. The snowfall distribution for the month was indeed heavily weighted towards the interior, as forecast, in large part due to the major storm that occurred January 6-7th. Additionally, there was in fact a major volar vortex disruption as forecast (SSW), however, it occured 9 days outside of the specified 12/25-1/8 window, on January 17 per Judah Cohen. Although the first of two identified seasonal windows for a major east coast snow storm looks to pass unceremoniously (1/22-2/5), the period did not want for opportunity. The first threat, which technically occurred just prior to the onset of the period around January 20, was simply not afforded enough wave space for the follow up polar vortex lobe to amplify. However, the potential did not go unnoticed by CIPS, which flagged matches to the days leading up to the Great Blizzard of 1978 (a January & February analog) and the Blizzard of January 1996 (residual cool ENSO GLAAM) as viable synoptic analogs. And the second round of potential within this window is set to occur on around February 5th.

January 2024 Forecast Review & February Preview January Forecast a Modest Success Here is a review of the January forecast Narrative from November 11th: January 2024 Outlook January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2) "This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5, however, there is a possibility that it will be focused to the south of New England. The PNA should remain variable, which will continue to fuel an active pattern as the PV grows increasingly more disturbed in the wake of a SSW during the window from about Christmas through January 8. It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of moisture availability". Lets begin with a review of the behavior of the major teleconnections and an analysis of the forecast. The NAO was volatile and essentially neural for the month. The behavior of the AO can be characterized as very similar with volatile behavior that averaged essentially neutral in the aggregate. The polar domain evolved largely as forecast. Finally, the PNA, while averaging slightly positive during the month of February, belies the true nature of the pattern. First of all, the one negative interlude diring month coicided with the arctic outbreak, thus ensuring that it loaded west. Additionally, the +PNA periods were largely biased to the west. This synoptic nuance was much like January 2023 in the sense that having the lower heights concentrated just off of the west coast actually reenforced deeper negative anomalies along the west in what was more representative to a RNA (-PNA) pattern. This is evident in the monthly composite below. Note the ridge positioned off of the west coast, with the deep negative anomalies over the western CONUS as a response. This is in comparison to the forecast H5 composite for the month January, which had slightly lower over the east than reality due to the Pacific ridge, presumably as a result of residual cool ENSO GLAAM and a very warm western Pacific. The result was that the month was slightly milder than forecast across the forecast region. Temperatures were expected to finish the month anywhere from near normal to about +2F over New England and near normal to as much as 2F below average over the mid Atlantic. However, New England finished more like +1 to +3F and the mid Atlantic near normal to +1F. This modest positive departure from forecast temp anomalies is in large part because of the mid month arctic outbreak loading west as a direct result of the aforementioned low Western CONUS heights. While this was a theme in the analog package, it was more pronounced than forecast. The forecast precipitation composite was heavily flawed, as January 2024 has been one of the wetter months of January on record along much of the east coast. But it was stipulated in the forecast that this was likely to be the case. "It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of moisture availability". And it indeed was an issue. This is likely due to an active sub tropical jet working in concert with a a great deal of mass flux, as evidenced by the volatility of the major teleconnections. Overall the narrative for the month of January was largely accurate. The snowfall distribution for the month was indeed heavily weighted towards the interior, as forecast, in large part due to the major storm that occurred January 6-7th. Additionally, there was in fact a major volar vortex disruption as forecast (SSW), however, it occured 9 days outside of the specified 12/25-1/8 window, on January 17 per Judah Cohen. Although the first of two identified seasonal windows for a major east coast snow storm looks to pass unceremoniously (1/22-2/5), the period did not want for opportunity. The first threat, which technically occurred just prior to the onset of the period around January 20, was simply not afforded enough wave space for the follow up polar vortex lobe to amplify. However, the potential did not go unnoticed by CIPS, which flagged matches to the days leading up to the Great Blizzard of 1978 (a January & February analog) and the Blizzard of January 1996 (residual cool ENSO GLAAM) as viable synoptic analogs. And the second round of potential within this window is set to occur on around February 5th. February 2024 Preview The previously referenced 1/22 to 2/5 storm window is likely to conclude with tremendous additional unrealized potential, as the combination of a southward displaced OMEGA block and a Pacific short wave acting as a kicker will ensure that a powerful southern stream shortwave can not amplify on the east coast to any degree. Thus the month of February is destined to begin just as January ended, with a large degree of unrealized potential. But the question of whether or not that will remain common theme during the month is much more nebulous. Quiet Start to February 2024 May be Misleading February Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1977,1978,1980,1983,1995,2003,2007,2010(x2) The world of weather can often be quite deceiving, as evidenced on a monthly level by near record levels of precipitation in the absence of extreme warmth resulting in so little snowfall along the east coast to date. There can also be deception on a seasonal level, as Mother Nature can often be quite coy about what may stand between the general public and the highly coveted a reunion with spring. And there continue to be numerous signs, as there have in past El Niño seasons, that there answer just maybe plenty. This was strongly implied last fall: The apex of intense high latitude blocking conjoins with frequent PNA flexes to mark the pinnacle of the season for winter weather fans across the eastern US, especially the mid Atlantic region. The coastal plain should be the focus, as more winter storm threats should follow the early month NESIS window. The culmination of the seasonal progression of El Niño results in a Modoki like configuration as the event decays. The recovery of the PV is accompanied by more prominent RNA to fuel modification and an early end to winter throughout most of the east late in the month and into early March. But not before another Archambault window from about February 11 through March 3, which may also place an emphasis on the Mid Atlantic. Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite (1951-2010): (1991-2010) The transition from canonical early season form to full-fledged Modoki is apparent. February is obviously the coldest month of the DM composite across the east. February 2024 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: Temperatures range from near normal to as much as 2F below across New England to as much as 2-4F below normal across the Mid Atlantic. 1991-2020: February 2024 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: The general thesis for this month continues to be well supported. Although perhaps the forecast departures of -2 to -4F over the mid Atlantic and near normal to +2 over New England will ultimately prove too cool yet again. Time will tell- But what does remain clear is that the apparent quiet first half of the month seems reflected not only in the forecast analog package: But also by latest guidance. The frustration will then mount for fans of winter, as a reinvigoration of the Pacific jet leads to another warm up next week, despite the eventual return of high latitude blocking. This is illustrated via the ensemble mean as simply a stochastic reaction to the breakdown of the current OMEGA block. The ridge weakens as is translates eastward and over the forecast area, as more energy simultaneously crashes heights to the west as part of a Rosby wave train reaction. This warm up will be ephemeral in nature, as the MJO is forecast by both the GFS and European suites to decrease in amplitude as it enters phase 8 by mid month. This is congruent with tropical forcing moving into the central Pacific/Indian Ocean and weakening before potentially reemerging in the Maritime continent to induce a warm up either very late in the month of February or early in March. This coincides with the reconfiguration of the Pacific in a potent Aleutian low regime with a powerful western CONUS ridge. 00z EPS: 00z GEFS: 00z GEPS: The reinvigoration of high latitude blocking/weakening polar vortex will this time potentially be team with the reconfigured Pacific to culminate in a period of cross polar flow and a great deal of storminess. In the mean time, enjoy the break in the weather because the bulk of winter still awaits-

Just keep spin-cycling June 1995 through April 1996 with a more prevalent WAR during the summer and a hair more N stream during the winter.

Kind of lacked 2015 in magnitude department, thouugh....as far as storm and peak deopth. Jan 8, 1996 was actually a bit less impressive to me than this past January 7...100% honest. I would rank it ahead.

Its close between 1995-1996 and 2014-2015...depends on my mood. If I have a real hankering for the D Drip...2015. But 1995-1996 was perfect in every way and at the end of the day gave me 12" more snow.

Its due primarily to lower averages, but also SNE being more prone to ocean storms.

Yea, from SNE points south....it changes for NNE.

And lets get one thing straight...snowfall has sucked near the coast. Not inland. Much of the interior is near normal. I know my spot isn't the best example, but if you extrapolate January outpout through February and March, I am over 80". Pretty sure much of the interior can participate in that exercise and arrive at least near normal. Yes, it has been very warm because of December....January was nothing extreme. More awful luck to get that much precipitation in the absence of exotic warmth and have that little snow near the coast.

I guess....but will anyone but Kevin care if we get another Feb 2013, 1983 like event? Plenty will enjoy that. Maybe even Jan 2016, Feb 2010 shifted north....

I wouldn't call it "11th hour" in a warm ENSO.....especially over the past 20 years....just hitting 6ish-

Welcome back, man.